Tom Brennan: TJS Explodes in 21st Century; Minors Seasons Explode, Too; Keith; A Money Question

   

The Dark Knight, Matt Harvey, had TJS as a Met.

So did Wheeler, Matz, DeGrom, and Syndergaard.

Even infielder TJ Rivera needed the hated procedure. 

It derailed him. Matt Allan, too.

 FIRST…NO APRIL FOOLS JOKE. METS WERE SHUT OUT ON MARCH 31.

3-0 loss to the St Louis Cardinals. Just 3 hits, two by Juan Soto.

Ray Savage vividly recalls that the 1908 St Louis Cardinals were shut out 33 times.

Senga pitched well, but you can’t win when the other guys shut you out.

In fact, the only Mets run last night was a Syracuse solo HR by Ronny Mauricio. 

But spring training now officially ends as APRIL BASEBALL begins today.

Only FOOLS play baseball before APRIL.

Mets? 3-2, with a 2.87 ERA. Yankees? 4-1, a sub-microscopic 0.61 ERA. 

And ex-Met Jake deGrom has a 5.79 ERA. Go figure. That’s March for ya.

And AAA Ryan Clifford stole a base! And fanned 10 times in 4 games. Huh!

BACK TO MY ORIGINAL ARTICLE…

The Mets used 46 pitchers (including a few position guys) last year. 

That will drop by 10 pitchers in 2026, I’d think, if Mets starters don’t again implode with injuries. If not, the pitcher revolving door will be in high gear again. 

In 1969 and 1986, only 15 Mets pitchers were used each season. If you transported those entire staffs in a Time Machine to 2025 to face more power-laden hitters, that number of pitchers used by those two teams likely jumps by at least 10-15 pitchers, to 25-30.

The difference?

It is the “velocity atrocity”. If everyone drives on the LIE at 100 MPH, many more accidents will occur. 

In baseball, the quest for velocity is dangerous:

Simply…Lats get torn, elbows explode, shoulders disintegrate.

Pitchers routinely miss many months, and even years, recovering from such injuries. Some never make it back.

Speaking of TJS, i.e., Tommy John surgeries, many Mets pitchers in recent years have needed the procedure to be done on their elbows. 

So have the pitchers of every other team.

How about THESE numbers?

Jon Roegele

@MLBPlayerAnalys

·

Jan 3

Percentage of MLB pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery: 2016: 27.4% 2017: 25.9% 2018: 28.5% 2019: 30.8% 2020: 32.0% 2021: 32.0% 2022: 34.4% 2023: 35.7% 2024: 38.9% 2025: 39.1%

39%? Wow. And what an upwards trajectory that is.

Oddly, according to Roegele, the two teams with the highest number of pitchers who had Tommy John surgery had 21 such carved up pitchers over the last 10 years. 

The Mets, naturally, were third worst with 19, but the Cardinals somehow only had just four. That disparity sure is curious. If the team data is accurate from this Roegele gentleman, then David Stearns ought to look into the disparity. 

You know, to see if the Cardinals are doing something right that the Mets are doing wrong.

Reader Thoughts? Give me some surgically precise feedback here, please.

Of course, this is a factor:

Mets pitchers were 7th highest in walks allowed in 2025. And 3rd highest in pitches thrown, an average of just under 150 pitches per game. Cubs were the most efficient, at “just” 139 per game. 1600 more pitches over the course of the season by the Mets, as compared to the Cubbyholes. 

Advice to Mets: Get closer to 139 pitches per game, and save arms.

MINORS SEASONS EXPLODING THIS WEEK

While Syracuse started their season late last week, we get what else?

THREE MORE TEAMS DOING THEIR THING starting this week:

Thursday, April 2:

St Lucie opener

Friday, April 3:

Binghamton and Brooklyn openers.

Me? I love the prospects finally getting their seasons going:

SHOW US WHAT YOU’VE GOT!

And I also love the game data. I love tracking just how Mets and prospect players are doing, the players on the Mets AND on other four Mets teams. 

Almost a day cannot go by, when you have five teams playing, that somebody isn’t doing something great. So if the Mets struggle, on a given day, you have four of the teams that could give you joy.

I hope that, like last year, the four teams combined end up dozens and dozens of games above .500.

Some just focus on the team in Queens. I focus on all five teams - quintuple the pleasure. Quintuple the fun!

PLAY BALL!

NEXT…KEITH - THREE NEW THINGS I LEARNED

Hall of Famer Keith Hernandez (OK, he’s not in the Hall of Fame, but it’s not his fault. The idiots foolishly didn’t vote him in are at fault).

Keith was being interviewed by our Gary on SNY before the game last night.

I learned three new things about Keith (who is 15 days older than moi-meme):

1) He was drafted at age 17, all the way down in the 42nd round. 

    - So, the Mets passed on him for at least 41 rounds. Duh!

2) He nonetheless debuted in the major two months short of turning 21.

3) He struggled a bit to adjust early on, as he replaced an injured Joe Torre. He said the Cardinals fans were very supportive, and that in New York, it would’ve been entirely different.  BOOS!

I THINK SO MANY IDIOT FANS OF THIS TEAM ARE GENETICALLY PREDISPOSED TO BOOING THEIR TEAM’S PLAYERS AND PUTTING NEEDLESS PRESSURE ON THEM. 

WHAT STUPID FANS THIS TEAM HAS.

I remember watching the Knicks during the Patrick Ewing era. They were almost unbeatable in Madison Square Garden. The fans generated a sonic wall of Support, simply incredible, and were deemed the team’s  sixth man. The Mets would probably win a half dozen more games if their fans would layoff the booing, and cheer/roar them on. 

To boo Bo Bichette as early as in game 3 with his new Mets team is…

Categorically insane.

A MONEY QUESTION

If the Mets owed Sean Manaea just $1 million, and not $50 million, would they simply release him or attempt to send him down to AAA? 

Your brief thoughts are required.

Reese Kaplan --- Observations From the Early Mets Game Play

After the anemic offense in the third game against the Pirates it was somewhat refreshing and energizing to see the bats awaken when necessary against the Cardinals kicking off the Mets road trip after opening with a series win at Citifield.  Everyone was certainly happy to see an odd and ugly base hit by thus far struggling Bo Bichette to help bring in some runs when needed most.

Clay Holmes had a decent start, just giving up two runs but not looking totally dominant in the first few innings. That late home run did him in for the day and he settled for a 5.1 IP performance which turned out to be enough for the win after relievers Tobias Myers, Brooks Raley and Devin Williams all held St. Louis scoreless for the remainder of the Mets victory.  Of them all, the Devin Williams three up and three down performance was especially gratifying to the fans and media who still are not over the departure of Edwin Diaz.

In that game came the further revelation of the Achilles heel strain suffered by Jorge Polanco who has been shifted to DH duties until his foot is deemed sufficiently recovered and able to resume on-the-field duties.

What was very interesting was the lineup chosen for this game with Polanco off first base opening up a need there, Luis Robert, Jr. given a day off creating a need in center field and shifting outfielders around with Carson Benge moving to cover for Robert opened up right field for now apparently super utility player Brett Baty to get the start in place of Benge on that side of the outfield. 

Carlos Mendoza’s lineup included a somewhat surprising selection of Jared Young at first base rather than Mark Vientos.  Another approach could have been Baty at 1B with Tyrone Taylor taking over the vacant outfield position.  Part of the decision making may have been the belief that Young’s greater defensive experience there than either Baty or Vientos.  Another part may be the need to evaluate who might stay and who might go when roster adjustments are made.  You can’t tell how good Young would be unless he plays.  (For the record, on Monday night he went 1-4 with an RBI, so it was a good day for the now 30 year old fringe player with a career .200 average). 

To hear many folks grouse about it, Mark Vientos needs to be banished from the team as his 2025 season was a pale comparison to what he’d done in 2024.  In fact, some are quick to point out he has become the new J.D. Davis who had power but little else to offer.  As bad as he was, bear in mind his trade brought back to the Mets none other than the AAAA mediocrity known as Darin Ruf.  Is that the kind of return folks hope to get for a guy who had 27 HRs as a mostly full time player just 2 years ago?  Or would it make more sense to identify another player who has never shown the ability to be a strong offensive player?

It’s great seeing the Mets win 3 of their first 4 but at the same time questions continue to arise.