3/5/18

Reese Kaplan -- Spring Training Pitching Thus Far



Well, it may appear as if the starting rotation glut will resolve itself as a second straight alarming outing by Steve Matz suggests he may not be 100% healthy.  If so, then your starting rotation begins the year with Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jason Vargas and perhaps Jacob deGrom.  That would then open up bullpen slots for potential swing men/spot starters like Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Rafael Montero.

In the bullpen you know for certain that Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, Anthony Swarzak (if healthy) and Jerry Blevins will be there.  After that it gets fairly murky as there have been some mediocre auditions by some folks in Spring Training.   

Let’s start with the good news first:

Paul Sewald – At times last year Sewald looked every bit the quietly dominant pitcher he’d been throughout his minor league career until he was overused by the braintrust then in charge.  This spring he’s back where you’d want him to be, throwing to a 2.25 ERA though he has given up 6 hits in his 4 IP.

Corey Taylor – The big man is actually performing better this year than he has in his minor league career.  He’s been in 4 games and has yet to surrender a run.  He’s not on the 40-man roster, though with David Wright still inexplicably occupying a slot there the possibility exists to add a non-roster player.

Matt Purke – After a late start due to illness in the beginning of camp, Purke has only appeared in 2 games but he's been flawless thus far.  Given the lack of lefties on the staff, he’s got a leg up due to his southpaw capabilities. 

Chris Flexen – Although he was pretty much awful during his 2017 forced audition, he’s been quite capable thus far, having only given up 4 hits in his 5 IP.  Since he’s always been a starter and there are a plethora of right handed options I would expect that no matter how well he does he’s ticketed to be part of the 51s’ starting rotation.

P.J. Conlon – Until yesterday the Irish starter turned reliever was not looking as if he was adapting well to his new role.  However, with three scoreless innings to close out the game against the Nationals on Sunday he lowered his spring ERA to a tidy 2.70.  It's not beyond the realm of possibility he comes north with the club, but I'm more inclined to think they will try to keep Rafael Montero who is out of options until injury, ineffectiveness or a trade occurs to open up a roster spot.  If Conlon spends a month or so and does well out of the pen he's likely to get an early call up despite never having pitched in AAA before.  After all, the club shouldn't plan on going the full season with just a single lefty in the pen.  Of course, he's not yet on the 40-man roster so that will work against him.

Then we have the less-than-stellar crew:

Taylor Bashlor – If only he could harness his control, then we’d be doing cartwheels about his ability to get strikeouts seemingly at will.  He had a rare 1-2-3 outing just recently, but he’s not pitched above AA before and at best would be expected to be in the Las Vegas pen.

Jamie Callahan – Part of the haul for Addison Reed, he’s demonstrating his live arm but with mixed results.  His 4.50 ERA isn’t terrible but the 4 hits in 4 IP is a bit of a concern.

Kevin McGowan – He cleared waivers when bumped from the 40-man roster.  Maybe the other GMs are pretty savvy as he’s not acquitted himself well thus far, pitching to a 30.86 ERA.  Ouch!

Marcos Molina – This former highly regarded starter is working his way back from TJS and the rust shows.  He’s given up a lot of hits and runs while offering up a 6.75 ERA.  He’ll be in the minors for sure.

Jacob Rhame – The bespectacled former Dodger farmhand has also been hittable, having given up more hits than innings pitched.  His 4.50 ERA is middle of the pack.

Hansel Robles – The once promising reliever was banished to AAA last year after they finally grew exasperated with his gopher balls.  Thus far this spring it’s not looked good for him and given the fact he has options, I’m betting he’s not coming north.  6 hits in 4 IP and a 9.00 ERA. 

Drew Smith – The man with the best resume of all of the relievers obtained during the selloff, he’s had a bit of a rough audition as well.  He’s only given up 2 hits in his 3 IP, but he’s sporting an unimpressive 6.00 ERA and is not yet on the 40-man roster.  He has AA or AAA in his future. 

There’s a huge wildcard in all of this bullpen speculation.  The 22 year old Gerson Bautista has never pitched above A ball, but he’s certainly opened a lot of eyes already with his 100+ mph heat and his ability to retire batters easily.  His career numbers suggest it’s not a fluke with a four-year minor league ERA of just 2.62 but like many power arms he struggles with control.  He is on the 40-man roster and it’s possible they may aggressively promote him (which, since the Jenrry Mejia situation back in the Jerry Manuel days) is not normally in the Mets’ collective DNA.  I’d expect him to start in AA and see how he handles closing duties. 

There are a few lefties on the minor league side of camp – Kyle Regnault and David Roseboom – but their chances of going to Queens to start the year are about on par with Sears turning a profit.  It’s possible, but highly unlikely.   

9 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Good analysis.

Thoughts on Matz?

Dove said...

Whether team wants to accept it or not they need a second lefty in the pen. I lack knowledge of Purke so my bias has me in favor of Conlon to break camp with team. He's our Gilmartin 2.0 but better IMO.

I'm fascinated now with Corey Taylor. I'd love to say I knew in 2016 he was a stud but honestly my eyeball test didn't see sexy flash from the guy in a St. Lucie Mets uniform. He was a good closer. He got the job done. I think I was too busy thinking about the craze of 95+mph guys elsewhere to truly notice how good Taylor slider was/is.
I'm rooting for him to take this success over to minors next month and come back soon!

That Adam Smith said...

Matz, I think, is no lock for a roster spot. If the kid still has stuff to work out, and he’s got options, why not let him start in AAA? My question then is whether we see wheeler or Gsellman take his place (also, no lock).

Tom Brennan said...

Matz needs to start performing, or a few weeks to a month in Vegas could await him. The team has early options, and need Matz to be the real Matz for the long haul this season. I think he is healthy and just needs to get squared away, so I am not panicking, but I said the same thing last spring when I should have panicked.

Regnault and Roseboom - compared to Sears, I agree they will be back in the minors earning Penneys to start the season.

Bashlor and Bautista - the two BA boys with live arms and questionable control - both may have had jitters, let's see how they roll from here to see where they end up in the minors. My guess is Bashlor closes for Vegas, Bautista closes for Binghamton, unless Corey Taylor bumps him there early on.

Reese Kaplan said...

Purke has not had a great minor league track record, though he did better at AAA -- 3.74 -- than he had earlier in his career. Both Regnault and Roseboom actually have performed better and if they're inclined to give a non-roster invitee a look you'd think they would get the first glance. However, they're banished to the minor league side and thus are not in the mix. Conlon is interesting but he's never pitched above AA. There don't appear to be any available lefty free agent pitchers still seeking a job. Even Oliver Perez landed one.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, I think they really like Conlon. He might just sneak in there in early 2018.

Hobie said...

Small sample ST stats are so deceiving. Eye test has more cred here IMO.

eg. Rhame. 3 of the 4 H (and both runs) he has surrendered came in the same inning. 2 o the 3 were seeing eye (he & Nido did allow 2 SB that inning), NO walks & 6 K in 4 IP is the upside. Just one of those 2 GB's is to the left or right and he's sitting on a 0.00-2.25ERA and a 050-0.75 WHIP.

Dave Schulps said...

Spot on, Hobie. A couple of grounders or bloopers that go the other way and everybody's talking about Rhame and saying Conlon won't be a factor. Small sample size is a bitch, which is not to say Matz's outings should be ignored -- two five run innings in a row is concerning any time of year, but I also wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Matz is finished, either. As other folks have said, it's his first two starts coming off major surgery. I'm more concerned that Wheeler will never be able to cut down on his walks and 30-plus pitch innings.

Reese Kaplan said...

When your role is not carved in stone (like Yoenis Cespedes, for example) every IP and every AB is critical to the decision making process. For example, Juan Lagares is well below the Mendoza line and Brandon Nimmo is threatening .400. If the season started tomorrow, who would you want starting in CF? Me? I ride the hot hand.