BILLY AMICK
The mighty 6’8” Aaron Judge, when healthy, is really something. ALL RISE!
But he was not a superstar from day one as a pro.
After he was drafted 32nd overall, he started his pro career in 2014 at age 22, and did well in A ball, hitting .308 in 131 games, with a K per game. But it was A ball at age 22.
The next year, in 2015, the 23 year old hit .255 in AA and AAA in 124 games, with 20 HRs and 144 Ks. Good, not great.
In 2016, 93 games, 19 HRs, .270 in AAA, with 98 Ks. Very solid.
To that point, overall, good but not convincing that he’d be a MLB success.
Good, but not great, in-game power, and high K rate.
He got promoted late in 2016 to the Yankees, where he had 84 at bats, hit .179 with just 4 HRs and 42 Ks.
Bad debut.
The jury was clearly still out on Judge.
In 2017, though, he suddenly became THAT AARON JUDGE at age 25.
Billy Amick?
60th overall pick in 2024. 6’1” 220.
Age 21, in A ball in 2024, in just 63 at bats and 18 games, .222/.351/.413.
Age 22, in A ball, he missed 10 weeks with two injuries. In 59 games, he hit a commendable .307/.417/.450 with 4 HRs and 70 Ks in 266 PAs.
Unlike Judge’s first two pro years at age 22 and 23, in which Judge played 255 pro games, Amick had just 77 games in his first two years at a year younger age, leaving him less prepared to jump to AA and AAA.
NEVERTHELESS:
Age 23, this year, the Amick power game exploded.
In AA and AAA, through September 9, 36 HRs, 105 RBIs, in 113 games, with 146 Ks in 493 PAs and a slash of .228/.338/.529. (He added an opposite field 2 run homer/laser beam to right center on Saturday night, after 2 doubles Friday night).
After a cold season start through June, reflecting his adjusting to higher levels, he ignited in July (.278), August (.253), and September (.333).
19 HRs and 52 RBIs in that 47 game stretch, with 58 Ks and 22 walks.
Aaron Judge, defensively, is a premier outfielder. Billy Amick is a good glove at 1B, and a solid work-in-progress at 3B, with just 1 error at 1B and 7 in 48 games at 3B.
CONCLUSION:
The Amick power explosion is truly impressive, in that it came this season after promotion to the two highest minor league levels after just 77 games as a pro in A ball.
It is even more impressive that his last 47 games, if projected over 162 games, would total 66 HRs and 180 RBIs. Numbers that Aaron Judge could love.
His 2025 season when he hit a low power, but high average .307 shows that he isn’t completely reliant on power.
Challenges lie ahead, as they did for Judge, but Mets fans should feel extremely, if somewhat cautiously, excited about Billy Amick impacting the Mets as early as some time during 2027.
May he offensively be the next Aaron Judge…
I would have course settle for the next Pete Alonso.
AN AMICK/BATY/RICE ADDENDUM:
One thing I like about Billy Amick is he can “take a punch.”
In baseball, “a punch” is getting hit by a pitch.
He has been hit 24 times in 846 PAs. Once every 35 PAs.
Helps the OBP.
He has a solid .363 minor league career OBP.
In contrast, weak-kneed Brett Baty in the majors?
Just 9 plunks in 1,466 PAs. Once every 163 PAs.
Hence, his lousy .296 OBP.
Baty becoming another Mark Canha (who was HBP once every 29 PAs) would make Baty a MLB regular.
Why?
It would add 20-25 points to that oust .296 OBP. A .320 career OBP takes him from substandard to standard.
Sadly, Baty is in an entirely different food group than 37 HR Ben Rice, who was drafted 11 rounds later than Baty. Many of Rice’s homers are extra long grain, by the way. He only gets HBP a little more frequently than Baty, but Rice hitting .260 with 37 HRs doesn’t need the bruises to enhance his game. Baty does.
There is a lot of debate about whether Baty might break out in 2027. When you compare Baty’s stats to those of Ben Rice, you feel stupid pulling for Baty. You just wish he was Rice.
METS WIN 12-2 AT YANKEE STADIUM!
SIX homers. Boom, Boom, Boom, Boom, Boom, Boom. Six.
Every Mets player just rented a Bronx apartment. They wanna stay.
Zach Thornton was quite special, with a 7 inning, 2 run outing. just 81 pitches, 61 for strikes, and zero nerves. He froze Aaron Judge on a 95.5 MPH blazer on the outside corner. Yep - 95.5 MPH. That ain’t soft-toss, bro.
NICK IS 50/50
Nick Morabito had a painful debut earlier this season: 0 for 11, 9 Ks.
Since he returned? 0n base 50% of the time…10 of 20. And just one K!
Nick the Quick has his OBP very quickly up to .323. Awesome.
10 comments:
Amick
I will be thrilled if he someday gets a hit every four at-bats, as long as he keeps up the power
Other teams would promote both he and Pitre next opening day, especially if they were looking at 2027 as a transition year.
The Mets won't because, well, they're the Mets.
Thornton
Nobody expected this guy to exceed the expectations of Tong and Wenninger. Nobody.
Bito
I don't expect much from Nick, thus, I will be thrilled when he solidly develops into a viable fourth outfield option... however... I believe he will quickly be replaced when Aiden Robbins graduates.
Zac did. He is one confident kid. I think if Tong had Thornton’s make up, he’d already be a star.
I think Aiden Robbins arrives mid-2028, so Quick Nick has a great window to accelerate here. He gets on base, and steals in bunches at a very high success rate. Some guys steal a lot but get caught too much, not Nick.
He stole 91 of 106 in the minors the past two seasons, in just 232 games. Get him in 100 MLB games in 2027 and he will steal 25+ for you. He also hit 13 HRs this year, showing he has 10-15 HR power. I am most thrilled by his recent lack of Ks.
Zac's dad did. The rest of us? Pleasantly surprised.
Amick has clearly figured something out while adjusting to the much better pitching in AA and AAA. Once he gets a shot at MLB pitching, more adjustments will be required. Then we will see what he has.
Zac was great last year in the minors until he got hurt.
He had a bad minor league outing early this year, when Syracuse was no-hit, but walked 10 times. A classic.
But Zac sure throws STRIKES. I think his hitting 95.5 yesterday against Judge is a great sign that he will be in the 2027 rotation. That upped velo will help him keep hitters on the defensive.
There is no question that the power numbers of Amick is impressive. However, there is a tremendous amount of work needed before he is MLB ready. His strike out rate is too high. Currently around 30%. His in-zone contract rate is way too low. He is currently around 70% and ranks in the bottom 2%. He has way too much swing and miss in his swing. These numbers will probably go up/down accordingly, But when he makes contact, .....
When comparing his numbers, a close comp is Ryan Clifford.
Needs addition training in spraying
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