BASHING, SWISHING BILLY AMICK IS OK IN TODAY’S BASEBALL
Billy Amick!
A recently acquired minor league uber power hitter, strikes out a lot.
Some are concerned that his high K rate is a disqualifier to MLB success.
But, first consider the sluggers of the Chicago White Sox.
They have Colton Montgomery and Munetaka Murakami. Smash & Swish.
In 266 combined games thru Saturday, they crushed 63 HRs, drove in 156 runs.
Impressive, right, but…
In those 266 games, they had fanned a stunning 403 times (1.52 Ks per game) and hit just .203.
Unimaginable K rates, if it was still the 1950s.
Half that many would have concerned, if not alarmed, 1950’s baseball decision makers.
I think Belting Billy can do what the Chisox duo does, or better, by 2028.
Once he gets 300-500 more minors ABs to improve on his upward journey.
So…Billy is not “disqualified.”
Maybe Mashing Mark Vientos, who has fanned “just” 66 times in 277 PAs this year, needs to adopt the all-or-nothing approach of Montgomery and Murakami - would we be all that upset if Mark, over a similar 133 games, had 32 homers and 78 RBIs, while fanning 200 times and batting .203?
Because the White Sox seemingly wouldn’t be - distraught - they are rolling with those results from their duo. Just a smidge out of first place.
P.S.
Blasting Billy obliterated AA pitchers in Binghamton, post-trade; after that, promoted to Syracuse, he hit just .198 but with 8 homers in 91 at bats.
So, watch Billy in 2027, indeed. Why?
Watching Billy should be a real “blast”.
METS MINORS SEASONS ARE OVER, ROVER
Syracuse’s season ended Sunday, barely missing the playoffs with a 5-4 extra frame loss. You win some, you lose some.
I’ll do an “out of the ordinary” Syracuse Mets season recap this weekend.
The NY Mets are the only Mets organization team still standing.
And that, only until this Sunday. Monday, they golf.
You see, 12 teams will make the playoffs.
18 won’t.
The Mets won’t. Again.
The Braves will, again, though…
From a MLB.com article excerpt:
“This is the eighth time in nine years that the Braves have reached the postseason. Their greatest run during that stretch occurred in 2021, when they celebrated a World Series title with a Game 6 win here in Houston.
“You want to win the World Series and you can't get there without making the playoffs,” Braves center fielder Michael Harris II said.”
Harris said the obvious - and we know that the Mets miss the playoffs with extreme regularity, so they can want to win the World Series all they want, but the Mets must MAKE THE PLAYOFFS FIRST!
P.S.
Did you know that Gavin Cecchini is younger than Jorge Polanco?
Healthier, too.
THE GREEN NEW DEAL
Andy Green, well-liked in the clubhouse, and relatively successful so far with a trade-gored team, inking him to a 3 year deal.
Green is a great color. He seems like a great choice.
Andy Green is well-liked by Bo and other Mets vets. What’s not to like?
Carlos Mendoza always made me think of the Mendoza Line, by word association. That Line is a measure of substandard performance. I am glad the Mets have moved on from substandard and gone Green.
Other teams have to be GREEN with envy.
ALVAREZ IMPROVING…OR GOING IN REVERSE?
Before 2026, ALVY had fanned 273 times in 1056 PAs (a K every 3.86 PAs).
This year, 125 times in 408 PAs (a K every 3.26 PAs).
That’s a big regression. Improving? Better with age and experience? Nah.
25 comments:
Andy Green needs to learn one important thing: lose when you are supposed to (right now) and win when you are supposed to (2027).
Other teams are Green with envy that we have a manager that everyone in the organization wants.
Alvarez fans on every at-bat after he barrels one up. He is a power-holic. Can't lay off the juice.
He is not hitting enough HRs to justify doing that. He should ask himself, “what would Piazza do at the plate.” That is his path to success. Their power is similar. Their contact is not.
Quote on Green by Keith H in NY Post article:
“… baseball’s in his blood. It’s hard to get it out, and he has a love of the game,” Hernandez said. “He managed four years in San Diego, not a very good ball club. This is a second chance — second opportunity for him, not chance — with a young team that he’s very familiar with.
“Reminds me of Davey Johnson when he was managing down in Tidewater with that young ’80s bunch. It’s very important when you have young players that you have a manager that knows their abilities…I loved the fact that he pushed these players, pitchers as well as the everyday players. And I just think he’s the right guy for the job, and I’m absolutely thrilled.”
If he’s thrilled, I’m thrilled, too.
I will respond to all this pro-Green shite on Thursday 6am
Is there a lot to like about Billy Amick's game?
There is a LOT of swing and miss in his game. Some feel that "in-zone contract rate'. is a better measure of a better than strike out rate. Per FanGraphs, his "in-zone contract rate" has been in the high 66s before rising to around 70 percent. Anything under 80 percent is considered not good. Reference - Alverez and Vientos are in the high 70s; Soto, Lindor, Benge and Ewing are in the low to mid 80s.
The Mets do have a first baseman that has a higher "in-zone contract rate" than Amick that many are dismissing. One Ryan Clifford. Amick swings and misses a lot like Clifford.
I believe that when he does make contact, he has the power to hit the home runs (and drive the chicks crazy). He turns 24 this November. Therefore, 2027 will be a hugh year for him.
Steve, reasonable to consider that, but compare the career plate appearances of Amick vs. Clifford. Amick relatively is still very low in PAs. He was pushed up very aggressively. I see ample room for improvement. Just needs more reps. Hard for me to think good things about Clifford after this gosh-awful season.
Go for it!
Jeez... "swing and miss"...
there was a lot of that shite in Babe Ruth's game too
Steve, you have a problem with 108 ribbys?
I can not understand all the hate towards Alvarez on here almost daily. He currently is nowhere near the ball player we all thought he was going to be yet. Realize he is only 24, the same age most ballplayers have just made it to the big leagues, we shoud be in no rush to get rid of him yet. He currently, even with all his shortcomings is probably a top 10 cather in MLB, look up the stats. Yes, Torrens has had a great year, is a great defensive cather and has hit decent thid=s year but realize this is a career year for him. If we dump Alvarez who are you replacing him with while Alvarez goes onto become a star for someone else.
I love the 38 HRs and the 108 RBIs.
Granted, Clifford had a terrible 2026. But comparing 2025 Clifford to 2026 Amick, differences but not too much.
Tom - Clifford was drafted out of HS and Amick out of Tennessee. Think that accounts for the more MiLB ABs at a younger age.
I just think that, currently, Amick needs to a lot of improvement (contact rate / strikeouts) before I jump on the bus. Same applies to Clifford. I believe that both are very similar and need a lot of improvement before I would start projecting either player for 2028 Citi Field.
Mack - I see what you are pointing out but I do not totally believe it yet.
Clifford’s 2026 wasn’t terrible. It was mind blowingly bad.
Amick had 15 HRs in 36 AA/AAA games with the Mets. Incredible. I am hoping he can replicate Kyle Schwarber. 217 Ks in 151 games, stunningly high, but 45 HRs.
And he probably would leave and become a star by, say, replacing Realmuto in Philly.
Clifford never came close to these HR/RBI numbers. And his K/AB were far, far worse.
Please don't compare Clifford to Amick.
I am compelled to join in on a couple of posts here, starting with Alvarez. I will own up to being first on the no-Alvarez club. Here's why. Lots of reasons. 1. He has terrible hitting mechanics. Literally terrible. I showed this through several videos. He doesn't use the ground, has a poor kinetic sequence and as a result of both has poor plate coverage. I say this as someone who coaches body movement patterns in two sports. Second, he has been told more than once by people in the game how to change this, but has done nothing about it. Not true really. He does what all who are not mature enough to be disciplined does> He reverts to his comfort zone approach. Have you seen him hit well on a consistent basis against better pitchers? I haven't. He is the classic strikeout victim of up and in down and away. Want to know the reason. His kinematics are so bad he has to generate all his speed through his arms which he has to start early in his swing. Just watch him in action.
Two: his power has dropped off considerable. Three, he does not take strategic at bats. And his offense is the better part of his game. On the defensive side, as I have also pointed out, the team wins 33% of the games he catches; Torrens around 50%. In baseball the catcher is the brains of the team. Calling the game is the game. He is not good at this.
I would trade him. But if not, I would send him to a movement pattern specialist. If it takes that would be great and I would hold out hope for him offensively, though not defensively.
He is the best trade asset on the major league roster who does not figure in the long term future of the team. Other teams will believe they can fix him. There are genuine baseball voices within the Mets family/organization who share my views. I am more optimistic about him than they are because I know from experience that moving patterns can be changed with discipline and commitment and in his case, what he is working with is raw natural power that is plus and a movement pattern that is a disaster. So the day the season ends, I send him not to a hitting coach, the vast majority of whom are not movement pattern specialists, and get him over to movement specialists
As to Amick. He swings and misses a lot on strikes. He needs to cut down on that. I agree, but I think critics are missing two things here. First, unlike Clifford, his swing has way too much uppercut, which really hurts his contact in the zone. His problem is not, e.g. an inability to catch up with fastballs (as is the case with Baty for other reasons); nor is it his inability to recognize pitches (e.g. as it is with both Vientos and Alvarez -- outer half pitches with curve or slider spin). It is his approach angle. Relatedly, he has significant power and speed and needs to learn that his hit balls will rise because of his power/speed as speed increase spin and height on hit balls. When he learns to trust his HR power with a more level swing his swing and miss inside the zone will drop. That's what I expect good coaching will do for him next year. It's these more nuanced features that distinguish him from Clifford.
He is more like Schwarber than Clifford. Schwarber intentionally increased his uppercut a bit precisely as a choice that would create more homers but make him more vulnerable to pitches in the zone.
Tom - I guess that is part of my point. Amick is not even replicating Schwarber numbers regarding swings and misses that Schwarber had in MiLB. I don't think anyone will argue the point that MLB pitching is more difficult and that the underlying stats generally decrease.
I am not trying to say that Amick is not someone that we shouldn't be keeping an eye on. Only, that there is still a ton of work to be achieved before he is ready. Other than those 36 AAA games, there could be a big symmetry between Amick and Clifford (before his complete fall-off this year). I look forward to watching both Amick and Clifford next year.
Jules, I am not arguing your points about Alvarez batting issues but.... I still look at him who is probably going to hit you .230-260 with 15-25 Homers. To me that is not somebody you just dump without have a suitable replacement. For those that think Torrens is that guy I do not have that same faith. He is having a career year which he will likely not duplicate offensively. Yes he is a superior defensive catcher but our lineup can not afford to have automatic outs. The W/L splits are a small sample size and not sure you can come to a complete conclusion as there are other factors that come into play. Alvarez caught the majority of the games in the first half of the season when the Mets were playing there worse ball of the year with limited hitting. Torrens has caught the majority of the second half of the season when they have played much better. I believe Torrens is a few games under .500 while catching and Alvarez is around 10 (AI info). The issue is still who do you replace him with and are they going to be better. Cather is a hard position to fill and unless we get someone better we cant afford to give him away. He also is a low cost, less than Torrens, so who do you plan to replace him with?
Steve, I look at it differently on Amick.he had only 343 plate appearances as a pro before 2026. Then added543 more this year, at A and AA.
Only Benge did better with that limited pro plate appearances. Not Alonso, not McNeil, or anyone else. Wright came in young, but took until he had 1276 PAs before he started killing it in his 4th pro season.
I think, despite the Ks, Amick (a mid-2nd round pick) has done remarkably well. I think he has a chance to break thru in 2027.
I’d take Schwarber Lite from Amick.
Clifford just utterly collapsed in a heap this year. In 2025, Cliff looked less promising than Amick, but reasonable potential.But he cratered against pitching much easier than MLB pitching. He had a brief good September (32 at bats) but hit .120 in June, July and August!
I totally agree, Clifford more than cratered this year. (Cratered is really an understatement). I would totally agree the year older Amick has more power when he connects. I would agree that Clifford has more MiLB at bats because he started right out of high school while Amick went to college (Tennessee). I would agree that at the same level in 2025 that Amick played in 2026, Clifford only batted .237/.356/.493 with 29 home runs, 93 RBIs, and a strikeout rate of 31% in 481 ABs compared to Amick's .222/.328/.520 with 38 home runs and 108 RBIs and a strike out rate of 36% in 450 ABs.
I guess my point is, just as many were on the Clifford wagon in 2025 and abandon it in 2026 (rightly so), I believe we should appreciate what Amick has accomplished, especially after being traded, but I believe that there is a lot of work that needs to be done before I can anoint him as the future first baseman.
Looking forward to what they both do while playing on the same field next year.
I want to add one more Clifford perspective…the median team in his league allowed a little over 5 runs per games this year. So it was a league that a decent hitter should be able to hit in. Light hitting Hayden Senger hit far better than Clifford, too.
Dean, My fault for not expressing myself as clearly as I should have. I would never suggest getting rid of Alvarez. I believe he has significantly more trade value now than he has value to the team. In fact, he is probably the only regular on the team that is currently true of. The best situation would be for him to be able to tap into his raw talent offensively. I just don't see that happening as he is stubborn and the points I have made in the videos have been brought to his attention by people who have significantly more credibility than me.-- to no avail. In the long term, the team wants a defense first catcher capable of commanding the respect of the veteran pitchers and guiding the young ones. He's not that guy, so he's never going to be the number one option behind the plate. I believe in trading high, and in Alvarez's case his high power output year will be a distant memory in a year or two if he doesn't change his movement pattern..
My view has been consistent. Send him to a movement pattern coach, not a hitting instructor to help make his motion much more efficient and a power multiplier. If it takes that would be great. If not, there will be a team who believes all he needs is a change of scenery and be willing to part with something the Mets need for him.
I apologize if I gave the impression that I view Amick as comparable to Schwarber. My point is that both have difficulty with contact on strikes as a result of commitment to an overly uppercut swing.. They are also both incredibly powerful. I have no idea how many home runs Amick will hit were he to level out his swing a bit. Unlikely that he will match Schwarber. But it will increase his contact rate and my bet is that he will still hit more homers as a DH/1B than anyone else on the club, which is something we haven't had from our DH --- ever.
I am very enthusiastic about the Green hire. I'm interested to see if he makes any changes to his coaching staff. If there is an argument against Green, I have no idea what it would be. He is NEVER the story. The players respect him and play hard and he doesn't baby them. He challenges them to perform better. He answers questions honestly and is transparent with the press. He is the epitomy of a stable leader who calls no attention to himself. All he has left to do is win.
He had terrible teams in his first go round. He's done better with this group of throw-togethers, and he has quieted the storm.
I'd like to see the list of others who could have done all this under the same circumstances.
This is anything but a lazy hire IMHO
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