Thoughts on A Mis-spent Youth - Um, I Mean, David Rubin's Thoughts on the METS 2012 DRAFT!!!

Here's the skinny on how the Mets fared in the 2012 Amateur (Rule IV) Draft - I DON'T KNOW!!! Neither does ANYONE, for, say, the next 4-5 years or so, at the very earliest. "Carnak the Magnificent" hasn't blessed us with his prognostications yet, so it's impossible to know which of the 40 or so prospects the team drafted today will reach his potential, and anyone who reacts to those (needless) "Who Won/Who Lost" Draft recaps needs to take some Prozac and settle down now...I'm not being flippant or sarcastic, but instead I simply want to be on record as stating that there's no way of telling how this draft class will fare until they actually have a chance to prove themselves, and that means that at least 2-3 of these 40 players have to at least make it to AAA before we can tell how the draft is trending and another 1-2 will have to make it to the bigs before we can really evaluate these selections.

First, here's a complete list of the Mets picks:

Rd. 1 (12th),Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe High School, LA
Rd. S (35th),Kevin Plawecki, C, Purdue
Rd. 2 (71st),Matt Reynolds, 3B, Arkansas
Rd. 2 (75th),Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian School
Rd. 3 (107), Matt Koch, RHP, Louisville
Rd. 4 (140), Branden Kaupe, SS, Baldwin (Hawaii) HS
Rd. 5 (170), Brandon Welch, RHP, Palm Beach State
Rd. 6 (200), Jayce Boyd, 1B, Florida State
Rd. 7 (230), Corey Oswalt, RHP, Madison (Calif.) HS
Rd. 8 (260), Tomas Nido, C, Orangewood Christian (Calif.) HS
Rd. 9 (290), Richie Rodriguez, 2B, Eastern Kentucky
Rd. 10 (320), Paul Sewald, RHP, San Diego
Rd. 11 (350), Logan Taylor, RHP, Eastern Oklahoma State JC
Rd. 12 (380), Rob Whalen, RHP, Haines City (Fla.) HS
Rd. 13 (410), Matt Bowman, RHP, Princeton
Rd. 14 (440), Chris Flexen, RHP, Newark Memorial (Calif.) HS
Rd. 15 (470), Nick Grant, RHP, Milford (Del.) HS

Rd. 16 (500), Myles Smith, RHP, Miami Dade CC,
Rd. 17 (530), Stefan Sabol, C, Orange Coast CC
Rd. 18 (560), Paul Paez, LHP, Rio Hondo College
Rd. 19 (590), Tyler Vandenheiden, RHP, Samford U
Rd. 20 (620), Tim Peterson, RHP, Kentucky
Rd. 21 (650), Gary Ward, LHP, Bethel U.
Rd. 22 (680), Tejay Antone, RHP, Legacy (Texas) HS
Rd. 23 (710), Connor Baits, RHP, Point Loma (Calif,) HS
Rd. 24 (740), Andrew Massie, RHP, Dyer County (Tenn.) HS
Rd. 25 (770), Leon Byrd, 2B, Cypress Ranch (Texas) HS
Rd. 26 (800), Chris Shaw, 1B, Lexington (Mass.) HS
Rd. 27 (830), Zach Arnold, C, Franklin County (Ky.) HS
Rd. 28 (860), Jacob Marks, RHP, St. Clair SS
Rd. 29 (890), Austin Barr, C, Camas (Wash.) HS
Rd. 30 (920), Dustin Cook, RHP, Hargrave (Texas) HS
Rd. 31 (950), Vance Vizcaino, SS, Wakefield (N.C.) HS
Rd. 32 (980), Jon Leroux, 1B/C, Northeastern
Rd. 33 (1010), Jared Price, RHP, Twin Valley (Pa.) HS
Rd. 34 (1040), Mikey White, SS, Spain Park (Ala.) HS
Rd. 35 (1070), Brad Markey, RHP, Sante Fe (Fla.) CC
Rd. 36 (1100), Donovan Walton,SS, Bishop Kelly (Okla.) HS
Rd. 37 (1130), Ben Distefano, C, Lawrence E. Elkins (Texas) HS
Rd. 38 (1160), Jeff Reynolds, 3B, Harvard
Rd. 39 (1190), Patrick Ervin, 2B, Pace (Fla.) HS
Rd. 40 (1220), David Gonzalez, RHP, Gainesville (Ga.) HS

Okay, now that we've gotten THAT out of the way, here are the players that I am most excited about:

Cecchini,Plawecki, Koch, Nido, Bowman & Barr

That amounts to a shortstop, a catcher, a pitcher, another catcher, another pitcher and another catcher. Funny enough, this is an organization that classically built themselves around defense and pitching, with strong play up the middle. If you think about it, over the past 40+ years, the combo of Grote-Stearns-Carter-Piazza is one of the best foursomes at that position over that period of time in all of MLB. Sadly, it didn't flow from one to another without gaps, but that's 2 hall of famers (Carter, Piazza) who both were amongst the top 10 hitting catchers of all time; one of THE best defensive catchers who ever played the game (Grote); and, in Stearns, a catcher who, if he were playing today and put up the kind of numbers he did in his prime would be earning $15-$18 mil per year. Ironically, none of the four were developed solely by the team- Grote came from the colt 45's/Astros; Stearns, the Phillies; Carter, the Expos; and Piazza, the Marlins by way of the Dodgers (and all, also ironically, save Grote, came from within the division!) Although Josh Thole is proving better than many projected behind the dish, he still doesn't represent the long-term answer to the 2nd most important (some would say 1st) position on the field. This draft, if nothing else, provided the organization with a LOT of catching depth, and, possibly, a future starter at the position. 

The Mets drafted 6 catchers in all (and in Leroux, a potential 7th), as well as 8 middle infielders, including 5 shortstops. Although the Mets' brass said they weren't drafting for "need" it's hard to overlook the fact that more than 30% of their picks were either catchers or middle infielders, both areas of concern on the parent club, long-term, as well as presenting an overall depth problem throughout the minors at all 3 positions. I don't have a problem with the team filling out the minor league rosters in any way they think best. After all, at first glance, last year's draft, the first for this regime, APPEARS to have produced an excellent haul. Again, we won't know for another 3-4 years for that draft, so therefore it's even harder to project this year's strength. 

We have to trust the team's brain-trust until proven otherwise. Therefore, any "ratings" of this draft will simply fan flames that don't need to be sparked right now, considering that for a change, the state of the team's minor leagues is the best it's been in a very long time. Rather than dreaming of the Hawkins' and McCullers' that got away, I'd rather dream of an organization continuing to be built upon solid fundamentals (especially in light of last night's defensive debacle, again) and loaded with pitchers, catchers and shortstops, then nit-pick over players whom none of us have watched enough to be able to make a sound judgement about. Let's hope that at LEAST one of these 40 will make an impact at the big league level- and, maybe, just maybe, we'll have 3-4 make it and call this an excellent draft, after all...hey- it COULD happen!!!

Now, as far as what I PERSONALLY think? Well, I think we MIGHT have gotten some steals in this draft in the form of Nido and Barr dropping as far as they did. I am sure that there will be sign-ability issues, as Nido has a scholarship pending and I believe Barr is going to be perhaps the hardest to sign, as he has a scholarship to Stanford. In fact, Barr,(>>>) by most accounts, would have been either a late first-round or early supplemental round pick if scouts weren't convinced that he was going to college. If he does, indeed, continue his education, the team only loses a 29th round pick, and he goes back into the draft in 3 years as one of (potentially) the best catchers in the draft.

I also think that Plawecki is going to prove to be a better player then most draft pundits have him rated, and Cecchini has the potential to be a top-quality shortstop, based on his projectable skills in the field and on the basepaths. Reynolds has the chance to provide depth at third, and may end up being a very productive bat. Nido represents a potential true power hitter behind the plate, and although he is ticketed for Florida State, that, too could change. Koch might be moved to the bullpen, and with a few plus pitches may slot as a future closer, who has the potential to reach the majors in that role within 1-2 seasons. (<<<) Stankiewicz might just be one of those pitchers with great fundamentals and who, as he grows even taller and adds bulk, sees his fastball gain 2-3 mph and ends up sitting in the 93-94 range with consistency. Welch might also prove to be a future closer, in the image of a Billy Wagner. 


That's why it's entirely possible that the organization's strategy might have been to draft players at the start of the draft who were eminently more signable while still sitting high on the team's draft board, leaving room to sign players later on and be able to offer more $$. With the new rules, we won't know how this will all play out until after all the picks have signed, or not signed. And then we wait 4-5 years until someone is successful at the major league level. Or not...

I think, like last year, we'll be pleasantly surprised with both the quality and depth of this draft, but only time will tell...

A special thank you to my best friend, fellow Mets NUT and draft expert, Jon Elfenbein!!