2/13/19

Tom Brennan - SANDY ALDERSON'S BIGGEST REGRET - AND OURS TOO


Tom Brennan - SANDY ALDERSON'S BIGGEST REGRET - AND OURS TOO
In early February, as reported in the NY Post, "there was a decision during his tenure as the Mets general manager that still bothers him (Sandy Alderson).
“The one thing I regret — and I told him this — was not signing Daniel Murphy,’’ Alderson said. “We’ve kept in touch. He’s a great person and a really good player.”
That decision was extremely impactful.  Much worse than regrettable.
Re-signing Murphy, for a normal franchise, was a lay up, a complete no-brainer to me for a team that had just barely lost a World Series in a season where Murphy's value was huge..  
Daniel ignited in mid-2015 and hit like an MVP over the last 2 months of the Mets' surge to the playoffs in 2015.  Getting Yoenis Cespedes that July was huge - but Murphy coming down the stretch in 2015 was sensational: 50 games, 45 as a starter, .292 with 19 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers and 37 RBIs.
Then, he was THE REASON the Mets got through the first 2 playoff rounds against the extremely formidable Dodgers staff and a great Cubs team.  
In 9 astonishing pre-world series playoff games, he hit .421, with 7 homers, 11 RBIs.  Yeah, I know, he was only 3 for 20 in the World Series, but man, the dude was on fire in the playoffs.  Essentially from August 1 on, he was a juggernaut.
From this website, I was imploring Mets management to re-sign Murphy and not be cheap.  Three years, $30 million or so, for a guy who certainly seemed to have taken his offensive game to a whole, new, higher level - but was that a lot for a second baseman, when perhaps we could go cheap with a Gavin Cecchini?  No it was not.


Anyway, I was recommending that the Mets sign Daniel and put him at FIRST BASE, and trade Lucas Duda.  
Lucas had 33 doubles and 27 homers in just 135 games - but he hit .242 and fanned a whopping 138 times because he never stopped taking too many pitches too early in the count.  Daniel fanned 100 times fewer - just 38 times -  yes, contact counts, my friends.  Just ask Jeff McNeil.
Duda was boring, too, c'mon admit it, and often disappointing - when he came up in the clutch, he was one of those guys you expected to fail, you just weren't sure how.
Duda made a not terribly expensive $6.7 million in 2016, and the Mets surely could have found some team to take him in a trade.  Since Murphy ended up making not much more in 2016, salary differential in 2016 was minimal.
Daniel also brought tremendous versatility - what if, say, the Mets second baseman got hurt?  He could have switched to second.  What if the "unimaginable" happened and "durable" David Wright became incapacitated?  Daniel could play 3rd.
To me it was an absolute no-brainer.
Compounding the mistake, Murphy went to the Mets' arch-rival Nationals - and did what?
Hit a prodigious .347/.390/.595 with 47 doubles, 5 triples, 25 homers and 104 RBIs despite playing just 142 games, and coming in 2nd in the MVP voting in 2016.  
Duda, meanwhile, had a terrible and injured season (47 games, .229), and David Wright managed less than 40 games, hitting .226, before essentially ending his career.
The Mets finished just 8 games behind the Nats, and lost in their one game wild card, largely because they couldn't hit - but Daniel sure could.  
There seems to be very little doubt that the Mets would have won the division again in 2016 had they kept Murphy.  Had that happened, perhaps they'd have gone on to win the World Series, given their hot finish to the season without Murphy.  They might have been close to unbeatable with Daniel.
In 2017, Murphy hit almost as well as his sensational 2016 - while the Mets' hitters crumbled.  One such hitter was the aformentioned Duda - just a very weak .219.  Wright? We all know he was a DNP in 2017.
The Mets finished 27 games out in 2017 - with Murphy, that gap would have been far smaller.
2018 with Murphy at first base, instead of Adrian Gonzalez and Dom Smith sucking up most of the games at 1B?  Even playing just 91 games due to his knee surgery, Daniel hit a potent .299, which certainly would have helped a team with impotent offense win more than the 77 games they managed, while finishing 13 games out.
Sandy Alderson saying it was the one thing he regretted was simply a HUGE UNDERSTATEMENT.  It was just plain stupid.
P.S. Duda signed a minor league deal for 2019 after a lousy 2018 with Kansas City, David Wright retired, and Daniel Murphy is likely to put up a huge year in Colorado, so the saga has not yet been fully told.  
We traded for Cano (and Diaz), giving up two top prospects.  Cano, as good as he is, will likely find it hard to be as good as Murphy in 2019.  Maybe we would have still gotten Diaz, but somehow kept Jarred Kelenic, who could be a big star someday.
Our Murphy regret may continue.






6 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

My counterpoint arrives on Friday. I refrained from calling you an ignorant slut. ( OK, you are about my age range so you should get that reference -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c91XUyg9iWM )

Tom Brennan said...

And I am exactly that LOL

Imagine how well Murphy did under pressure in 2015. And a Dud on first base, and a gimp on 3rd base, just to be blunt. And you have a guy who can shine like that when the heat is hottest and the need for a versatile 1B, 2B, 3B type is great? One of the Mets' worst decisions ever.

I think if we kept Murphy, our chances of a 2016 World Series win would have been 50-50. An awful blunder.

Anonymous said...

A Contrarian's Point of View

On Jacob deGrom...

I think the NY Mets are actually playing this situation with Jacob perfectly. The Mets have deGrom signed thru 2020, then he will become a free agent. He is signed thru that time at $17.0 million a season, which is close to being fair. Jacob is definitely worth every cent.

Jacob has two things working against him. He will be 31 years old during this season, and he has had injury type situations before in his career. So no, Jacob is not immune to doctor visitations. But then, who is really?

Jacob deGrom is everything that the NY Mets fans already know he is, plus somethings. Smart, adapts well to game situations, and has that fastball he ramped-up a few years back. In addition, he is well liked and respected by all, and now is a much coveted Cy Young Award winner.

Jacob's current contract status (thru 2020) does buy the Mets some time to assess their current AAA and AA starters, guys who could conceivably assume a top-end rotation spot. But this same duration also simultaneously allows the Mets to assess just how well Jacob deGrom will be able to hold up heading into his free agency season andthen hopefully another contract. These two situations will determine what exactly happens with the Mets and Jacob deGrom.

However too, the Mets "could" theoretically extend Jacob deGrom's contract out now, but wisely no more than two seasons and 2022. But projecting Jacob's success ratio and health beyond age 34 could be a big mistake. You simply have to take into account here that Jacob throws really hard, and like I have said above he has had injuries.

Jacob's next contract is expected to be for 4-6 seasons. But really how many starting pitchers age 35+ are really anything close to what they once were is the problem with a MLB teams to go with younger players mainly because most of the older ones talent level and success ratios tend to fall-off rapidly by this time. It's what we all call "being human" I suppose, and drats to that already. We can all thank Adam and Eve I suppose for that.



Anonymous said...

Silly Me, Trix Are For Kids!

This is the time of year when most teams worry about what their 25-man roster will look like heading from Spring Training and into the regular season. But I don't. It's because nothing now is ever cast in granite and changes can be made after they break camp.

No team is without the questions. Here's mine:

1B When will Peter Alonso get here actually? Mets will need his homeruns.

2B Everyone already knows McNeil is the best second baseman defensively.

SS Amed.

3B Lowrie. Cano or McNeil can play some there as well if needed to.

LF McNeil. Maybe Yo' can get back second half, maybe not. That's fine. I like McNeil playing. He's a catalyst type batter.

CF Nimmo.

RF Conforto. Unless struggles batting.

C Ramos.

SP deGrom, Wheels, Noah.

Forgive me, but I still like the notion of Clay Buchholz. Just "in-case." He had a nice 2018 number-wise.

Worst case scenario here you ask, cringe worthy:

Here goes. One of the top three starters goes down with a serious injury. And one of the four or five starters is pitching badly then as well. Kiss the 2019 season good-bye at this point, which is my only reasoning point being made.

The Mets have no AAA starters you could pencil in right now for this situation (if it even were to occur and hopefully not)and all the Mets fans don't want another season waiting for the next year to arrive. We have waited enough.

Pen:
I have just four slated in right now. Diaz, Familia, Bashlor, and Wilson.

Bench Depth:

OF Broxton INF Lowrie, TJ Riveria (if can), C d'Arnaud

There is "maybe" a possible need I see here with a later inning homerun pinch hitter batter. Maybe Todd, once Peter arrives.

Who is the best reliever with the most potential down at Syracuse right now?

A: Joshua Torres





Tom Brennan said...

Jake extended 2 seasons at $33 million per beyond 2020? He should take that if offered. That would make the next 4 seasons 4/$100 million. It is not Scherzer $$ but Scherzer's timing was better.

Anonymous said...

Fool Hearted

I don't think this will ever happen, especially in this day and age. But I would like it to.

Neither Machado of Harper are made a contract offer. They don't play MLB in 2019.

If you think about it some, contract offers have gotten way out of hand. The Players Union is already moaning and groaning over the late contract offers being made this off season, especially to the best free agent players available.

This isn't 1985 anymore, the players are being offered whole islands and lifetime financial security for their family's next six generations.

Be honest, how much would you care if this happened with Machado and Harper?

The "super sizing" is coming to an end.