Reese Kaplan -- When a Penny Lands on its Edge

Heresy:  dissent or deviation from a dominant theory, opinion, or practice

In Mets lore it’s highly unlikely anyone will surpass the Jason Bay or Bobby Bonilla in the realm of punchline, gut punch or sunk cost.  The pitching equivalent for his duration here had been Jason Vargas for whom people spewed vitriol whenever his name was mentioned, let alone seeing him penciled into the lineup.

When he was signed there was no one rejoicing.  After all, despite his hot start in 2017 when from Opening Day through June 30^th he delivered a 2.22 ERA en route to his first-ever All Star appearance.  

He was seemingly doing it with mirrors for the Royals as he fanned just 74 over more than 100 IP, walked 24 and batters hit .237 off of him. That period of his career was very much an outlier as his career ERA was nearly 2 full runs higher. 

In this Dickensian tale of two halves, Vargas was putrid in once the calendar flipped to July.  Batters were hitting .297 off of him.  He gave up 19 second half homers and his ERA was a devilishly bad 6.66.  He finished the season a 20-game winner, but the ERA was 4.16, about on par with his career mark of 4.25. 

When Sandy Alderson’s front office offered him a two-year deal with a third year option after that precipitous drop off the cliff in the second half, the reactions ranged from head scratching to screaming to frothing at the mouth.  No one liked the deal at all.  When he broke his hand in spring training, not too many people were crying about it.

Vargas seemed to underscore the naysayers’ reaction when he posted a ghastly 5.77 ERA for 2018, his first season in a Mets’ uniform.  There was a slight glimmer of hope at the end of the season when he managed to pitch to a respectable 3.60 ERA over his final ten starts of the year.  Maybe there was hope after all.

Then came 2019.  In the early going his ERA was well north of 10.00!  The fans were readying torches and pitchforks, preparing to storm the stadium if Mickey Callaway handed him the ball in anything other than mop-up duty.  When he went on the DL, even the lowly likes of Wilmer Font, Drew Gagnon, Chris Flexen and Corey Oswalt were an improvement (which isn’t saying much). 

However, something clicked and his recent stretch has people using the word “Ace” in the same sentence as the name Vargas.  In this topsy-turvy development, he stunned pretty much everyone when he just turned in a 7-0 complete game shutout against the Giants.  His ERA over his post-IL stretch is an amazing 1.85 since April 19^th (including some time lost due to injury).  Batters are hitting just .203.  People are no longer cringing, but dare I say looking forward to Vargas starts.

Therein lies the heresy.  

It has always been assumed the Mets would simply pay off their $2 million buyout of his third year option and, to quote J. Peterman on Seinfeld to Elaine Benes, “Kudos, Elaine, on a job…done.”  

However, now you have to think that the $6 million incremental cost for another year of Vargas in a Mets uniform might not be the worst idea in the world (especially with Wheeler's status up in the air).  

There’s a lot of time between now and the end of the season but there’s not a single person who would have even entertained the possibility that picking up his option was on the table.  Who'da thunk it?