6/12/14

Morning Report – June 12th – Draft Assessment, Daniel Murphy, Matt Harvey



                                                                               
Coming Later Today –       
                                                      
        9 30 am – Herb G – Minor League Report

        11 00 am –

        12:30 pm – Pick #18 – CF Raphael Ramirez – Pace Academy (GA)

         2:00 pm – Pick #19 – RHP Bryce Beeler – Univ. of Memphis

         3:30 pm – Pick #20 – RHP James Duff – Stonehill College (MA)

        6 00 pm - 2015 Draft Profile  - OF  -  Ryan Johnson  -  College Station (TX) HS




The Brooklyn Cyclone roster is up on their web site. I'm sure it will continue to update as more draft picks are signed.


A rare day game gives me the opportunity to talk about the Las Vegas 51s. 

     I know that C Travis d'Arnaud said that he needed a trip to Vegas to help 'find his swing' but it sure looks like he found it in a heartbeat. Yesterday, he went 3-5, with two home runs, and is now batting .600.

    Something must have happened to SP Darin Gorski. He only pitched 0.2 innings, giving up two earned runs. I can't get anyone in Vegas to talk directly with me regarding injuries so we'll have to wait until someone likes Adam Rubin gets through.

    OF Cory Vaughn continues to make the case that he should stick at the AAA level. Vaughn went 2-3, with two walks, and is hitting .269.



I asked Todd Gold of Perfect Game what he thought of the Mets draft:

        Todd Gold @TGold_PG  - @JohnMackinAde solid class. Doesn't have the wow factor of some other orgs, but 1st two picks are high chance guys & good base for the class


Response to my wishing Chase Bradford well at AAA -

Chase Bradford - Thanks Mack. Rough start but I'll get back to being me. I appreciate the support from you guys.



I heard back from Charley Thurber who has retired and moved on the gen-pop:               
        Charley Thurber        9:16am Jun 11 - Thanks Mack. Wish you the best too. Awesome following all of your coverage thru the years



Patrick Ebert of Perfect Game write a column on his first impressions of the teams that took part in the draft last week. He named six teams with ‘great first impressions’, six more with ‘good first impressions’ and lastly, six more with ‘the jury’s still out’.

I assume that this means that the Mets are ranked with the other 11 teams as being ‘meh’.

Let me tell you… all you need is two, maybe three ballplayers to emerge from a draft and become a start and all the so-called experts jump on the bandwagon.

There is only one thing that all 30 teams have in common right now. Nobody knows what the outcome of their picks will be until 3-4 years from now.

I’m now done taking a close look at the first 20 rounds… I’ve got 20 more to go. The one thing I’m walking away is the fact that Mets successfully picked players that were ranked much higher on their prospect list than when the Mets picked them. Sometimes this screams out as a player that has told people he was going to attend college, or wanted round 1st or 2nd money, and they fall in the draft. Others have other stories. But the one thing I’m seeing here is the fact that the Mets pick represent some very talents kids.

Many we never heard of many of them and we have no idea where their schools were, but when you dig into the numbers, there’s a lot of power added with high ceiling high school pitchers.

I’m going to leave it where it is right now and observe how they play the rest of this season for the rookie teams.

My guess is we’re going to see a lot of home runs.



One thing I did want to talk about was 2B Daniel Murphy.

I read some rant on Facebook about a story that said the Mets were not going to offer Murphy arbitration at the end of this year. Is this true? Did I miss this story?

How could you possibly consider not working out a deal with the best, consistent hitter (yes, even more consistent than David Wright) on the team.

Sure, it would cost you around $8mil. You paid $7mil for Chris Young. Can we really compare the return here?

Look, there’s very little we go to sleep every night and feel comfortable with. Let’s not add second base to all the other positions that are in flux.
Please send me a link to that story if it exists.  Thank you.



It was interesting to see Terry Collins’ pre-game comments to the mob (beat press) that the only way Matt Harvey will see mound time this season is if the Mets are ‘in it’. Sandy Alderson also needed to throw his two cents in about the future of TC in the organization.

Using the excuse that the only reason the Mets would pitch Harvey would be if they were a couple of games out of the second wildcard slot is a safe way to go. I’m not trying to be Debbie Downer here, but this team isn’t going anywhere this year. I only home they don’t drag on the knowledge of this and use the time in a valuable way to rid themselves of some contracts and play some questions marks.

For example:

        1B – Keep Eric Campbell up splitting time with Lucas Duda. It’s not a perfect situation but, the more at bats Campbell gets, the more comfortable he will get as a major league.

        2B – Would you just leave Murphy alone… please?

        SS – I’ll keep saying this no matter how much better Ruben Tejada looks. Give the job the rest of the year to Wilmer Flores and let’s see what he can do when he doesn’t have to worry about being taken out of the lineup the next day.

        3B – Play David Wright with some occasional rest.

        RF – It looks like Curtis Granderson is beginning to earn his contract. Play him.

        CF – Play Matt den Dekker until Juan Lagares comes back

        LF – Play Chris Young until the trading deadline in hopes of generating some interest. Then, release him, release Bobby Abreu with him, and play any combination of Campbell, den Dekker, Andrew Brown, and (one last time) Kirk Nieuwenhuis (giving maximum playing time in AAA to Cesar Puello).

        C – I would play Juan Centeno until Travis d’Arnaud comes back.
Don’t get me wrong. This isn’t enough talent to get things done, but it does represent the best the Mets have right now for the future.


Team desires at trade deadline:

        Giants – second base
        Athletics – second base
        Florida – pitching
        Braves – bullpen pitchers
        Dodgers – moving an outfielder

        Tigers - bullpen

21 comments:

Michi L. said...

Hey Mack with the As in need of a 2b man do you think the imposible could happen and they trade Addison Russel? Could a package of Murphy, Matz/Montero be enough?
I just want to say that the draft coverage was superb and your signing updates are the icing. Maybe you have some information about the 21 round guy? Somewhere read that he has a high ceiling.

Unknown said...

I don't see a reason why the A's would trade their young shortstop of the future. They tend to be the team that trades away their young talent before they start getting expensive for younger, more talented prospects. Can't see them paying Murphy $8M+.

Lowrie walks at the end of the year. Perfect time to let him go, collect a compensation pick (maybe) and bring up Russel.

bgreg98180 said...

All you need to know with this teams problems can be seen by looking at the hitting stats.
Duda .235
Granderson .224
Tejada .223
E. Young .220
Recker .207
Young, C .207
Brown .194
den Dekker .182
d'Arnaud .180
Teagarden .143
10 Players hitting below .240!!!!
6 Players hitting below .210??!!!!
4 Players hitting below .200???!!!!!
The Mets are not leaving men on base because they are choking.
They just can't hit. Whether someone is on base or not.
Sure all of the walks get people on base, but it just leads to all of the stranded runners when 10 players are averaging less than a hit every 4 times at bat.
Alderson needs to rethink some of his team building strategies.
Yes, pitching is valuable.
Yes, power is valuable.
But, you win by out-scoring your opponent, and a team can not score if the hitters can not make contact and if almost all of the hitters on your roster are averaging less than a hit every game.

Reese Kaplan said...

It's nice when great minds think alike. I'd almost given up chastising the nutty professor for leaving the three .300 hitters from Las Vegas on his bench night after night, but Mack has joined the good fight :)

Reese Kaplan said...

How will you know if Brown, Flores and Campbell can hit UNLESS YOU PLAY THEM?

Mack Ade said...

Michi - Thank you. All the info I have on draft picks go immediately up on the site.

The $8Mil+ figure that 'someone' is going to have to pay Murphy is going to put the skids on teams like this that like to get rid of the same kind of players

Mack Ade said...

Bob - I thought I had this all figured out when I kept saying "all you have to do is put together a rotation that will give up less than 3 runs in 7 innings"

The problem is the Mets still have to score 3 runs or more,

What a mess this year.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

Re:Brown, Flores, and Campbell

I agree that Flores should play just about every game at short this season. I want... no, I need to know if he has it.

I would keep playing den Dekker in center until Lagares comes back. I don't expect den Dekker to become a great hitter, but I'd like this time to be his last shot to prove that to me.

And then there is left field... you can't play Abreu there and who wants to. And if you're pissed now, EYJ is coming back soon.

I want to get some kind of offer for Chris Young and, that would never happen unless he is played and gets hot.

I don't know what to do here. In my point, considering all these guys, only Flores has the potential to be a star

bgreg98180 said...

I fear as I look forward to next year as well.
This team NEEDS hitters. Not just power.
Eligible postions to fill appear they will remain the same next year: ss, of, & 1b.
Currently there are not any prospects in the Mets system ready to fill these holes next year that should be expected to make enough of a difference as a hitter to make an impact.
That leaves free agency.
There does not seem to be a good crop of 1b free agents to guarantee enough of a impact difference compared to Duda.

SS free agents do offer opportunities to improve with impact. Hardy & Lowrie

None of the OF free agents, even when paired with Hardy or Lowrie in the line-up, seem to offer enough of an impact to improve the Mets offense.

Hanley Ramirez could be an example of the type of impact bat the Mets need, but what position would he play on the Mets? Is he still a suitable shortstop? If so, that just prevents the Mets from getting Hardy or Lowrie.
Does he move Wright off of 3b? This could strengthen the entire lineup if Wright moves to 1b.
Does Ramirez play 1b? same effect on line-up as moving Wright to 1b.
The only other alternative is Alderson using up his Trade chips. If this is the route he chooses to go, all I can say is that I hope he doesn't waste them.
Don't waste them on second tier players.
I would rather pay a higher price in trade for a definite young impact player.
Don't waste a couple of your trade chips on an older, might-be.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

There's a big problem with this team right now when it comes to attracting free agent bats. No one wants to play for them. They are told about the bad ownership, angry fan base, lack of crowds, and horrible stadium dimensions. Agents steer their clients to other teams.

I think we're in this mess until we develop our own talent like a small market team. Hell, the way we operate, we are a small market team.

bgreg98180 said...

Mack
The Wilpons/Alderson's short sighted decisions over the past few years has absolutely made this team what it is today.
I am positive you are absolutely correct when it comes to free agents wanting to avoid the Mets.
Developing the Mets own talent however is going to take years. And I mean YEARS.
Just think, how old will Wright and Murphy be by the time our best hitting help arrives?
How many of our talented pitchers go by the way side due to fizzling out or injury by the time the line-up help arrives through prospects?
This is NOT a brighter skies are just around the corner situation. Until the Wilpons/Alderson treat today with the same interest they keep showing tomorrow.

The Wilpons/Alderson have managed to do just one thing successfully, without any room for debate.
They have successfully turned a team that had a strong fan-base that would want to buy tickets to watch their team into apathetic spectators that do not have to look hard to find better things to do with their time & money.

That Adam Smith said...

Hi Mack. I think your assessments are generally pretty spot-on, but I have to disagree about Chris Young. There is absolutely no indication that he has any chance of heating up for any extended period of time, and certainly no chance that another GM hangs his playoff chase on the possibility that he'll have a positive lineup impact for the rest of the season. Playing the guy every day in hopes of this happening is a pipe dream, and does nothing but continue to kill this lineup, and frustrate the remaining fan base. Brown and Campbell may or may not be plus ML hitters, but either of them, I'm fairly certain, would be a serious offensive upgrade in LF.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

Everything I have written on 2014 and 2015 was based on a certain amount of the young, talented pitchers being traded for the position players needed.

The problem now is that Niese, Wheeler and deGrom are the only three 'kids' that are healthy.

Harvey, Syndergaard, and Gee are on the DL and Montero is struggling.

'We' may still be able to pull off a mid-season deal, but it would have to be for one of the three healthy guys I mentioned above.

Mack Ade said...

Adam -

You are right. I was only dreaming.

bgreg98180 said...

Mack
2014 & 2015 has brought to light a serious worry for a "build through pitching but ignore hitting" philosophy.
Tommy-John-Surgery

Steve from Norfolk said...

Mack -
My personal opinion is that one of the Three Stooges (Fred, Jeff, and Sandy) told Lannan to come back from his vacation and get ready to start because they are getting ready to trade DeGrom to somebody, hopefully the DBacks. With Nick Ahmed doing so well, they should be ready to cut loose one of Ahmed, Gregorius, or Owings. Gregorius has been hitting really well, and was called up to replace Cliff Pennington, who just went on the DL. They've been playing Gregorius at @nd, so they might want to keep him if he hits while he's up. Either one of the other two would be a good pickup for us.

Mack Ade said...

Steve -

Interesting.

I have heard nothing about Lannan.

Anonymous said...

After Lannan was DFA'd he had to leave the team to attend to a "family matter." He finally returned from earlier this week and reported to AAA Las Vegas

Steve from Norfolk said...

Christopher -
According to ESPN New York yesterday, he's in PSL doing a "mini spring training" before he reports to Vegas. He said he's been throwing, so it shouldn't take him too long to ramp up. He's supposed to pitch in some GCL or FSL games before reporting .He is going to be used as a starter.

Mack Ade said...

well, by my count, Vegas is still down a starter...

Gorski (he wasn't hurt last night... came out due to hour long rain delay), Montero, Verrett, Alvarado

Anonymous said...

Vegas started Carreno last night. Syndergaard should be back the next time that spot in the rotation is scheduled to pitch. That should bring them back to five. No need to force promotions that players aren't ready for.