1. ASTROS
Scouting director Mike Elias says the Astros have a couple of dark horses in the mix in case signability becomes an issue, but this draft class features three elite talents that Houston will focus on.
Texas prep fireballer Tyler Kolek would become the first high school righthander ever to go No. 1 overall if Houston selects him. His local appeal and 100 mph fastball would win the press conference.
But more likely, Houston looks to the draft’s two top lefthanders, who both have longer track records of success. San Diego prep Brady Aiken has thrown harder and had a sharper breaking ball while maintaining excellent command for a high schooler, and his star turn with USA Baseball’s 18-and-under team is another asset. But neither Kolek nor Aiken has Carlos Rodon’s combination of stuff, physicality and track record. Even when he’s not at his best, Rodon shows scouts a fastball/slider combination that could fit in a big league bullpen now. That makes him Houston’s best bet.
Projected Pick: Carlos Rodon
2. MARLINS: If the Astros don’t take him, it’s hard to imagine owner Jeffrey Loria allowing the Marlins to pass on the Cuban-American Rodon, who was born in Miami. Assuming Rodon is gone, the Marlins will take their pick of prep arms, with Kolek’s unique power too much to pass up. |
| Projected Pick: Tyler Kolek |
 3. WHITE SOX: The new draft rules have opened up owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s wallet, so if Rodon were to fall here the White Sox would take him. If Rodon is gone and Aiken is available, he would make sense here. There’s some talk of the White Sox shying away from Kolek, potentially in favor of a college arm, if Aiken and Rodon are off the board. |
| Projected Pick: Brady Aiken |
 4. CUBS: The Cubs pick fourth in a draft with three defined elite talents. Hoffman was a contender for this slot, throwing one of his best outings with president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer in attendance, before his late injury. The Cubs will consider San Diego prep catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson and Florida prep shortstop Nick Gordon, but their need for a pitcher likely will lead them to a college arm such as Texas Christian’s Brandon Finnegan or UNLV’s Erick Fedde. They’ll also look at reuniting Vanderbilt’s Tyler Beede and their minor league pitching coordinator, Derek Johnson, who helped recruit Beede to Vandy and coached him there for one season. |
| Projected Pick: Brandon Finnegan |
5. TWINS: The Twins are in on college arms, most notably Fedde and Louisiana State’s Aaron Nola, who fit the club’s profile for having strike-throwing arm action to go with first-round fastball velocity. The two top prep bats, Jackson and Gordon, are attractive options, however, particularly Gordon, a pure defensive shortstop. |
| Projected Pick: Nick Gordon |
 6. MARINERS: The Mariners have collected corner bats at the big league level and at the top of the draft of late, and Oregon State’s Michael Conforto is a local option in that vein. Jackson is this draft’s best bat, though, and with Mike Zunino behind the plate Seattle can afford to move him to the outfield get him to the big leagues on a faster track. |
| Projected Pick: Alex Jackson |
 7. PHILLIES: The Phillies are always going to be tied to high-ceiling prep talents like Gordon and Jackson, but both could be gone and Philadelphia took an athletic prep shortstop in the first round last year in J.P. Crawford. Evansville lefthander Kyle Freeland will be an attractive option for teams in this range, and the Phillies have a long history with him, having drafted him in the 35th round out of high school in Colorado in 2011. |
| Projected Pick: Kyle Freeland |
 8. ROCKIES: Freeland would be a good fit for the Rockies as well, as a native of the state and a college lefty. Scouting director Bill Schmidt has gone the college southpaw route three times before (Jeff Francis, 2002; Christian Freidrich, 2008; Tyler Anderson, 2011), but one of the high-ceiling righthanders might be his best option this year. |
| Projected Pick: Erick Fedde |
 9. BLUE JAYS: Toronto has two of the next three picks and a $9.5 million signing budget, so it might be a perfect landing spot for Hoffman. The Jays look for loud tools, so N.C. State shortstop Trea Turner and his top-of-the-scale speed also could be in play. It would make more sense for the Blue Jays to grab him here and roll the dice with their second pick. |
| Projected Pick: Trea Turner |
 10. METS: The Mets feel like they’re about to turn the corner in the big leagues and are well stocked with young pitching, so they would like a college bat who could move through the system quickly. Turner would be tempting if he’s available, but Conforto is the consensus best college hitter and has the polished approach the team is looking for. |
| Projected Pick: Michael Conforto |
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-mock-draft-track-record-lands-rodon-atop-first-mock/
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