Mack's Mets: Mack - Rotograph Mets Pitching Tiers: May

5/14/15

Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer
Johnny Cueto
Matt Harvey - Harvey’s price surged with each passing Spring Training start and he has justified that and then some so far. The Mets have only let him top 100 pitches once and that’s because he was in the midst of a complete game against the Yankees. Even then, he still only finished with a perfectly reasonable 107 pitches. They are going to protect him here and there with a six-man rotation so he might not get 32 starts, but look what he did in just 26 back in 2013.
TIER 4

Bartolo Colon - Colon is so awesome. How can you not root for him? He turns 42 and drops a 13-year high in K rate because why not? The 22% rate isn’t likely to hold, but it’s still impressive even if only for a month. I’d expect him to offer up something in the 16-18% range. If you are going to have him on your team, then commit to it. Don’t try to spot start him or figure out when it’s going to sideways, just let him pitch anywhere but Coors. He can dominate great teams or get knocked around for 10 hits against weak ones, but more often than not he is going to be good. His 2013 is still a legitimate upside (2.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but plan for something around a 3.50 ERA the rest of the way and enjoy anything else as bonus.

Jon Niese - The bulk of this group is similar: low-strikeout guys who have enough talent to overcome that deficiency and still deliver decent ratios. Of course, with the low strikeout totals, the margin for error is much lower, but it’s hard to get a full roster of strikeout-per-inning guys. There are also some health concerns within this group (Haren, Hudson, Anderson, and Niese), but you can feel comfortable expecting some usable performance when they’re upright.

Dillon Gee - Gee is a total WYSIWYG. He’s lived in a tight band of mediocrity the last three years and I’m sure he’ll remain there for the foreseeable future. Let’s see if this 59% GB rate is for real, though, as it could push his ceiling up a bit. He’s always had a groundball lean (1.3 GB/FB), but this is elite and would actually change his outlook some.

Pages