RVH – The Bottom Between Four & Six: One Week Later

 

Last week, we introduced the Mets’ unusual race for the best possible odds of receiving a protected top-six selection in the 2027 Draft.

One week later, the Mets are playing well.

Very well.

With another win Wednesday night in Miami, New York has now won four straight, improved to 68–78, and continued one of the strongest stretches of baseball in the league.

The tradeoff is the same one we discussed last week: every win makes the Mets’ potential Draft position a little more precarious.

New York currently sits seventh among lottery-eligible clubs. Tankathon’s estimated probability of the Mets landing one of the six lottery selections remains 39.4%, down from 63.6% when we checked the board one week ago.

Remember the distinction: finishing among the bottom six does not automatically protect the Mets’ first pick. It only improves their lottery odds. Under the current CBT rule, only an actual selection from No. 1 through No. 6 protects the first pick and shifts the Mets’ projected 10-place penalty to their second-highest selection.

Reverse Standings and Top-Six Lottery Odds

Raw rank	Team	Record	Lottery status	Top-six odds
1	Colorado	55–90	Eligible	87.7%
2	Angels	56–90	Eligible	87.7%
3	Athletics	58–89	Eligible	87.7%
4	San Fran.	62–85	Ineligible	—
5	Kansas City	64–82*	Eligible	73.3%
6	Washington	67–81	Eligible	62.9%
7	Detroit	67–79	Eligible	51.3%
8	Mets	68–78	Eligible	39.4%
9	Seattle	68–78	Eligible	28.8%
10	Minnesota	69–77	Eligible	20.0%
11	Cincinnati	69–76*	Eligible	15.8%
12	Baltimore	71–76	Eligible	12.6%
13	St. Louis	72–75	Eligible	10.4%
14	Miami	72–75	Eligible	9.3%
15	Pittsburgh	72–73*	Ineligible	—

*September 9 game not yet final at this writing.

Colorado moves ahead of the Angels in the raw standings after the Rockies’ loss tonight, while San Francisco improved to 62–85 with its third straight win. Washington lost again, falling to 67–81, while Detroit won and moved to 67–79. Those two clubs have now flipped lottery positions ahead of the Mets.

San Francisco and Pittsburgh remain ineligible for the lottery under current rules. The White Sox are also ineligible but remain outside this bottom group.

Teams tied in winning percentage are ultimately ordered using MLB’s prior-season-record tiebreaker. The probabilities shown here are Tankathon estimates based on the current standings and current CBA rules.

The Bottom Dwellers Since the Deadline

Here is where the story gets more interesting.

The 2026 trade deadline was August 3. Using August 4, the first full day afterward, gives us a cleaner way to compare how these clubs have performed with essentially the rosters they chose to carry through the remainder of the season.

The Mets have not merely outperformed the teams around them.

They are 21–12 since August 4, a .636 winning percentage.

Rank	Team	Since Aug. 4	Win%	GB Mets
1	Mets	21–12	.636	—
2	Kansas City*	18–15	.545	3.0
3	Baltimore	17–18	.486	5.0
4	Cincinnati*	16–18	.471	5.5
5	Minnesota	13–20	.394	8.0
6	Seattle	13–20	.394	8.0
7	Detroit	13–21	.382	8.5
8	Washington	12–23	.343	10.0

*September 9 game still pending.

That is the most important context for understanding how quickly the Draft board has moved.

Detroit and Washington did not move below the Mets because New York collapsed.

Quite the opposite.

The Mets have played some of the best baseball in the sport while the teams competing with them for lottery position have largely struggled.

Since August 4, New York has now outplayed every club in this comparison by at least three games.

Washington presents the clearest immediate threat to the Mets’ lottery position. The Nationals lost again Wednesday, have now dropped seven straight and are just one loss behind New York despite having played two more games. They also finish the season with three games against Detroit followed by three against the Mets.

Detroit is more difficult to handicap. The Tigers finally won Wednesday, but their 13–21 record since August 4 has pushed them into the sixth eligible lottery position. Their season-long run differential still suggests a better club than their recent record.

Seattle matters just as much. Wednesday’s win moved the Mariners to 68–78 — exactly even with the Mets — although the prior-season tiebreaker currently places New York ahead of Seattle in the Draft order.

Kansas City remains three games below the Mets in our post-deadline comparison and several games ahead of them in the reverse standings. The Royals therefore remain increasingly difficult for New York to catch.

Sixteen Games Left

The Mets now have 16 games remaining.

And Wednesday’s result clarifies the central tension of this exercise even further.

At the current seventh lottery seed, their estimated probability of landing a top-six selection remains roughly four in ten.

But there is another force working increasingly hard against their Draft position:

The Mets themselves.

They are 21–12 since the deadline. Young players are contributing. The team is playing competitive baseball. And they just swept a road series in Miami.

That is exactly what September should provide in a lost season.

There is no reason to root against that progress.

It simply creates an unusual tradeoff. Every sign that the Mets may be emerging from the wreckage of 2026 also makes it somewhat harder to preserve the premium Draft position that the wreckage created.

One week ago, the Mets appeared to be sitting relatively comfortably inside this race.

Now they are seventh.

Seattle is tied with them.

Detroit and Washington are immediately below them.

And there are still 16 games left.

The Bottom Between Four & Six is officially a race.

Sources: MLB standings and schedules; MLB current CBA/CBT rules; Tankathon for estimated lottery probabilities. Post-deadline records calculated from games beginning August 4.

Final qualification: this analysis applies the rules currently in effect. The current CBA expires December 1, 2026, and the rules governing the 2027 Draft lottery and CBT-pick treatment could change under the next agreement.