Pick
1
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LHP Brady Aiken
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ANALYSIS: Fans are talking about the Astros pick here like it’s a whodunit mystery with a correct answer that you can figure from the facts given, but that’s not the way to think about it. This year, like the last two years, the Astros are working out their options at 1-1 (this year it’s 6 players in the top tier), price shop for each one in the weeks leading up to the draft, then logically work out which 1-1 pick at which price (in combination with who they could get with the money they potentially save if they go well underslot at 1-1) is the best option. They’ve made this decision either hours rather than days before the draft in the past two years and I’ve been assured they don’t know who they’re taking yet this year, either.
It works out that the rumored tire kicking targets for Houston are also my top 6 prospects this year (Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon, Alex Jackson, Nick Gordon, Aaron Nola, Tyler Kolek), which I believe is enough to constitute those as the top tier, though any one draft room may differ by a player or two. It sounds like the industry and probably even the Astros think Aiken is the best prospect, but Houston is very aware of the track record of prep arms versus hitters and seems very wary about going prep arm at 1-1. Lucky for them, Aiken should come in a good bit below the $7.9 million slot.
Unlucky for them, their next best option is an advanced college arm that could move quickly and may be the best fit for what they’re looking for (Rodon) is repped by Scott Boras and is asking for at least the full slot at 1-1. Even if the Astros have Rodon at #1 on their board, he isn’t the best value when talent-wise it’s a dead heat and one player cost 7 figures more than another.
Nola’s 1-1 rumors have been relatively quiet and I don’t think he’s a real option here as with the raw prep arm, Kolek. The interesting X-Factors to watch are Gordon and Jackson. Both are prep bats that were elite national standouts as far back as their sophomore years in high school and the list of prep bats with that kind of long resume and plus tools and/or playing premium positions that end up going in the top 5 picks is insanely good (Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Justin Upton, etc.). If you like the tools an makeup of Gordon and Jackson and the only question if they will be a quick-moving bat that becomes a big league regular, history says the odds are good; much more kind than the track record of prep arms.
Jackson is repped by Boras as well while Gordon is repped by his dad, former big league reliever Tom Gordon. It’s believed that Houston prefers Jackson and if he comes in at a price at or below Aiken’s, he very well could be the pick here. Boras has said to anyone who will listen that he thinks Rodon and Jackson are the two best players in the draft. He’s positioning Rodon as such and will position Jackson lower, but the question is how low and will Boras name a number in an effort to facilitate Jackson at 1-1, something he rarely does.
I think Gordon is just another option, likely the 4th highest one on the board for Houston, that probably goes 5th or 6th if he doesn’t go 1st, so an offer that starts with a 4 would be a win for Gordon and nearly $4 million saved for Houston. This is something they will seriously consider if Jackson is asking for too close to slot, they simply won’t take a prep arm at 1-1 and they like the potential options at picks 37, 42 and 75 to spend the savings on. Jackson could definitely go 2nd if he doesn’t go 1st, but also may drop to 6th.
What may be the motivation to watch in the signability maneuvering for these top couple spots is a pissing match between advisors, with Boras and new rival for the crown Casey Close advising four of these top six players. There’s a way for Boras to market his guys to go 1 and 2, but it seems like that won’t be enough for him as he’s done it all before in the draft: he needs to get a great bonus at both spots as well. What motivates these two guys the most (getting the highest bonus, being the highest pick and/or making the client happy) may be what drives where these top six players go; it would take a real bungling of the situation for one of these players to drop out of the top six picks.
Pick
2
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LHP Carlos Rodon
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ANALYSIS: This one is still hard to figure even if the Astros pick is guaranteed. There are rumors that Rodon, Kolek and Jackson all won't be passed on if they get here and, in this scenario, they're all here. The belief is that the scouting group is split on Kolek and Jackson and ownership wants another Cuban-American arm if the talents are close, favoring Rodon. Marlins sources insist ownership won't influence the pick, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Nola has also been mentioned here but that seems unlikely. The industry strongly believes the three pitchers go in the top three slots, Rodon is the best available on my board and I'll bet on the guy that the owner wants is the one he gets.
Pick
3
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RHP Tyler Kolek
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ANALYSIS: There are also a number of rumors flying about this pick. Nola is an underslot candidate while I've heard the White Sox both hate and love Kolek from various sources. Jeff Hoffman was the guy they wanted and the heavy hitters were at most of Tyler Beede's starts down the stretch, but neither makes sense this high. Again, the industry still strongly believes the three pitchers go 1-2-3 and I haven't heard enough to peg a potential underslot candidate here to break that up.
Pick
4
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RHP Aaron Nola
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ANALYSIS: This is where th draft really opens up, with rumors of Nola, Pentecost, Gordon, Hoffman, Finnegan, Conforto and Freeland all coming up here. I think it's down to Nola, Pentecost and Gordon with the two college players as the real decision in the room. I think Chicago ignores price and take the guy it wants, which I believe is Nola.
Pick
5
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SS Nick Gordon
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ANALYSIS: The Twins have been tied to Nick Gordon all spring. It looked like a done deal that he'd get here, then after Hoffman's injury it was an toss-up and now it looks again like the Twins will get their guy. Aaron Nola is the choice if the Cubs pick the Twins pocket, with Finnegan and Sean Newcomb both mentioned here.
Pick
6
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RF Alex Jackson
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ANALYSIS: The Mariners seem poised to take whichever of the top six players falls to them, which in this case is Alex Jackson, the guy they've been rumored to be coveting all spring. There has also been rumors all spring that the M's are hot after Sean Newcomb and if the wrong guy falls here, the belief is that he'll be the pick with Hoffman, Conforto, Nola and Turner all mentioned here.
Pick
7
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RHP Jeff Hoffman
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ANALYSIS: The Phillies are hot after Nola, but every team in front of them is kicking the tires as well, so it seems unlikely he gets all the way here. The Phils have been tied to Jacob Gatewood, Brad Zimmer, Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland, Michael Conforto and Sean Newcomb with Newcomb having the most late helium at this pick. Freeland, Hoffman and Newcomb are the finalists with the Phils favoring an advanced arm and Hoffman's upside is too much to ignore.
Pick
8
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LHP Kyle Freeland
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ANALYSIS: The Rockies have been tied to Freeland, a Denver native, for awhile as they favor tall pitchers with sink on their fastball to fit in their ballpark. Nola is the dream here, but he won't make it. Turner and Pentecost are real possibilities here, with Tyler Beede a longshot.
Pick
9
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SS Trea Turner
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ANALYSIS: Toronto has been tied to lots of players, a function of their history of aggressively chasing upside and/or tough signs while also having lots of scouts and two picks in the top 11. There's a rumor they've already cut a deal with Touki Toussaint at the 11th spot, as they aren't worried the Mets will take him. The Jays are rightfully worried that the Mets may take Turner, because they absolutely would, so they take him here. Sean Reid-Foley, Grant Holmes, Newcomb, Pentecost and Finnegan have all been mentioned here as well.
Pick
10
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ANALYSIS: The Mets #1 target is Turner, but the industry belief is he doesn't slip past the Jays at 9. Zimmer, Conforto and Newcomb are the backup plans, with Conforto the most advanced of the three and the believed preference if things play out this way.
for the rest of the draft - http://sbb.scout.com/story/1407185
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