STATISTICALLY YOURS - Tom Brennan

Hi folks, Mack graciously asked me to write the Sunday Morning Report.  Doing it should be a blast.

As a little background, I grew up in a family of 8 kids, almost entirely Met fans.  I rooted for Maris over Mantle in 1961, and got that right thru blind luck.  My father, a lifelong Yankee fan, suggested I root for the new club in town in 1962, and so my Met fanship started.  Pops was a huge sports fan, so besides the Yankees, he equally enjoyed watching Kiner, Murphy and Nelson with me when we could get the TV picture to stop rolling.  Good times.

I'm an analytical type and gravitate to, and am fascinated by, players' stats. I love seeing guys break of a mold, a la Eric Campbell when he started to become an on base machine the middle of last year.  I love guys like Leathersich and Akeel, who put up crazy strikeout #'s evens as they look to whittle the imperfections out of their repertoires.

As Met fans, while we get lucky enough to occasionally get an offensive gift drop in our lap (Piazza from LAD, Hernandez and Carter 30 - yes, 30 - years ago), we usually have been subjected to frankly offensive offenses over the years. So in the past few years, I try to look for bandaids as I glance through guys' stats to see who is accelerating and who is floundering in the Met Kingdom at large.  Who can help us win 11 out of 20 instead of 9 out of 20.  I like to challenge the status quo on guys who are here.

The upper Met minors may be lacking young, hot offensive prospects.  The lower minors may largely lack offensive future major league stars.   But a lot of guys are truly doing well and throwing their hats in the ring as future major league players.

Any of you who read my daily blog posts on minor league guys know that I like to look for incremental improvements to an offense that has been horrific from the 6th thru the 9th spots.  On a team that abhors intelligent spending, you look for what help you can.  Hence, I pushed for Campbell to be promoted, as a low K and high on base guy.  And while Andrew Brown has had a few cups of coffee, I'm firmly convinced he'd be an upgrade over Chris Young.   My brother Steve is my reality check: "Brown's just AAA, pitchers at the Mets' level will figure him out."  Steve's pretty smart, but I  still would love to see Brownie get a shot again...I find a .750 slugging % Migh-ty Compelling.

I pushed for Flores to play SS; he may be the second coming of Iron Hands Chuck Hiller (or maybe not), but he is an offensive upgrade at SS on a team starving for offense.   You advocate for what you can until ownership changes its approach. Seems Tejada (as of this writing, a few days before you read it) is showing a pulse - competition is good!

Duda has always been an intriguing puzzle to me, a guy who hit over .300 in July 2011, and in August 2011, and in Sept 2011, who I believe got derailed by the emphasis on working the pitcher.  One size does not fit all, and it is not what he should do.  We need him to pound long balls, not try for walks and strike out too much doing it.  Can he create a formidable career by being more aggressive in favorable counts, instead of floundering once he gets into pitchers' counts?  Steve says: "Get rid of him." He gets to the point! But time will tell, and I'd love to discuss being more aggressive with Duda myself.

I will zero in on one here.  Is Duda fixable, or is he not?  Maybe he explodes at the plate between when I write this and when you read it, and the fix already happened.  Feel free to embarrass me like that, Lucas.

But Duda has always been an intriguing puzzle to me, a guy who hit over .300 in July 2011, and in August 2011, and in Sept 2011, who I believe got derailed by the emphasis on working the pitcher.  One size does not fit all, and it is not what he should do.  We need him to pound long balls, not try for walks and strike out too much doing it.  Can he create a formidable career by being more aggressive in favorable counts, instead of floundering once he gets into pitchers' counts?  Time will tell, and I'd love to discuss that with him.

But – I decided to look at the stats to see if I could play Doctor for Slugger Duda.   Here’s what I saw – see what you think. 

When Duda hits the ball with zero strikes (working with #'s as of late May, before the Philly 5 game series), he was 12 for 26 with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs.  When he hits on an 0-0 count or when he is ahead in a count, he is 20 for 65, with 7 HRs and 16 RBIs.  When he makes out with at least 2 strikes on him, he is an anemic 10 for 79, with 1 HR and 5 RBIs.  After the count hits 1-2, he is 3 for 36 with no RBIs.  I ain’t no doctor, but what all of that tells me is that Duda is the wrong Dude to take a patient approach at the plate.  It tells me he should be ready to hack at ANY good pitch in a hitter’s count, and look to avoid getting behind in the count like the plague.

Interestingly, when I looked about 5 days prior, Duda was just 5 for 12 when he finished his at bat on an 0-0 count (first pitch) – an extraordinarily low percentage of at bats completed on the first pitch, a sign of hitting passivity.  I posted that observation.  Now he is 7 for 17, quite a change in a few days.  Makes you wonder if he and other Met players read Mack's posts.

I decided to compare Duda to the gold standard, Miguel Cabrera, to see what differences in these sorts of stats there are.  And to see if it could add to what Duda might want to consider, in terms of changing his approach.

Cabrera end his at bats on first pitch 33 times, a significantly higher rate than Duda – a sign he is more aggressive from pitch #1.  And Cabrera is 14 for 33 in those at bats, which gooses the batting average quite nicely, thank you.

On at bats when the pitcher has gotten him to 2 strikes, Cabrera is (as one would expect) better than Lucas.  However, Miggie only gets into counts with 2 strikes in 41% of his at bats (Duda 49%).  Interestingly, the Mighty Cabrera is better than Lucas with 2 strikes, but still quite anemic (87 at bats, .218, 2 HR, 7 RBI).  It is clear – 2 strike counts are a must to avoid, to quote the Kinks.

So besides the obvious talent differential (not an insult to Lucas – Miguel is the gold standard), it is clear that even Miguel is weak in 2 strike situations….so Lucas should not be working the count, as the Mets have encouraged him to, he should be trying to avoid pitchers’ counts at all costs. 

Solution?  Be much more aggressive on decent pitches in hitters’ counts.  Expected result?  Higher average, more power, a few less walks.  Good for Lucas, good for fans.  Hope he reads this.  That’s my take.  I don’t accept medical insurance.

One last note on working the pitcher.  Some guys can do it well and help the team win, others not so well.  One guys can wear closed shoes in the summer comfortably, another guy’s feet will be on fire.  People are different, the philosophy has to really take into account each player’s abilities to accomplish a task.  So don’t make everyone do it.  Hit more.  Win more.

Whaddya think? Anyway, thanks for having me.  Go Mets