Reese Kaplan - Looking Ahead to 2013

Yesterday I decried the lack of use of Jordany Valdespin and whack, he sails a 3-run homer to put the Mets temporarily ahead of the Nats in yesterday's see-saw extra inning battle.  In that post I predicted that the swoon was unavoidable, though there were steps that could be taken.


Now let's look ahead to this team in 2013 and see what we've got:


1B


Will the real Ike Davis please stand up?  It seemed that the Valley Fever, sophomore jinx or whatever got the best of Davis in 2012, but there are enough encouraging signs (and the minimal paycheck) to pencil his name in to play 1B.  The only reasonable alternative would be Duda if you felt you could land more in return for trading Davis, but right now he's spiraling downward just as Davis is kicking it into gear. 


2B


Murphy has actually been better than many feared he would be with the glove, but his bat -- his strength -- was erratic.  Valdespin is another option here but his glove won't make anyone forget Edgardo Alfonzo either.  Still, from a position of strength one of these two left handed batters could likely net something in return to fill another void.  More on JV later.


SS


Ruben Tejada is better than people thought he would be.  He's above average with the glove, steady if not spectacular, and works counts better than just about anyone else on the team.  While he did once have 19 steals in a minor league season, he's not shown the ability to steal bases while with the big club.  It would add to his arsenal since power is likely never going to be a key weapon for him. 


3B


David Wright is signed through 2013.  My prediction is the Mets will not do the right thing and extend him during this off season, but will instead wait with the contract issue hanging over both their heads for all of next year.  Then they will risk losing him as they did Reyes.  It is pretty shameful that most of the team's offensive records are held by journeyman Ed Kranepool.  I'd like to see Wright become our Jeter (without the Madison Avenue hype).


LF


Let's talk about the elephant in the room.  As long as Bay is on the team there will be that paycheck motivation to play him.  Solution -- have him leave the room.  It was a mistake.  Admit it.  Move on.  Blame it on Omar.  Unfortunately it leaves the Mets with yet another vacancy in the outfield.  Is Adam Loewen viable?  Could Mike Baxter cut it as an every day player?  Is Nieuwenhuis going to cure what ails him?  Do you need to acquire someone from the outside?


CF


Andres Torres is not the answer.  Everyone but Terry Collins (and perhaps Torres' family) knows that, yet they keep trotting him out there every day hoping to recapture that magical mediocre season in which he hit nearly .270 and slugged 16 HRs.  Look, if that's what you're hoping for in a career best year then you're destined for failure as a team.  Scratch what I said about Valdespin at 2B.  Stick him out here but don't wait until 2013 to do so. 
RF


Same question, different lefty -- will the real Lucas Duda please stand up?  He's shown flashes of what he might be.  He has the power -- no question about it.  However, he looked to be more than an all-or-nothing slugger.  In 2011 he showed patience, pitch selection and a penchant for singles and doubles in addition to HRs.  This year he's not quite Kingmanesque in his approach, but he's definitely headed in the wrong direction.  Unfortunately, given the lack of depth on the team in the OF position I don't see you have any choice but to try him again.


Rotation


Santana is a good comeback player of the year candidate, but if the Mets were smart he would accept the trophy while wearing another uniform.  For a truly contending team an arm like his is very valuable.  For the Mets who do have a few bright pitching prospects like Harvey and Wheeler who will be fighting for spots next season, they could benefit from salary relief.  Someone gave us Wheeler for a 3 month rental of Beltran.  The receiving end of this deal would actually have a year plus 3 months of Santana, so the net return to the Mets would probably depend on how much salary they're willing to eat.  Dickey needs to be signed again ASAP for his value to the team as a person as much as for his pitching ability.  As we all know, knuckleballers don't have the same career limitations as flamethrowers.  Niese is already signed.  Gee should be back.  Cut ties with Pelfrey...I'd rather take my chances on Harvey/Wheeler.  That leaves an extra slot for Chris Young or an acquisition.  Sure, Santana is a much surer thing than the two rookies, but think how the team could be improved if they got back $10 million or so of salary relief. 


Bullpen


Going into next season you are set with Francisco, Parnell, Beato, Edgin and likely Mejia.  Byrdak is a FA.  Ditto Rauch.  If there is a merciful god, Batista will be laying on a beach for the duration of the season.  The team could probably use a healthy closer for 2013 and beyond.  That might be where you can spend that Santana money. 


Without reverting to the old FA stopgap approach to team building, the Mets going into 2012 have glaring needs in LF and in the pen.  Could they solve them via trade rather than spending?  Perhaps...but then again nothing they have worth trading is necessarily anything they want to sacrifice. That is the risk of building from within...you're never sure how good your materials are until you've committed to using them.