12/26/18

Reese Kaplan -- Peter Alonso: A Nice Problem to Have



One of the great unknowns going into the 2019 season is what to expect from Peter Alonso.  After a few years of showing flashes hampered by injuries, he put it all together last year over two levels and delivered .285/36/119 while striking out a manageable 128 times given the high-power output. 

When Brodie Van Wagenen was named General Manager, one of the first things he did was fly out to Arizona to see Pete in the Arizona Fall League and to share his vision of where he saw him fitting into the Mets’ major league team.  That very effort by BVW probably spoke volumes to Alonso and one could not imagine Sandy Alderson nor any of the Three Stooges having done the same. 

Now if we were a fly on the wall in that meeting we would have learned what exactly was communicated.  The big issue, of course, is the matter of starting the season in the majors or holding him back to manipulate his service to give the club an extra year of control, a well-used technique by most clubs who have potential stars such as Kris Bryant of the Cubs. 

The issue is both financial and promotional.  Obviously, an extra year of financial control could be worth quite a bit when you see a Jacob deGrom in line to receive well over $12 million as he approaches the end of his arbitration cycle. 

On the flip side, promoting Peter Alonso on Opening Day would signal the end to the last seven years of prospect suppression and could help generate immediate interest by fans who have become cynical and jaded by the last few years of lackluster performance.  Think, for example, how the presence of Jeff McNeil ignited interest in the club at the end of a lost 2018 season. 

The excuse that would be used about Alonso is that his defense needs work, just as the Cubs said about Kris Bryant.  I don’t know how 2—3 additional weeks in the minors would convert someone from Dr. StrangeGlove into Keith Hernandez.  It is a thinly veiled effort to justify the service time delay and one I’m sure the Player’s Association will be tackling in the next agreement.  Bear in mind that Alonso won Defensive Player of the Month for the extra efforts he put into his game. 

Now there are a great many people who make it to the majors on the strength of their bat alone without having a position they play adequately.  You don’t need to look any further than recently banished Wilmer Flores to see someone who could swing the bat but couldn’t deliver adequately at any spot on the diamond where he was tried.  Rumored trade candidate Nick Castellanos on Detroit is in a similar situation having flamed out at 3B and now struggling to handle corner outfield responsibilities.

There are players who improved significantly over the course of their careers as defensive players.  Tony Gwynn is a great example of someone whose hit tool not only justified him being on the big club, but over the years he turned himself from liability to adequate.  Who’s to say Alonso can’t do the same?

Personally, I think they will go into Spring Training telling the world that 1st Base is an open position, and may the best man win.  If Alonso has a hot Spring, then they can justify the immediate promotion.  If he does not, then they have additional fodder to say he needs more time at AAA. 

If he does indeed begin the year in Syracuse, I would expect Todd Frazier (if he’s still here) to play 1B with Jeff McNeil at 3B.  The wildcards in the mix include Dom Smith and even Travis d’Arnaud. 

It’s not even January so there’s still a lot of time to reshape the roster.  I’m in the camp of hold him back for three weeks.  You’d still get enough of a season to make him a solid Rookie of the Year candidate and gain that extra year of control. 

How about you?

5 comments:

bgreg98180 said...

It's only 2-3 weeks.
Is there really anything that is harmful in starting Alonzo in the minors??

Will 2-3 weeks on Frazier or Smith at 1st base be so much worse than having Alonzo debut during that time?

I just don't see this as an issue that matters to anyone other than the players union members.

If the Mets want to make sure they do not suffer offensively during those 2-3 weeks, they could of course add Harper to the team.

Tom Brennan said...

I like to add in Pete's 2018 Arizona Fall #'s, giving him a MLB-comparable 159 games for the year and 42 homers (more than any Met has ever hit in a season) and ONE HUNDRED FORTY SIX RBIs. 146!

He did that, what, after only about 500 plate appearances before 2018?

I think he will be great - whether he is at 1B on Opening Day or late April. Nelson Cruz is another example of big bat, so-so field. He's done "all right".

Let's get Pete started - so he can break Mets' season and career home run records.

Zozo said...

Hold him back. Let him get his necessary 3 weeks more of seasoning. Play Smith there for those 3 weeks and see if he can bring up his trade value, if not right to Syracuse he goes.

Mack Ade said...

I'm sold on Peter now.

It doesn't bother me that I have to wait a couple of weeks for him.

Give him a first baseman's mit when he gets here and don't let him take it off until the season ends.

bill metsiac said...

Let's see what happens in ST before rushing to judgment on the 2-3 weeks which are so "critical" to his development. For all we know, Dom may have a great ST and earn a look for that period.
As for the question of whether Sandy would've gone to AZ, as Brodie did, you seem to forget that Sandy and the others in the FO have been following Alonso since before he was drafted.

As the "new kid on the block" I can understand Brodie wanting a first-hand look, but this is in no way a reflection on his predecessors.