1/25/17

Reese Kaplan -- An Appreciation for What's Good

For someone who spends a lot of time evaluating the team through a hypercritical lens, I thought I would instead talk about some of the positives that Mets fans should appreciate (perhaps more). after all, we're looking at pitchers and catchers reporting in less than three weeks.  

First of all, thank you for the turnaround.  When the current regime took over the club was a laughingstock and although the impatience of the fans is omnipresent, the fact is that the five year plan was a success as it resulted in a World Series appearance and then a subsequent playoff berth the following year.  They went from cellar dwellers to contenders while mostly moving past the Madoff-era austerity. 

Next, let’s tip our caps to the pitching staff.  When healthy they have one of the finest sets of arms anywhere in the majors.  The arms are what got them to climb out of the cellar.  Sandy Alderson gets credit for much of it, though the much maligned Omar Minaya actually found Matt Harvey, Jacob de Grom, Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia and others.  Alderson gets credit for the trades that brought in Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and drafting Michael Fulmer (who resulted in the Yoenis Cespedes trade).  Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo are his, too, though the jury is still out on them until we see a bigger sample.

Power is something that some people never expected to see across the board with the Mets.  Last year they shattered the club record and clubbed 218 HRs.  Their best total prior to that was a mere 200 a full decade ago during a 2006 first place finish in the division on the bats of Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and a fresh-faced healthy David Wright.  What’s even more impressive is that the Mets were without both David Wright and Lucas Duda for most of the year, as well as missing chunks of time from other power hitters like Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. 

Versatility has become very much in vogue in baseball.  Witness the $56 million contract signed by Ben Zobrist not to play a single position but to play all over the field.  This past season the Mets were in a unique position to snatch up Jose Reyes for minimum wage after being cut loose by the Colorado Rockies.  Given the high regard with which the fans held Reyes the first time around the Mets were better able to withstand the potential PR nightmare of rewarding one of the first players suspended under the league’s new domestic violence policy.  When the manager deigned to do so, they got excellent production out of other subs like Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera.  They even got a handful of productive ABs out of Brandon Nimmo.  Of course, being who he is, way too many ABs were squandered on the likes of James Loney, Alejandro De Aza, Matt Reynolds, Ty Kelly and Eric Campbell.  It says a lot about the quality of the backup players that Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and T.J. Rivera all need to have monster springs to ensure they come north. 

Finally, there’s credibility.  In 1950 the UCLA Bruins head coach Red Saunders told people, “Winning isn’t everything.  Men, it’s the only thing.”  It does cure what ails you.  Gone are the days when the Mets were the punchline of the late night talk shows.  In 2015 the Yankees lost the wildcard and the Mets made it to the World Series.  They outdrew the Mets by 600,000.  Last year the Yankees didn’t make the post season and the Mets were in the wildcard.  There was still a 300,000 deficit in attendance.  A World Series win could reverse that trend and give the city back to the Mets.  Right now it appears to be up for grabs. 

Can things be improved?  Sure.  A few issues immediately spring to mind: 

  • Get on base.  In Little League they used to tell you a walk is as good as a hit.  There’s some truth in that. 
  • Play defense.
  • Steal bases.
  • Hit and run.
  • Hit behind the runners.
  • Bunt.
  • Stop riding the cold hand for weeks at a time just because he was good several years ago.
  • Conversely, don't bench the hot hand.
  • Remember it’s a marathon and not a sprint.  Manage the bullpen accordingly.
  • Not everyone who goes 0-4 in a single game must be relegated to platoon status (or benched).
  • Remember, the market doesn’t always come to you.  Sometimes you need to make an effort.

1/24/17

BREAKING NEWS - OF - Jay Bruce


The have informed Jay Bruce that they intend to start the season with him as their rightfielder.

BREAKING NEWS - Tradition Field


Another spring-training complex will receive a facelift, as the New York Mets and St. Lucie County agreed to a new 25-year lease that will end up in upgrades over the next two years to the team’s longtime Grapefruit League home, Tradition Field.
The deal had been in the works for over a year, as the county and the team worked out a financial plan that worked for both sides, with the inclusion of possible state funding via a spring-training retention fund as well. The Mets would pay down the existing Tradition Field debt of $5.4 million, while the county would then issue $55 million in new bonds for the facility upgrades backed by the bed tax, with the contingency that state funding much come through before the upgrades begin. The Mets would then see a rental bump up to $2 million a year for 25 years, as well as commit $400,000 to county tourism promotion.
The upgrade plan would see the ballpark upgraded with a 360-degree concourse, three new Little League baseball/softball fields for county use, a new player dorm/academy, new clubhouses and team offices, an additional practice field, and new fan seating.
http://www.springtrainingonline.com/mets-st-lucie-county-agree-to-tradition-field-upgrades/ 

Tom Brennan - NIMMO THE NEXT LEE MAZZILLI?

 
Tom Brennan - NIMMO THE NEXT LEE MAZZILLI?

Lee Mazzilli was a fine  local player for mostly the Mets, starting back about 40 years ago.   Nearly 5,000 major league plate appearances, .259/.359/.385. Solid, and fine at getting on base, even if not a spectacular career.


In the minors, Lee was a fine .281/.408/.425 in 1,361 at bats (plus a lot of walks).

Brandon Nimmo in his minor league career has put up similar .285/.389/.421 stats, over 1934 at bats, including his great 2016 season.   Lee hit somewhat more homers, but less triples and doubles, per at bat than Nimmo.   In the majors, Lee never hit more than 16 homers in a season, so that seems like a bar Nimmo could reach.

Mr. Lee struck out less, and had better speed, reflected in Lee's far superior stolen base results (Nimmo has stolen only 37 of 67 in the minors, while Lee stole 41 once in a year in the majors AND 123 in his 3 early years in the minors over just a 388 game span).

Question is:
Aside from stolen bases, is Nimmo the next Lee Mazzilli?  You decide.  


My guess? Nimmo will be more like Joel Youngblood, who was even closer to Nimmo in terms of his minor league stats than Mazzilli.  Joel ended up putting up .265/.329/.392 #'s over 4,078 major league plate appearances, with just a Nimmo-like 60 steals in 115 attempts.  I'd think Nimmo would be reasonably satisfied with a career like that.

HAPPY TUESDAY, PEOPLE.

1/23/17

Richard Herr - So Whaddya Think? - 12


You Gotta Accentuate the Positive
“So whaddya think?”
“Whaddya mean? What do I think?”
“Whaddya think about the press?”
“No.”
“Huh?”
“No.”
“That’s not an answer to my question.”
“Yes, it is.”
“How can you say that?”
“It’s what the press always says.”
“No?”
“You bet. They’re always saying no to everything.”
“Gimme a for instance.”
“Whaddya think of Lucas Duda?”
“He’s pretty good.”
“I’ll continue for you. He hits 30 homeruns a year. He fields his position pretty good, handles most all throws, gets most ground balls. He’s pretty good.”
“That’s what I said.”
“And they were such great words, I repeated them.”
“Thank you.”
“You’re welcome.”
“So could you relate this to the press?”
“What does the press say about Lucas Duda? They’ll tell you he’s streaky. They’ll tell you he’s not that good a fielder.”
“Well, in the World Series he…”
“Yes, I know. He’s like that punchline to a joke. ‘But suck one’—and there’s a last word there. I think you know the joke. But you can see what I’m getting at with the press. They accentuate the negative. They keep saying ‘no’ about everything. When else can you remember Lucas Duda making a bad throw?”
“Now that you mention it….”
“Exactly. And when the press says he’s streaky, what they’re really talking about are the times he doesn’t hit home runs. They don’t talk very much about how he carries the team when he’s hot. No, they always say he’s streaky.”
“So they don’t give Duda the benefit of the doubt.”
“He’s not the only one they badmouth.”
“Who else?”
“Not too long ago there was a guy they couldn’t wait to see leave this town. They kept complaining about him. They said he was a bum because he couldn’t properly field his position, which was not the one he played in the minors. They said he was a liability with his base running gaffs.”
“I think I recognize this one. Murph, right?”
“On the schnozz, my friend. They couldn’t wait to get him out of town. He had nothing but faults. Oh, wait a minute! There’s one thing he also had. A major league record for home runs in playoffs. He may have been the sole reason why the Mets made the World Series in ’15. But the press could only talk about his faults.”
“You got anybody else?”
“Yeah. The way they’ve handled Jay Bruce. The minute the Mets signed Cespedes, anybody who could count knew they had too many left-hand hitting outfielders. So the press jumped up and started broadcasting to everyone, especially rival GMs, about how Sandy couldn’t do anything else to fix the team until he cleared Bruce’s salary off the books. And, they added, Bruce really didn’t hit so well here in New York. Again, stressing the negative.”
“Where does that put the Bruce thing?”
“The other GMs are going to stonewall, knowing Sandy’s behinds the 8-ball. So Bruce is gonna be there at spring training along with the rest of the Mets who will be shy a good arm or two in the bullpen, and Sandy’s running around like crazy trying to trade him for something worthwhile.”
“Whaddya think the press should do?”
“They should start being more positive. Not go around bad-mouthing everyone and ruining the trade market for them.”
“Whaddya mean more positive?”
“I’ll show you an example. Stand up tall where you are. Good. Now raise your arm up high. Good. Now repeat after me, ‘Percy, I’ve got the next round.’”
“Nice try.”

Whenever Richard Herr isn’t solving all the Mets’ problems, he spends his time writing humorous science fiction novels.


You can see his books at https://www.amazon.com/Richard-Herr/e/B00J5XBKX4.

MLB PRESS RELEASE - Cespedes and Syndergaard ranked on MLB Network's TOP 10



YOENIS CESPEDES AND NOAH SYNDERGAARD RANKED ON MLB NETWORK’S
TOP 10 RIGHT NOW!
Watch Video Recaps of Cespedes’ and Syndergaard’s Top-Ten Rankings Here and Here
  January 23, 2017 – New York Mets left fielder Yoenis Cespedes was ranked 2nd on MLB Network’s Top 10 Left Fielders Right Now! program yesterday, while Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard was ranked 9th on the Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now!. Cespedes finished one spot ahead of the Pirates’ Starling Marte and one spot behind the Brewers’ Ryan Braun. Syndergaard finished one spot ahead of the Diamondbacks’ Zack Greinke and one spot behind the Giants’ Johnny Cueto.
Taking into account player performance over several seasons with an emphasis on 2016, a number of offensive and defensive metrics both advanced and traditional, and projected performance for the upcoming season, MLB Network’s Top 10 Right Now! series ranks the top players at each position heading into the 2017 season.
The complete rankings for left fielders and starting pitchers are listed below, and embeddable video recaps on Cespedes and Syndergaard can be seen here and here:
Top 10 Left Fielders Right Now!
1.    Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
2.    Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets
3.    Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
4.    Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
5.    Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians
6.    Randal Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals
7.    Justin Upton, Detroit Tigers
8.    Carlos Beltran, Houston Astros
9.    Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
10.  Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds
Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now!
1.    Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
2.    Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
3.    Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
4.    Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
5.    Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
6.    Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
7.    Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
8.    Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
9.    Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
10.  Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
Now in its seventh season, MLB Network’s Top 10 Right Now! series is hosted by Brian Kenny with contributing analysis from MLB Network on-air personalities, Boston Red Sox senior advisor of baseball operations and renowned sabermetrician Bill James, President of SABR Vince Gennaro and MLB.com analyst Mike Petriello. The rankings will continue next Sunday, January 29 with MLB’s top ten shortstops unveiled at 8:00 p.m. ET, featuring analysis from MLB Network’s Bill Ripken, and the top ten first basemen at 9:00 p.m. ET, with analysis from MLB Network’s Sean Casey.
About MLB Network:
MLB Network is the ultimate television destination for baseball fans, featuring the multiple Emmy Award-winning MLB Tonight, live regular season and Postseason game telecasts, original programming, highlights, and insights and analysis. MLB Network debuted on January 1, 2009 in a record-setting 50 million homes, is currently distributed in approximately 68 million homes throughout the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico, and is available for live, authenticated streaming via MLB.com At Bat and MLBNetwork.com. For more information and to find MLB Network in your area, go to www.MLBNetwork.com.

Contact: Amanda Rodriguez (amanda.rodriguez@mlb.com)

Mack Ade - Matt Harvey


Good morning.

Writing an article on the future of Matt Harvey as a Met would be so different at different times in his short Mets career.

A 2010 article written after the Mets drafted him as the 10th player overall in the draft would be all hype and excitement. A 2011 one after a debut Mets season of 10-starts, 2.73, 1.15, and 70-Ks in 59.1 innings would just grow the excitement. Then, anything written in 2014 would be dominated with speculation after his TJS.

But a 2015 article (13-8, 2.71, 1.02, 189.1-IP, 188-K) would feature a headline that he was back and good times had returned.

And then came 2016. Just a crap season. 17-starts, an embarrassing 4.86-ERA, and only 76 strikeouts in 92.2 innings pitched, ending with another season ending injury and surgery.

Now, what once was speculated as the future top pitcher in baseball, was considered damaged goods as he goes into his second arbitration year. 

He’s scheduled to become a free agent in 2019 and, unless he returns to some kind of dominance in 2017, I just don’t see any trade value here.


Now, what once was speculated as the future top pitcher in baseball, was considered damaged goods as he goes into his second arbitration year. He’s scheduled to become a free agent in 2019 and, unless he returns to some kind of dominance in 2017, I just don’t see any trade value here.

Gone is Harvey Days. Gone is The Dark Knight. And gone is his anchor spot as the SP1 on the team. Now he’s fighting out for SP3 with Steven Matz and could even fall further if Zack Wheeler returned strong or Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo had a repeat of their surprising 2016 season.

My speculation on Harvey is simple. His lack of success in 2017 would jeopardize an arbitration offer by the Mets in the 2017-2018 off-season and could lead to him being DFA’s… while a successful year would only strengthen his chances to be traded off before he hits free agency. Either way, there’s not much chance here for a future as a New York Met.

Have we seen the best of Matt Harvey?


Tom Brennan of Macks Mets writes :

“While it is initially reassuring that Matt Harvey and his agent Scott Boras have recently and comfortingly commented positively about Harvey’s post-surgical recovery and current health, the success of a superior major league starter hinges largely on 3 things: command, velocity, and durability.  Harvey had those in abundance back in 2013 when he was electrifying the baseball world.”

“His command should be much improved over 2016, now that the surgery has restored full feeling in his pitching hand and shoulder, but if that great command is coupled with a drop in velocity due to the surgery, it would reduce Harvey’s effectiveness, perhaps significantly.  His velocity will become evident in the months to come.

“And even if Harvey has great command AND velocity early on in 2017, he faces the hurdle of also being full-season-durable.   Time will tell, and we can only hope the true Dark Knight returns, although considering the surgeries of Harvey, Wheeler, Matz and deGrom, and availability of Gsellman and Lugo, a 6 man rotation for the Mets may well be both wise and necessary for everyone’s durability, right into October baseball.  For now, until he pitches in anger, we’ll be in the Dark as to the Knight’s current ceiling.”


        Gary McDonald, of www.Metsmusings.com  fame added -

2017 will be a very important year for Matt Harvey. He is inching closer to free agancy and needs to come thru with a big year.

He needs to prove three things this year:

1) He can stay healthy - two major injuries in four years has really set him back.

2) Needs to return to the dominance he showed glimpses of in 2013 and 2015. Dominating batters with his fastball and curve.

3) See 1


Harvey will be looking for a big contract in another year or so, but frankly he doesn't have the numbers to warrant it. He needs to start compiling numbers fast to reinstate himself among the league’s elite pitchers. I expect the Mets to bring him along slowly in Spring Training . It will be interesting to see if Harvey's agent gets involved. The soap opera continues.

This game has changed so much over the years and you just don’t have that much time anymore to succeed with the team that drafted you into professional baseball. You draft them out of high school, they’re too risky. You draft them out of college, they’re already too old. You rush them through the pipeline, they break down or fall apart. You shelve them after a season ending injury and they lose precious ground. They make it to arbitration, they become too expensive to keep around. And when they hit free agency, they’re simply too expensive to re-sign.

I truly believe that there will be very little success left for this guy as a Met. He could fail and fade away, or success and be traded. Either way, I don't see a long term future for him in Mets blue.


1/22/17

BREAKING NEWS - P - Yordano Ventura



pitcher Dead at 25 after fatal car accident earlier today, confirmed by police force. Terrible news.

Mack Ade – “Stuff” – Las Vegas, Minors Ranking


Good morning.

Marc Edelman wrote a very good article on the Las Vegas 51s in Forbes Magazine earlier this month.

He pointed out the two reasons having this team as a AAA affiliate just doesn’t work. First, Las Vegas is 2,200 miles away from New York and a whole days is wasted getting someone up from Vegas to the parent team to fill in during an emergency situation. The other, as we all know is, the lack of the air that we breath, which can create a situation that hitters hit better than they really are and pitchers look like they pitch from hunger.

As Edelman points out - 

By having your pitchers throw regularly under conditions so different from both Major League ballparks, it is difficult for the team to assess their performance.  For example, two former Mets pitchers who absolutely dominated AA-ball and then were traded away after struggling in AAA are Collin McHugh and Matt Bowman.  Once leaving the Pacific Coast League, both pitchers reverted to their AA form in the Major Leagues.

McHugh went 9-starts, 2.87 for Las Vegas in 2013, followed by 9-starts, 4.69 for Colorado Springs in the same year. In 2014, for Oklahoma City, he went 5-games, 3.79.

Bowman pitched in seven games for Vegas in 2014 (3.47) and then started 26 of 28 games for the 51s the following year (2015: 5.53). Last year, he relieved in 59 games for the parent St. Louis Cardinals (3.46).

We’ve discussed many  times what Edelman touched on next -

If the Mets are serious about breaking their thirty-year World Series drought, moving their AAA affiliate back to a local city within the International League such as Norfolk or even Rochester would make a very reasonable step.
We know things aren’t this simple in the minor leagues world.


Keith Law recently ranked the Mets as the 7th top minor league systems in baseball. This was up from his 16th ranking a year ago. I assume this comes from a combination of recent signed talent, like Andres Gimenez and Justin Dunn, but also improved seasonal results from players like Amed Rosario and Tomas Nido.
I agree with Law that the Mets pipeline has improved in talent, but, in my opinion, seventh might be a little high. Hitting .350 in the DSL league isn’t the same as doing it in Flushing.

What both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo did last season proves to all us pundits that you just don’t know what’s going to happen until it happens. No one predicted the increase of velocity Gsellman showed and I’m sure there are teams… cough… Nats… throughout the league asking for someone to test this guy.

I like what I see in Gimenez, Nido, P.J. Conlon, David Thompson, Wuilmer Beccera, and Desmond Lindsay, but, as of right now, only Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith can be considered A- to A type prospects.

My prediction?

Over time, Rosario and Lindsay will become stars. 

Others might, but it simply is too early to predict. 

Gsellman and Lugo have already proved there’s a place for them on future Mets teams. 

I am sure Smith will hit .300+ in Vegas, but will his new 800-LB body produce more power without losing any defensive skills at first base.

I like Beccera, but he basically was a designated hitter last season. We need to see if he can play in the outfield at a major league level.

Thompson has the potential to lead the National League in runs batted in, but, right now, he’s a man without a position. I would bump him to Binghamton and play him every day at third to continue the process of growth there.

I also would promote Nido to AA and see how his bat holds up there.

I would continue the progress of Conlon and make him the SP1 in St. Lucie on opening day.

I’ll get heat here, but I would start both Dunn and Anthony Kay in the Columbia rotation. They are big boy college guys and they can handle it.

I would (sadly) make Thomas Szapucki the SP1 in Brooklyn due to the logjam of starters in Columbia.


And I would slow pace the Dominican shortstops (Gimenez and Gregory Guerrero).