8/7/10

STOCK: - Jeurys Familia, Robert Carson, and Colin McHugh

Jeurys Familia:

8-7-10: - stock up...



“Family” signed with the Mets during the October 2007 International signing period. 2008 was spent with with the GCL Mets, where he went 2-2, 2.79, 1.14 in 11 starts. He quickly became the dean of the staff.


In September, Toby Hyde wrote: RHP Jeurys Familia – 2-2, 2.79 ERA, 11 GS, 51.2 IP, 46 H, 20 R, 16 ER, 2 HR, 13 BB, 38 K - I’d been told to expect big things from Familia’s right arm, but he was just ok when I saw him. I think the 18 year old just had an off day for me in Vero Beach. He showed off a fastball that was 89-92, mostly around 90, to go with two pitches - a slider (77, 78 mph) and a change up (84) - that need about the amount of work you’d expect from an 18-year old his first professional season. However, sometimes the big fastball is there from his loose delivery. In his first start in the GCL in 2008 he was dialing it up 94-96 mph. A scout from an American League club confirmed that he saw Familia dealing similar gas in instructs in 2007. So go figure.


In 2009, Familia pitched for the Savannah Sand Gnats: 10-6, 2.69, 1.16, 109-K, 134.0-IP.


His two year professional stats are: 12-8, 2.72, 1.16.


9-15-09 from: - http://myworldofbaseball.com/wordpress/?cat=42  - Jeurys Familia RHP - I can’t help but going into a “we are familia” song when I see his name. He had 23 starts for Savannah with a 2.69 ERA. Opponents hit him at a .221 clip and his walk to K ratio was solid (46 to 109). He turns 20 in October and at 6′3″ he should add more juice to his low 90s fast ball.


1-1-10 Forecast: - Nothing but blue sky for the 19-year old, but his job is just beginning. We’ve seen many a pitcher do well in rookie and A ball, only to fade away by the time they compete AA. Familia definitely loos like the real deal, but it is too early to tell. He’ll rotate with his Sand Gnat buddies for a new coach in Flordia and we wish him well.


5-22-10: - SP Jeurys Familia: Famila started off the season with a horrendous outing in which he gave up 7-ER in 3.2-IP (17.18). Four outings later, he’s worked his ERA down to 7.06, but he definitely has settled down his last two outings, giving up only 3-ER in 9.0-IP. You won’t see him pitching for anyone other than St. Lucie this season. One good sign is his K/IP ratio has remained high (23-Ks in 21.2-IP). He’s only 20-years old so there’s plenty of time. (update… five more decent innings tonight, giving up only one run…)


6-16-10: - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/405671-mets-prospect-watch-five-young-future-metropolitans  - The Mets signed Familia in 2007 as an undrafted free agent aiming to raise him as a starting pitcher. After two successful seasons in the low minors as a starter, the 20 year old righty has hit somewhat of a roadblock with Class A Port St. Lucie. The difference maker is his control. It was spot-on in 2008 and 2009, but now it seems to have diminished. His WHIP is currently sitting up around 1.70. If he can’t regain the control he has showcased in the past, he might be destined for relief work. He’s got the velocity, as his fastball topped out at around 96 mph during the spring. He’s put up very impressive and consistent strike out numbers, which make it seem like he is destined for the Mets rotation. Expect to see him appear on the Mets pitching staff early on in 2013 as a reliever. If he plays his cards right, he may get some starts and wind up a fixture in the rotation


6-22-10: - Familia has had a tough time this season and some have speculated that he might be returning to Savannah to get his game together; however, he put together a good outing Monday night, with stats of: 6.2-IP, 1-ER, 7-K, 3-BB. His yearly ERA is now 6.16 and this was especially a heart breaker, since it was a 7-inng game. Jeurys was one out away from a complete game victory, but was relieved and the game was lost eventually to Bradenton. Bad game, but good outing.


6-28-10: - Giving up three earned runs in 6.1-IP may not be considered the best of outings, but it’s a good one for Familia, who’s been struggling all year long. He struck out five, but walked four. Regardless of the tough year, he still is considered a top pitching prospect


7-9 from: - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/25793  - Jeurys Familia
RHP
Age 20
New York Mets
High-A (FSL) - 26.3 K%
15.7 BB%
0.3 HR/9
1.59 GO/AO - What an inning will look like: If Familia pitches — and I’m guessing that’s no sure thing since he threw yesterday — we will see a lot of fastballs. The great U.S. offense is likely to draw a few walks off Familia, as he’s the most wild pitcher in this game. He’ll pitch into the mid-90s with a heavy fastball, but he doesn’t really know where it’s going. What he profiles as: A reliever, if a Major Leaguer at all. It’s hard to believe that some pitching instructor can’t help Familia harness his stuff, but it wouldn’t be the first time it didn’t work out.


7-14 from: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/7/14/1567569/mets-farm-system-mid-term-review  - Consider Familia another bitten by the Mets pitching prospect bug: As I recently noted in a farm report, Familia just surpassed his walk total from all of last season in less than half the innings. On the bright side, his fastball seems to have gained a couple ticks as he now regularly reaches the mid-90's and still shows the tremendous sinking movement that has garnered a 1.59 GB/FB rate and allowed just two homers thus far. So at least the stuff is still there and considering this is his first exposure to truly advanced hitting, it's not that surprising or alarming that a kid with good fb command up to this point is suddenly a bit more wary of the strike zone. Also, he has reportedly spent a lot of time working on his changeup and slider and if he brought that work into the games that would definitely explain increased walks. So his stock is down but not by as much as you might think upon seeing his line.


7-17 from: - http://baseballanalysts.com/  - Jeurys Familia dialed it up to 98. I'm very surprised to see that he's a starter in the minors, considering. At 20 years old, he can afford to throw one off-speed pitch out of a dozen offerings. Lots of time to work on that secondary stuff and that command. For now, that velo will do.


7-23 from: - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2010/2610396.html  - Jeurys Familia, rhp, Mets. Familia offers ample evidence of why some scouts deride "scouting by the radar gun." Familia can touch the upper 90s with his fastball, but his heater seems a few ticks slower than that because hitters get such a long look at the ball. With high Class A St. Lucie he's walked 17 batters in the last 12 1/3 innings, which explains why he's given up 14 runs over those three starts. Familia's 71 strikeouts are nice, but his 58 walks and nine hit-by-pitches keep him from success.


7-28-10 from: - we don’t have to talk about what a frustrating year it’s been for Familia, but he did manage to put together a decent outing last night against Brevard County. Familia went: 6.0-IP, 6-H, 2-ER, 7-K, 2-BB and lowered his season ERA to 6.13. Let’s remember he is only 20-years old and did come off two great years in 2009 (Savannah: 2.69) and 2008 (GCL: 2.79). We’ll give him a push this season and it sure looks like he will repeat Lucy in 2011.


8-5-10: - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/8/5/1606179/2010-top-20-new-york-mets  - Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-: 6.30 ERA for St. Lucie, 83/62 K/BB in 84 innings, 85 hits. Like Allen, he's gone backwards. Good strikeout rate, but getting killed by walks.





Robert Carson:

8-7: - stock up...


Carson had a disappointing senior season at Hattiesburg, finishing 3-5 with only 36 Ks. The bright spot was his 2.65 ERA. As a junior, he went 5-2 with 2 saves and a 2.15 ERA with 60 Ks.


The Mets drafted Carson in the 14th round of the 2007 draft. He signed and was placed on The GCL Mets roster, where he went 1-0, 5.00 in 4 games, 1 start.


Scouts say he has a “big time arm” and throws a “heavy” fastball. Carson features 4 pitches, a fastball, changeup, cutter and curveball. His fastball sits 90-92, and has topped out at 94. His changeup sits around 75-80, while his curveball is low to mid 70s.


In 2008, Carson started out with the GCL Mets and pitched impressively: 1-0, 1.57, 0.74. He was promoted to Kingsport, where he went 2-3, 1.76 in 6 starts.


In September 2008, Toby Hyde wrote: LHP Robert Carson – 1-0, 1.57 ERA, 5 GS, 23 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 6 BB, 25 K - A pair of dominant outing in July, 12 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 16 K, proved that big lefty was ready for challenges beyond the GCL and earned him a promotion to Kingsport. Carson missed much of 2007 after being struck on the head by a ball, but had a healthy and productive ’08. Carson is the only player in this GCL review who I didn’t see play live, since he threw the day before I arrived in Florida. His fastball sat was 90-93, and his secondary offerings were a slider and a changeup. He told me in July that he was very pleased with the development of the slider this year. As a lefty with good size and velocity, I really like Carson’s ceiling – which could be an MLB rotation sometime around 2012 or so. Projected 2009 Start: Savannah


9-9-9 From http://www.hardballtimes.com/ : - Speaking of that 2011 St. Lucie rotation, Carson is another young pitcher who impressed for Savannah this year. Jumping from Rookie ball in 2008 to A ball this year, the 20 year-old lefty features a low 90's fastball (tops out around 92 MPH) that helped him to a 3.21 ERA and 3.37 FIP. Carson has to work on getting more whiffs if he wants to compete at higher levels.


In 2009, Carson pitched a full season for Savannah and went: 8-10, 3.21, 1.40, but only 90-K in 131.2-IP. He also walked 45 batters.


Carson’s 3 year pro stats are: 12-13, 2.87, 1.34.


1-1-10 Forecast: - Carson would have been ranked higher if he finished the season strong, but he didn’t. The Mets should have bumped him to St. Lucie at least two months prior to the end of the season, but they didn’t, and that could have been hanging over Carson. There’s a hell of a lot of talent here along with his confidence and bravado. I look for a tremendous season at St. Lucie in 2010.


5-22-10: Carson has put together three decent starts coming into Friday night, after starting the season all over the place. He did give up 12 hits Friday night, but his overall stats were impressive: 7.1-IP, 2-ER, 3-K. His ERA is now down to 4.95 from a year high of 81.00 on April 15.


5-22-10: - SP Robert Carson: Carson also got off to a bad start, especially his second outing of the year (0.2-IP, 6-ER, 81.00). The good news is, in his last three outings, Carson has stats of: 16.1-IP, 5-ER, 12-Ks. His last outing on May 17 was especially hot, striking out nine in 5.0-IP. Carson is 21-years old and, like Familia, projects out as a possible 2013 starter for the Mets


6-17-10: - A+ SP Robert Carson had another great outing, throwing 6..0 scoreless innings, giving up only two hits and striking out seven. His ERA is now below five, and he's given up only 2-ER in his last three starts (19.0-IP). This is real good news folks and there actually is a chance you may see him move on to Binghamton at some point this season.


6-30-10: - Carson did everything he could to throw a shutout Monday night… his first seven innings were close to perfect, but he eventually tired in the 8th inning, giving up four runs (7.2-IP, 4-ER, 9-H, 4-K, 1-BB). He did get the victory (6-4), and his ERA ended up at 4.54. There’s been a bunch of negativity in the scouting world involving Carson… many question whether he has that “something special”needed to make it someday in the Bigs. No one has every questioned his confidence (his Facebook name is Robert “Imdestinedforgreatness” Carson.) Let’s hope this is another sign that his game is returning.


7-4-10: - Carson continued Sunday night putting his season back together... 7.0-IP, 2-ER, 7-K, 1-BB... ERA down to 4.37. That translates to a 3.41 ERA over the last 10 starts, which, if that was his seasonal stats, he would already be on is way to Binghamton.


7-14 from: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/7/14/1567569/mets-farm-system-mid-term-review  - No, on the surface those numbers are not very impressive. However, following a 7.07 April ERA, Carson has been very solid in each of the following months, including a 2.08 ERA in July. And really it isn't just the numbers that give me confidence with Carson, it's the reports on his increased stamina, mound presence and fastball command. After a 2009 where he regularly tired by the 6th, the big-bodied Carson is now holding his low to mid 90's velocity deep into games and is consistently commanding the fastball to both sides of the plate. He has also learned to work extremely quickly, improving his game pace and rhythm. While it may take a while, Carson is doing exactly what it takes for him to round into that back of the rotation innings-eater I'm hoping for instead of just a LOOGY.



Colin McHugh:


8-6-10: - Stock Up: - McHugh is one of the many talented players to come out of Savannah this year, but, as we have learned so mnay times over the years, pitching well in A ball to youngsters is a long way from the majors. Needless to say, McHugh hasimpressed us this year, especially Wednesday night when he went: 6.0-IP, 0-ER, 7-K, 2-BB, 4-H. Seasonally, he hasn’t had much support from his teammates; however he still is posting a respectful 3-8, 3.56. 1.40, with 98-K in 112.0-IP.


From his school web site on signing day:


Berry pitcher Collin McHugh signed a professional contract with the New York Mets Sunday at Berry's Steven J. Cage Athletics & Recreation Center. Having signed the contract, McHugh will report to the Mets' mini-camp in St. Lucie, Fla. on Tuesday.


"Ever since I was a kid it has been my dream to play professional baseball," said McHugh. "I am very excited to get the opportunity to play baseball at the next level, especially with a top-notch organization like the Mets." McHugh, who finished his junior season as the Berry and Southern States Athletic Conference's leader in strikeouts per-nine innings (9.05), will not return for his senior season at Berry in order to pursue his professional career. He finishes his time as a Viking with a 13-9 record and five saves. He finishes with a total of 167 strikeouts compared to just 66 walks.



The Mets drafted McHugh in the 18th round of the 2008 draft. 2008 stats as SP for Berry (a favorite drafting school for the Mets): 4.67 ERA 61.2 IP 67 H 20 BB 62 K 15 HBP


In 2008, McHugh pitched for Kingsport (0-0, 4.17, in 12 games, 8 starts).


MuHugh played 2009 for the Brooklyn Cyclones and had an outstanding year: 8-2, 2.76. 79K in 75.0 innings pitched.


1-1-10 Forecast: - McHugh is one of those under-the-radar kind of pitchers that just creeped up this year with great stats. Normally, some of these kids go straight to Lucy the next year, but the “Savannah Four” should prevent that from happening this time. Look for McHugh to join most of his Clone buddies in Savannah come March.


7-16-10 from: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/7/16/1572497/mets-farm-system-mid-term-review  - McHugh, drafted out of Berry College in 2008, is really in a similar situation to Fuller. He's pitching well but really not well enough to stand out in the Mets' class of pitchers at Savannah this season. Unlike Fuller, however, I'm a little more optimistic about McHugh's chances to stick in the rotation. The strikeout and walk numbers are similar, but he also brings a strong ground ball rate, giving him an extra dimension as a pitcher. But it's still an uphill climb for McHugh, who is 23 and needs to get some forward momentum to his baseball career. For what it's worth, McHugh also writes a fairly solid blog.

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