Stephen Guilbert- Future Major Leaguers- Binghamton Mets

This is part 3 of a 4-part series analyzing which players in each minor league level looks like a future 25-man regular. Today we look at the Mets Double-A affiliate. I always like examining which prospects handle the jump from A-ball to Double-A. Apart from the jump to the bigs from any minor league team, this is the biggest jump these players will face, including, often, the leap from college to the lower minor leagues. 

Every organization has three types of minor leaguers:

     1.) Prospects the team hopes and intends on being starters on a winning team.

     2.) Regular role-players, bench pieces, bullpen specialists.

     3.) Organizational filler.

Within Category 1, we have trade bait: a luxury most teams want and few have. Within Category 3, there is also the “lottery pick”. This is the guy drafted, signed, or traded for who doesn’t quite fit into any of the categories and could end up anywhere from all-star to flameout. There are also players who bounce between the majors and minors. 

I want to examine who, level by level, in the Mets system, fall into either category 1 or 2. I am not interested in the Cat 3 guys.

I am going to ignore any level lower than low-A Savannah from my lack of familiarity with those players and also because we really do not know what we have there yet. I would love to put Blake Taylor and Marcos Molina on this list, but it is just too early to tell. Check in a few days and Mack and I will have collaborated on the Short-Season teams to round this out. I simply lack the knowledge on those players to make a good call. 

You can find my analysis on St. Lucie here and Savannah here. 

Binghamton:

Category 1:

If Brandon Nimmo's current .427 OBP were performed in the Major League, it would rank 2nd in all of baseball, trailing only Colorado Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki

OF Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo is the easy one. He has power, speed, plays a good center field, was an early draft pick, has good size and strength, and, most notably, is extremely patient. Try a .396 career minor league OBP out for size. If that doesn't do it for you, how about .427 across High-A and Double-A. 

Nimmo is still just 21 years of age and should stay in Binghamton the rest of the year. Don't count this guy out for an early-2015 roster spot. The Mets will probably save a year of eligibility with him and keep him in Las Vegas until June 1st, 2015, but after that, I see no reason this will not be our starting left fielder for the next half decade. This is a clear top-50 prospect in baseball and if the power continues to develop, a future All-Star. 

2B Dilson Herrera

This is another easy one. Sure, some could make the argument that he walks too little, strikes out too much, plays only an average defensive second base and lacks the size to have any power in the bigs. However, after as successful a jump to Double-A as a player can have, all of those worries can be put to rest. Dilson just turned 20 years old, making him one of the youngest minor leaguers above A-ball across all leagues. 

In regards to his offensive profile, there is little Herrera does not do. He gets tons of hits--more than any other Mets farmhand thus far in 2014, has clubbed five homers and 21 doubles, stolen 17 bases, and gotten on base in 36.6% of his at bats, and an incredible 40.7% of his at bats after the daunting jump to upper minors baseball. Sure, much of the OBP is batting average and thus BABIP sustained, but this kid hits and he hits a ton. The strong OBP will always be there if he hits like this. He will be an average defender at second but that should be more than adequate considering what his contributions at the plate. If Murphy does get traded, this could be his replacement and the future leadoff hitter for a competitive Mets team. 

LHP Steven Matz

I am going to make a bold prediction: Of the players Double-A and lower, Steven Matz will have the highest WAR of any of them by the time his career is over. Yes, the multiple Tommy Johns are concerning and he is not a young prospect. Sure, his breaking pitches are still developing. However, when on, Matz is one of the best lefties in baseball--majors or minors. He's long, tall, and one of the most physically strong minor league pitchers I have ever seen. His fastball reflects that strength. At worst I see this as a Johnny Venters-esque late-inning dominant reliever. At best, a Lesterian power lefty. Matz is a true prospect and one of the rare cases in which I just do not care about his age. He should see top-100/top-50 prospect lists very soon as he is having yet another impressive season. Plus, despite the considerable time he missed, Matz just recently turned 23. That is not old for the Eastern League. This is as if a college junior were drafted by the Mets two years ago. That is just fine. People need to start paying attention to just how good this guy is. 

*Editorial Addition: The above trio are all within the top 100 best minor league players right now. 

LHRP Jack Leathersich

One of the more frustrating minor leaguers the Mets have, "Leather" strikes out more batters than many starters in the minors. If Matz is a potential Venters, so is Leathersich. What makes him so frustrating is his walk rate. A more pitch-to-contact could prove beneficial to the smallish lefty from Massachusetts...even if the obscene strikeout rate drops. Still, this should be a solid major league lefty reliever within a year. 

RHP Gabriel Ynoa

After a successful, albeit not dominant, stint in St. Lucie to start the year, Ynoa earned the promotion to pitch in mid-state New York and has turned in one poor start (5 runs, 9 hits in 5.1 innings) and one excellent one (a seven inning complete game shutout with 9K and 0BB). Ynoa is a low-walk, pitch-to-contact righty with a solid 3-pitch mix and good composure on the mound. He pitches deep into most every and his Start/Decision ratio reflects it, as does his W-L record. Over his last 38 starts, dating back to his first outing of 2013, Ynoa is 24-6. No, I have not changed my mind and suddenly care about wins and losses, but Ynoa pitches a lot of innings and a lot of effective innings. Combine that with pitching a lot of innings with the guys listed above as his teammates and yes, it is a recipe for success. I see few other scenarios than a back-end starter here. I do not think he would be better as a reliever. The floor is very high but the upside is not the same as it is for Matz, Montero, and Syndergaard. However, control righties with good size and good fastballs always have jobs in the bigs. My guess is Ynoa will not pitch a single game for the Mets but have a solid career elsewhere. 

Type 2

RHRP Cory Mazzoni

I did not like this draft pick. I still don't. Also note how I have him as a relief pitcher. The fastball is good enough and he has enough pedigree to be an average, middle-inning reliever for the Mets or another team. 

2B T.J. Rivera

Oh, Mr. Rivera, what do we do with you? I never have given this guy any credit. He is 25. He was never drafted. He comes to the upper minors lacking the pedigree and scout love that every other player on my list so far possesses. Yet, consider this: Rivera is extremely good at hitting a baseball. 

What else matters? After hitting .341 as a 25-year-old in A-ball, the Mets rewarded him with a promotion to Double-A and all he has done in 11 games since his promotion is hit .342/.422/.500/.922. He's knocked five homers and 19 doubles this year to go along with tons and tons of singles. He's 6'1", just shy of 200 pounds, and was born in the Bronx, NY. How can you not root for this guy? He is the definition of an underdog and proves that you do not have to be drafted to be a major league baseball player. 

I have to consider that there is at least a 50% chance Rivera makes the Mets or another Major League team as either a utility infielder, pinch hitter, or regular starting second baseman. These things happen, too, just look at the Cardinals, who have made elite players out of Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, and Allan Craig. No, none took as unlikely a route to the majors, but when you hit, you find your way onto a roster. Rivera hits. He hits really well. 

Wait and see/fringe players

LHRPs Chase Huchingson and Adam Kolarek

One of these two guys has to be a major leaguer eventually. They are both big lefties with good enough stuff to, at minimum, be a loogy for a major league team. I prefer Kolarek, who has the better fastball and has been a successful reliever everywhere he has pitched. "Huch" is newer to the relief role and I have yet to see him since his transition. If the shorter outings result in better velocities, he could turn into a solid reliever.

For now, I cannot decide which, if either of these guys, deserves recognition as a future major leaguer. I also struggle convincing myself these guys won't be another Nick Evans/Josh Satin type--i.e. players good enough to play in the major leagues but aren't worthy of a roster spot. Ahead of them on the lefty reliever depth chart already are: Jack Leathersich, Darin Gorski, Scott Rice, Josh Edgin, and Dana Eveland. Eveland might not be a factor but Matz might also see a transition to the bullpen and every major league team actively shops for veteran relievers, particularly reliable lefties. I see low odds for these two unless they can start dominating and force the issue. For now, they are Cat 3 guys in my book. 

RHPs Hansel Robles and Rainy Lara

These are two of my favorite pitchers in the Mets system, mainly because I got to see both pitch quite a bit in Brooklyn and each gave me some of the most memorable performances I have seen in the minors. I witnessed Robles' near-no-hitter and a few dominant Lara starts in which he made rookie league hitters look foolish. Both turn 24 before the start of next season and offer good fastballs to go along with promising 3-pitch mixes. Both have had success in many minor league stops throughout their careers. 

Why do neither make the list? Frankly, I do not see a role for either guy. They have to be considered trade bait as both would slot nicely into many other teams' systems. 23 is not old for the Eastern League but it's not young, either, and neither has dominated this year the way they needed to. Either could go on a tear and do exactly what Jacob deGrom has done over the past 18 months. I understand that. However, I have the same problem with these two as I do with the lefties above. If you convert them to relievers, they are behind Vic Black, Bobby Parnell, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Jeff Walters, Zach Thornton, Gonzalez Germen, John Church, Chase Bradford, and possibly Matt Bowman. That's really tough. Keep them as starters and they're behind Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Niese, Gee, Syndergaard, Matz, Montero, Ynoa, and, again, maybe Bowman. Neither route leads me to believe these guys can be a steady major leaguer. 

Jayce Boyd, Darrell Cecilliani, Kyle Johnson, Dustin Lawley, Travis Taijeron, Wilfredo Tovar

Curious to how good the Binghamton Mets are? I have just listed seven players who will be major leaguers, four pitchers who have enough talent to be (with some luck, a change of scenery, injuries, or whichever of the hundreds of paths major leaguers take to get their spots), and here are six (!) more guys who I could see becoming major leaguers. I have them as Cat 3 guys now because each has a glaring enough problem to keep me from predicting a major league regular out of them. Boyd does not hit enough and certainly does not have enough power to be a first baseman. The outfielders are a bit old, blocked, and have not performed well enough to force any promotions. Tovar could easily find his way onto a major league team because of his slick glove and contact ability. He is also young enough for prospect status but the kid just does not hit a lick. Again, I am looking for major league regulars here and none of them fit the bill. 

Category 1: 5 players

Category 2: 2 players

and TEN other players on the Binghamton Mets who could see their way onto a major league roster, if all goes well. For now, add another seven players to the master list. 

Check back tomorrow for the closest team to the parent club, the Las Vegas 51s, to see what we have there. 

--SG