BREAKING NEWS - SP - Gave Ynoa

The Mets have traded SP Gabriel Ynoa to the Baltimore Orioles for... cash.

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 16 MARCOS MOLINA

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 16 MARCOS MOLINA

Boy, back in 2014, Marcos Molina had the Mets fans excited.  He was clearly the best pitcher in all of the NY Penn League, starting 12 games and going 7-3 with a sterling 1.77 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 91 Ks in 76 IP, at the tender age of 19.

He certainly looked like the next elite arm after Harvey, deGrom, Thor, Matz, and Wheeler...with lots of folks speculating as to where he'd fit in the Mets' rotation and when he'd make it to Queens. Hard fastball, mature stuff for his age...lot to love.

But some said his motion was very high stress and worried about his arm's durability.  Those folks, sadly, got it right.

Marcos faltered in St Lucie in 2015, going 1-5, 4.57 ERA in 41 IP before succumbing to the dreaded Tommy John Surgery jinx.  Which cost him the rest of 2015....and 2016.

He did get in some winter ball after the 2016 season, and did well enough, with 16.2 IP compiled, tossing to the tune of a 1.38 WHIP against strong offensive competition, but with only 8 K's.  But he stayed healthy.

Hopefully, he has had a fine prepping winter, looking to optimize his mechanics in order to stay healthy.

But the 6'3, 190 righty Molina is not without competition, given that the Mets' minors now has quality in it i.e., the likes of righty #1 pick Justin Dunn, and lefties PJ Conlon and Tom Szapucki, a trio who will serve as real competition in vying for Mets' 25 man roster spots by late 2018, with a roster that right now looks to be crowded with pitchers of very fine quality and quantity.  But you can never have enough good pitching, the saying goes.

So job 1, as Marcos most likely starts his season as a Binghamton Rumble Pony starter, is to get back to that dominating 2014 level, and stay healthy.  He is a name we've seemingly heard for years, but he is just turning 22 in March, so he has ample time to show that he can be a star for the Mets by, hopefully, 2019.

Wishing you a healthy, dominating season, Marcos.  

Casey Wentworth – On Reese Kaplan on Jay Bruce

Good article on Jay Bruce by Reese Kaplan.   However, he overlooks one very obvious thing despite touching on it for a moment in this article. Lucas Duda's contract (not unlike Granderson's) is up at the end of the 2017 season. So Mr. Kaplan, then knowing the outfield clutter currently on hand here, why not trade Lucas Duda now and get something decent back solving the outfield clutter situation entirely? Is this sir not a common sense approach?

The problem with Duda? A: Bad back, injury prone. Is one of many such situations literally crippling this present NY Mets team's chances again. 

Unfortunately, some might say that this has not been adequately addressed by this NY Mets management team. 

Let's do so now.

Other chronic injury patients on this team are in my own opinion:

1. Travis d'arnaud (28 years old this year and with how many at bats under his belt?) And yet, the NY Mets brass feels confident in having him be their number one catcher again in 2017.

2. Matt Harvey. How old is Matt this season? 27? Something like that, and how many losses to how many wins does he have on his career? May have another 2016 type of season, unsure.  Maybe another operation on this same arm situation. Then what?

3. Zachary Wheeler. How old? How many MLB starts? Is he going to be one of those unlucky hard throwing starters that never gets back 100%? Good question. We will see. I hope not.

4. Jacob deGrom. He lost his 2015 extra mph fastball and had arm achiness ending his 2016 season early. I believe he can get back whole, but it is not 100% guaranteed right now. 5. Neil Walker. I don't care what anyone says, some injuries are more serious than others going forward. Some change a player's ability to either stay healthy and on the field, or their success ratio while playing.

Then 2017 NY Mets starting field lineup is an older one now. The only homegrown NY Mets are Duda and Wright (if David can play at all.)  It is to me, a sort of NY Yankees team when George Steinbrenner was running it awhile back. It does not take into affect any minor league newer players really at all, unless there are injuries happening to the starting eight. There is no risk taking on the better AAA Mets from 2016, like Cecchini and Nimmo. To me, it is almost too set an older team. No one is even trying out for a position from AAA. Where is the motivation in that?

I believe that the reasoning is simple here with this, this is a "go for it all" season to this team's manager, general manager, and perhaps ownership. They want to win the World Series this year. I can understand that. However, the 2017 NY Mets starting pitchers are all basically young. There are no Chris Young's, or Joe Blanton's on this rotation. It is a relatively young NY Mets pitching staff. So then, why not have a couple of younger players in the field at least? Players that can be here more than one or two more seasons to compliment this team's younger pitching staff? That to me is precisely where other MLB franchises have a leg up on these NY Mets. And it is obvious to some of us.

Conclusion:

I'd probably investigate trading Duda and D'arnaud somewhat, still. Add in a younger catcher who can maybe be around healthy for a more considerable amount of time and possibly using these two players as attractive bait for that. The Kaplan article is point-on with Dominic Smith being the heir apparent at first base in 2018, Granderson walking and maybe retiring at this season's end. The NY Mets will get nothing for either player back., although salary will come off their salary budget or 2018. At first base 2017...I'd try Jay Bruce or Michael Conforto out there. Maybe even bring in Smith this spring for a get aclimated type thing. At catcher 2017, I'd look at someone like a Tom Murphy on Colorado, or an Alfaro from Cincy, the cannot miss young catcher. Why not really? You know that Duda's back has been an issue for sometime, and Travis (although a decent enough catcher) just cannot for the life of himself, stay healthy and on the field. Tomas Niddo is not ready yet, Plawecki has not been able to drive the ball. Why should we expect anything different here in 2017 from any of these players really?

By adding in a new catcher, finding a home for Bruce and either Comforto or Nimmo in the starting outfield, suddenly the 2017 NY Mets would be able to add-in the youth that they need to be adding in here the players that compliment a young 2017 NY Mets rotation.

Mack – Interview – CL David Roseboom

Good morning.

We’re talking this morning with who could possibly be the next Mets closer in Queens someday.

Tom Brennan described Roseboom’s 2016 season with Binghamton better than anything I can say –

The 6'2" 225 pound lefty (drafted in the 17th round in 2014) had a phenomenal AA season in 2016.  I don't know what else you'd call 52 games, a 1.87 ERA, a K per inning, a tiny 0.90 WHIP and an almost perfect 14 of 15 saves.  I call it phenomenal.

(Mack) – Thanks Dave for joining us here at Mack’s Mets. First question is easy… HOW DO YOU LIKE MY CLEMSON TIGERS (Dave went to college at the University of South Caroline-Upstate)?

(Dave) - Thank you for having me!! As far as Clemson goes, I could say I'm indifferent. Playing at Upstate I never really developed a desire to pull for them or USC. But still, it was awesome for the team and the school to bring home a national championship.

(Mack) – How did a farm boy from the Mohawk River area of New York State wind up in the Up-country of South Carolina?

(Dave) - Well, it all started when i was playing travel ball and we were playing in a tournament in Toms River NJ. The recruiting coordinator of Upstate at the time, Russell Triplet,  played at Clemson. So he knew that Clemson did a lot of recruiting in the North East. And he stumbled upon me at this tournament and a few months later I committed to play at USC Upstate.

(Mack) – Damn… we almost had you…  Josh Thole told me one day when he was sent up from Savannah to St. Lucie… “remember when we used to say each team in the Sally League had two or three quality players? Well, they all are quality players up here.” You experienced a little of that when you went to St. Lucie after being lights out in Savannah. What adjustments did you make?

(Dave) - Well for me it was more mental than physical. When I got called up to St. Lucie, in my debut, I hung a slider to a lefty and roped right of my forehead. Then a week later, I took another laser off my collar bone. And after that I started pitch too fine and nibble. Well, when I reached Binghamton this last season, I changed my mentality and started attack very aggressively down in the strike zone. And had a lot of success doing so.

Reese Kaplan asks - There have been a number of soft tossing lefties who have flourished in the majors, including Mark Buehrle, Ted Lilly, Jamie Moyer and others.  Who have been some of your role models as you progressed through organized baseball?

(Dave) - Watching those guys have shown you don't have to have that power four-seam to be "great" or a " big league" pitcher. Those guys have taught me that if you get people out that’s all that matters. It’s in the job description to get people out and do your job.

Richard Herr has two questions – 1. Who in the Mets organization has helped you the most? What did that person do?

(Dave) - Couple names come to mind but the person who had the most influence on my career. Hands down was Glenn Abbott. (AA pitching coach). He had one saying that he would always say the next after an outing. And it went "he swung at that pitch that said he wanted another". I took that at as if the batter is struggling to hit that pitch in a certain zone, why am I going to try and help him and throw something else? Using that it made the game really slow down for me and keep things simple.

(Richard) - 2. What pitch are you working on right now? What are you doing to improve that pitch?

(Dave) - Getting comfort in using my change-up against lefties and using my slider against righties. Those two things I feel will really help me. Right now to get better at that I'm throwing them more in bullpens simulating those situations.

David Rubin has three questions – 1. What was the biggest adjustment you had to make in becoming a reliever after so many years being a starter?

(Dave) - Realizing that it is a sprint not a marathon, so leave nothing in the tank and don't keep pitches in your back pocket. And that you will throw multiple times in a week, so adjust your throwing program to allow you to be fresh night in and night out.

(David) – 2. Do you still get the itch to take the ball every fifth day or have you become fully acclimated to pitching out of the bullpen?

(Dave) - Yes and no. Yes, because you get a chance to fix thing with bullpens and flat ground work. In the bullpen you gotta make adjustments on the fly. No, because if you have a terrible start you gotta sit on it until your next start. And when you’re in the bullpen you’re going to get called back out there the next day or the day after that so you can quickly turn it around.

(David) -3.  Do you think the fact that you have a multi pitch arsenal will help you get to the Bigs faster, where most closers rely on one or two pitches at the most, or have you been advised already to utilize your two best out pitchers more often?

(Dave) - Yes I do. Having a multi-pitch aresnal as a reliver doesn't limit you to one job or one situation. Any good hitter late in ball game is already trying to turn the pitcher into a "one pitch" pitcher while he is in the on-deck circle. If the hitter can do that than his job just became a lot easier. So having that third pitch in high leverage spots is a great weapon to have.

And we’ll end this with three questions from out ‘minor league weanie’ expert, Tom Brennan –

(Tom) - The Mets have had some great lefty relievers, such as Tug McGraw, Jesse Orosco, Billy Wagner, and John Franco.  Who in the Major leagues, past or present, do you believe your pitching repertoire most closely resembles, Dave?

(Dave) – To be honest I haven’t really thought about. That’s a tough question.

(Tom) - How do you feel as you are being brought in to close a game?

(Dave) – I love it. Theres no other feeling like getting the last out and closing the game down.

(Tom) - Las Vegas is most likely your team to start 2017, as you've more than succeeded at AA.  Vegas is noted for its difficulty for pitchers in minimizing runs.  How are you preparing for that challenge?   

(Dave) - Focusing more on attacking down in the zone and changing speeds and being aggressive and dictating the feel of the at bat. If I get hit, it will be because I’m up and falling behind guys.

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 17 DAVID THOMPSON

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 17 DAVID THOMPSON

Every time I hear the name David Thompson, I think back to the former NBA star and Jumping Jack of the game with the 50" vertical leap, who once got up so high, he caught his feet on a guy's shoulder and fell and hit his head, leading to a nasty concussion.  I always wondered why Thompson played without a parachute - he needed one.

His failed orbital launch is on You Tube - check it out here http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=david+thompson+head+injury+you+tube&view=detail&mid=48778EF3751F592781EB48778EF3751F592781EB&FORM=VIRE.

OK, enough NBA rambling, now let's get back to our David, the earth-bound RBI Machine.

David Thompson, like Peter Alonso, is rated a lumbering base runner.  Lots of power guys have had the same drawback and excelled. 

Thompson had to deal with a few injuries in 2015 and 2016, but the 2015 4th round third baseman has thankfully still gotten 175 games in so far over that period. 

He compiled an amazing 95 RBI's in 116 games in 2016, showing a real nose for driving in base runners, the kind of hitter folks like, especially those who saw the Mets bat under .200 with runners in scoring position for a major chunk of 2016. 

David's hot hitting in Columbia led to him being promoted mid year in 2016 to St Lucie and, once there, he did OK, hitting .265 in 55 games in the Florida heat.  

An RBI bat is a mighty intriguing and rare commodity, and David must be considered, as of now, as a possible replacement for David Wright by mid-2018, if the latter David can make it that far. 

I expect Thompson to move up less-thermal Binghamton for 2017, where we can hope he stays healthy, plays lots of games and drives in 100+.  'Cause if anyone can drive in 100 RBIs in the Mets' minors, it's Thompson.

Tomorrow, # 16 in the Top 25. 

Mack Ade - Jeurys Famila

Boy, is this a hard guy to write about.

On paper, Jeurys Familia is one of the top five closers in the business. He’s now pitched in 247 Mets games over his 5-year career, finished 155 of them, ‘closed’ 100, and produced  a stat line of 2.46, 1.18, 9.18-K/9. All this before his 27^th birthday. 2017 will be his ARB-2 year and could be a candidate to negotiate a long term contract because he is eligible for free agency in 2019.

Sounds perfect, right?

And then came October 31, 2016 when police arrested Familia and charged him with simple assault against his wife at his Ft. Lee, New Jersey apartment. The charges were dropped six weeks later when his wife said she never felt that her life was in danger.

A decision on whether or not Familia will be suspended hasn’t been made yet, so where do we go?

One of our returning Mack’s Mets writers, David Rubin, says –

One pitch- one pitch does NOT a career make. And yet, many Mets fans were ready to throw Jeurys Familia onto the scrap-heap due to one errant pitch and one costly loss. Familia has long had intriguing stuff; setting up for Jennry Mejia was a waste of his talent, but the way he was thrown into closing isn't the way anyone wants such things to happen. If Mejia was never suspended for PEDs, though, it's always possible that Familia would've still been an eight inning specialist, certainly not the spot anyone anticipated for him when he began his Mets' tenure as a future cog in the rotation.

As Mack said, his stats over the past 5 years have been exceptional; he's handled great pressure in the toughest market in the world, and ANY reliever can be taken deep at any time, including the legendary Mariano Rivera!!! Familia's talent is exceptional, and up until his shocking arrest on Halloween, he'd have been the LAST player on the team, short of David Wright, whom you'd think would be in trouble for putting his hands on his wife! After all, he did PSA's against Domestic Violence!!!!

Familia's natural talent and drive towards both a future, long-term contract as well as putting this situation behind him will certainly see a return to form for him; WHEN that's going to happen is to be determined, as Commissioner Manfred is pissed at both Familia and his wife for their lack of cooperation with MLB's investigation. As much as I want Familia back from a selfish, baseball-related standpoint, he MUST be suspended, lose both service time and more importantly money as a (small) punishment for a very serious incident. Make no mistake, folks- Domestic Violence is a VERY serious issue and there can be no making light of this situation. Whatever the Commissioner deems is the appropriate punishment, we'll have to grin and bear it because the issue is FAR more important and serious then the composition of our bullpen.

When Familia returns, I expect a return to form, stats-wise; how he'll handle the booing is another story. I hope this doesn't become an instance of a player needing a change of scenery to put this horrible incident behind him...

Christopher Soto, also of Mack's Mets, adds this - 

Say what you want about Familia's character issues that came to light this off-season.....but when you discuss Jeurys Familia, THE PLAYER, you have yourself an uber-talented young power arm who's averaged 47 saves and 85 K's per season since he became the Mets full time closer. Familia was so good in 2016 that he actually picked up more NL MVP voting points than Noah Syndergaard.

Statistically speaking, Familia is one of the Top 5 closers in baseball right now and that has significant value when you're discussing playoff caliber teams. His sinker...as long as he has command of it...is one of the best pitches in baseball coming in a ridiculous 97mph with almost 6 inches of drop. That command though is the key thing. In 2016, Familia had stretches where he lost that command causing his BB/9 to increase from his career best 2.2 per 9 IP in 2015 to 3.6 per 9. If he can learn to keep his composure and harness that sinker....no one will touch him in 2017.

Once he returns sometime in May, it will push Reed back into the 8th inning role and lengthen the bullpen back into the mold that produced the 6th best results in the MLB last year.

Mark Edelman of Forbes Magazine   said regarding  a possible suspension –

“pursuant to the Major League Baseball domestic violence policy, Rob Manfred may still choose to discipline Jeurys Familia if the league independently finds "just cause" for doing so. Although past commissioner suspensions do not serve as binding precedent for future commissioner suspensions, past punishments indeed serve as reasonable guideposts under the "just cause" standard.”

Opinion: Familia made a mistake, but not on the mound. He’s a great relief pitcher that only has to get past playoff games out of his head. 

Richard Herr - So Whaddya Think? - 17

Playing Experience

“So whaddya think?”

“Whaddya mean? What do I think?”

“Whaddya think about the way they’re playing the game nowadays?”

“Well, when I played baseball--“

“--Wait a minute. What? You played baseball?”

“Well, not professionally, but in a small amateur league. Enough to prove that I know what it feels like to play the game. Enough to know which hand to put the glove on.”

“What did you play?”

“I played some outfield. I also pitched.”

“You pitched?”

“That’s right.”

“How good were you?”

“So-so.”

“Whaddya mean, so-so? Did you ever have a radar gun track how fast you threw?”

“Well, I did, but I didn’t get any solid results out of it.”

“Solid results? Whaddya mean.”

“The battery kept running out on the thing.”

Whenever Richard Herr isn’t solving all the Mets’ problems, he spends his time writing humorous science fiction novels.

You can see his books at https://www.amazon.com/Richard-Herr/e/B00J5XBKX4.

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 18 PAUL SEWALD

Paul Sewald - alas, Paul is not a fireballer, but what Paul is, is "darned effective."

The 6'3" righty reliever was outstanding in his career all the way through AA in 2015, with a career ERA below 2.00, more than a K per inning, and almost no blown saved.  If there was an Effectiveness Rating, through 2015, Paul would have rated A+.

Then came Vegas in 2016.  Even in Vegas though, he pitched really well, having a 3.29 ERA on a team which had a far, far higher team ERA.

My guess is if he had pitched in the pitching-friendly AAA International League instead, his ERA would have been under 2.00 yet again.  Over the past several years, no Mets minors reliever has done as well as Paul, to my recollection.  Akeel Morris had his stretches, as did Dario Alvarez, before both were traded, but Paul's stretch of reliever excellence lasted longer than either of those two.

Sewald was not put on the 40 man roster, and then wasn't taken in the Rule 5 draft, so there have to be some reservations as to his future success at the major league level, but he is a non-roster invitee to the Mets' major league camp this spring.

Turning 27 this spring, the former 10th round selection obviously needs to make a great impression against big league hitters.  He always has excelled, why can't he do well this spring?

I'd personally very much like to see Paul latch on at the big league level and have a successful career.  Maybe this year, Mr. Sewald, maybe this year.

Reese Kaplan -- The 2018 Roster Vacancies

With the settlement of the arbitration hearing for Wilmer Flores and the recent returns of both Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas, it appears that the NY Mets opening day payroll will slightly eclipse the $150 million mark making it the highest ever in the history of their ballclub.  For people criticizing them for spending like a small market team, that $150 million payroll is actually  12^th in the league, well behind the $223 million of the Dodgers, but triple the $50 million of the Brewers.

What probably allows the Wilpons to sleep at night is the knowledge that this relatively lofty payroll position is most definitely a temporary phenomenon.  When the 2017 season ends, an awful lot of payroll comes off the books should the Mets choose not to renegotiate with several players. Consider these dollars (in millions):

17.2        Walker -- can't see that they would keep him

15           Granderson -- in the words of J. Peterman to Elaine Benes, thank you for a job...done

13           Bruce -- a poor year and he's gone.  A monster year and he's off to land a big contract

7.75        Reed -- the one worth pursuing

7.25        Duda -- A lot depends on what Dom Smith does in the minors this year and his own health

There’s over $55 million departing right there.  In addition, you have Jose Reyes and Fernando Salas playing on one year deals, though their cost is rather insignificant.  There’s an $8.5 million option on Asdrubal Cabrera for 2018 and at less than half the cost of Neil Walker it seems pretty obvious they would retain him. 

The only other player who would seem to be at risk of leaving for financial reasons is Juan Lagares.  He’s set to earn $6.5 million in 2018 and then jumps to $9 million in 2019 with a $9.5 million option for 2020 ($500K buyout).  For someone who has devolved from Gold Glove starting center fielder to role player, that may be deemed too rich for their blood and he could wind up playing elsewhere. 

The starting rotation is not yet eligible for free agency, so it’s possible that all will return at whatever rate an arbiter thinks is equitable.  I’m sure Wilmer Flores’ small victory will be inspiring some of the players to go that route, particularly when they’re not going to hit free agency for some time yet such as Jacob de Grom who is not a free agent until 2021. 

Jeurys Familia is once again under team control and the Mets do have an option on Jerry Blevins for 2018.  The tricky one is going to be Addison Reed who will likely be called upon to play closer in the early part of the year which will help his cause when he goes looking on the open market for work come 2018. 

The pickings are somewhat slim for bolstering the offense.  Jonathan Lucroy would seem to be the first target for the Mets to consider if Travis d’Arnaud has another disappointing year.  J.D. Martinez is an interesting option as well, though he’s not a centerfielder. If Wright is forced to retire then Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas become options as well.

Tony Watson and Jake McGee are a couple of quality lefty relievers.  After Reed you have Wade Davis, Greg Holland, Tyler Clippard, Luke Gregerson and Steve Cishek from the right side that look promising, too. 

It may be that a strong year from Robert Gsellman and health from Zach Wheeler could put Matt Harvey into play as part of a deal to bring back either young talent or an established star in a position of need.  

Play GM.  If you have $55 million leaving, what would you do?  How would your answer change if the elephant in the room chooses retirement after another year struggling with his health?