Paul Articulates – The Alvarez Enigma

Francisco Alvarez is out of control. Again.

The former top prospect with undeniable power and a strong arm has now been in the major leagues for four full seasons plus his abbreviated call-up year.  He has also been back in the minor leagues for many injury rehabilitation trips and other remedial tune-ups.

He is that "can’t miss" prospect that always seems to miss.  Why?  He cannot control his passion to make the big play.  Huge swings and misses on balls that he could have driven into the opposite field gap.  Wild throws on the 1-in-100 chance that he can gun down a runner.  This is all hero behavior in a game that much more often rewards patience. 

We have seen him come back from rehab assignments with a fresh new outlook – better appearances at the plate with more selectivity on pitches to swing at; better blocking of pitches in the dirt.  We have also seen that control reversed as soon as success starts creeping in.  

It seems that each big home run is followed by several at bats where he takes mighty swings at balls that cannot be reached.  One caught stealing is followed by unwarranted pick-off throws that eventually find their way into the outfield.  Pitchers exploit his inability to lay off the high fastball above the strike zone and sliders that begin as strikes and dive out of the zone.

The Mets are faced with a tough dilemma: stick with the guy that has immense talent, or part with the guy who has repeatedly shown that he does not have the emotional maturity to harness that talent.  

In his best days, he looks like the player that was projected to be a star catcher for many years to come.  One could use examples of his great games to argue that with a little maturity and the right coaching, he can fulfill the past projections and become a threat in the middle of the lineup and a reliable backstop on defense.

In his worst days, like yesterday’s loss to the Nationals, he hurts the team with poor at-bats in critical situations and costs the team runs with defensive miscues.  One could use the recurring regressions to argue that he should be packaged in a trade and replaced by a steadier influence behind the plate like Luis Torrens.

Either way, Francisco Alvarez will find a way to haunt the Mets.

The Mets’ farm system has shown some very good depth recently, with several promising pitchers like Scott, McLean, Thornton, and Tong coming up.  Their middle-infield depth has soared in the post-trade deadline months.  Similarly, they have developed some very high quality outfield talent like Benge, Ewing, and Morabito.  But the catching progression leaves much to be desired, so there is no heir apparent to Alvarez in the pipeline.  

Yes, we have seen some positive steps by Kevin Parada recently and there have been flashes of brilliance by Chris Suero, but neither seems MLB ready right now.  Hayden Senger is a top notch defensive catcher but despite a better year in 2026 is still not a bat that the team is looking for.  You have to go all the way down to St. Lucie before finding a star-caliber catching prospect in Yovanny Rodriguez but he has years of development in front of him.  There is not an in-house solution for next year.

So the choices are not clear, but the Mets have several months to think about the high stakes risk-reward trade-off with their catching position.