Sandy Alderson is not looking too good lately in his hiring
practices. Yes, he and his boss both
announced how disgusted they were by Mickey Callaway (and not just for his
managerial practices). Sandy Alderson
went on to admit his cluelessness when it came to Callaway’s peccadillos. It came, of course, on the heels of his less-than-stellar
background checking on Jared Porter.
Yeah, Sandy seems a bit in over his head on the basics of human
resources.
All of these distractions (along with the Steve Cohen
GameStop fiasco) makes it seem as if the Mets are not paying strict attention
to building a roster. It’s true this
week they did add Jordan Yamamoto from the Marlins who will likely fortify the
Syracuse roster, but they missed out on Nolan Arenado from the Rockies and
nothing one way or the other has been done with Trevor Bauer. There’s no center field solution in place
(nor even in the hot rumor stage) and no one knows how the Mets are filling out
the entire pitching rotation.
So if the season starts on time (as the Player’s Union
wants) then you have to look at the roster as it exists today. There are definitely holes to fill there,
defensive questions abound and pitching remains a question mark. Yes, it was announced that Noah Syndergaard,
in addition to his new book club (he reads?), it was announced he’s ahead of
schedule and due back in May instead of June.
That filled fans with unwarranted enthusiasm and temporary amnesia as
none seem to recall what happens when you rush a player back prematurely from
recovery. Everyone knows Syndergaard
wants to return to the rotation ASAP in order to set the stage for his free
agent year payoff.
Of course, the big question about the DH is not yet fully settled. To hear it, they are bypassing the role for
what is promised to be a more-or-less normal 162 game season. Of course, it could just be a negotiating
tool that will be allowed in exchange for some concession from the Player’s
Union as yet to be determined.
For the Mets, it’s a bit of a quandary with J.D. Davis inappropriate to play defense anywhere and Dom Smith unsuitable for left field. Of course, if Smith makes it to left field regularly, that means Brandon Nimmo is back to his ill-suited role as a center fielder. That means the defense in the outfield other than Michael Conforto is highly suspect.
Fans assume that three quarters of the traditional infield
with Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor is certainly an adequate
double play combo, though not the Gold Glove best. Third base is still an open issue and it currently
seems to be a toss up between potentially solid hitter in Davis or stellar
glove man in Luis Guillorme. They could
also flip flop McNeil who struggled at 3B and move Guillorme into what could be
a Gold Glove DP combo between shortstop and second.
There is some speculation over the backup catcher behind
James McCann. Some figure the job is
Tomas Nido’s to lose since he is out of options and would likely be lost if
they tried to demote him. There are some
other options in the minors, but none close enough to the big leagues to make
you feel any would be appropriate.
Finding a veteran backup is not a bad idea.
In fact, the whole bench is pretty suspect at this
point. Everyone knows Luis Guillorme is
there in some fashion. Outfielders are
definitely a mystery. Another infielder
is needed as well.
No one is jumping for joy at the prospect of starting
pitchers after Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco being named
David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi. That
discomfort is part of the overwhelming desire by many fans to add Trevor Bauer
to take one of those remaining two slots.
To do so, however, would cost about $30 million and with so many other
holes to fill, that sum could cure a lot of problems.
Internally many of us have debated other pitchers still
available to be signed as free agents (without even dipping into the trade
market). Good prospects include Taijuan Walker, Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, Homer Bailey, Rich Hill and many
reclamation projects. Felix Hernandez and
Jake Arrieta would fall into this category.
Then there are fringe pitchers like Gio Gonzales and Mike Leake.
On the bullpen side, signing more starters means you have
(currently, anyway) Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Trevor May, Seth Lugo, Dellin Betances,
Aaron Loup and Brad Brach. It’s not awful
for sure, but it could still be better.
The problem is finding someone to pay the salaries of Familia, Betances
and Brach.
Here’s hoping the rest of this week is better than how it’s
started out for the Mets.
18 comments:
So hard to believe that it is Feb 3 and we don't know if there will be a DH.
Lots of holes to fill - I wonder if at some point soon the Mets tell Bauer it is time to sign or they will retract the offer.
He seems to be the one around which all other decisions will revolve.
Going deep into the post season remains the goal for 2021 - can any choices other than Bauer get the Mets there? I don't want a fall-short 2021.
Defensively, they need a CF, which helps two outfield positions.
The DH will help 1B, sometimes.
I think Marisnick was an astute signing last season, and would be again this year.
If Bradley comes cheap -- 2 years, $7.5 annual -- I could live with the fact he can't hit.
He really can't hit, folks.
And he's a LH bat.
But a great glove out there is appealing.
At same time, Marisnick can play all around and bats RH, comes cheap.
I like Davis at 3B. Leave him there, hope the defense is okay enough. I believe in the bat. Not every position has to be a defensive-plus, especially if we upgrade C, CF, LF, 1B (sometimes). Already solid at SS and RF. It's not terrible.
Nido is backup catcher. That's been the plan all along. It's fine. Continuity and consistency is good for our pitchers. But, yeah, need some kind of capable veteran catcher-bum at AAA.
Desperately need to IMPROVE THE PEN. Sign a real guy like Colome.
Need a 5th starter. There are options. Sandy has gotten way too much lapdog praise for his depth signings. It's normal stuff and there's nobody, right now, who is better than Walter Lockett. There are maybes and hopefuls, that's the nature of this art, but nobody we really want to see on a regular basis. The idea is that one of them becomes R.A. Dickey. Sure, why not!
Guillorme is a nice infield backup piece -- though I suspect Sandy isn't enamored.
Anyway, Sandy is waiting out the market, his old strategies. Most teams are. Can't judge until the painting is finished.
Jimmy
I just looked back at the team that went to the 2015 WS and holy crap they were terrible defensively and for the most part offensively with only YC, Conforto and David when he played that were real pluses. The pitching got us there but really only Harvey, Degrom, Thor and Familia were great the rest were fillers so looking at this years team and knowing their not done yet I'm good with it. We also can feel good knowing they'll do what they have to during the season to add if needed without the money constraints of the Wilponies and agree that Sandy's best option is waiting this out.
Gary, they did have Daniel Murphy, too, in 2015.
But your comments are correct - they had a lot of garbage on that team and it was a miracle they made the playoffs, much less the World Series.
As I recall, just before they got Uribe and Johnson, they had several guys who had to that point of the season accumulated something like 800 at bats and were hitting a combined .180. Worst MLB offense in April-July period and best offense in Aug and Sept.
You only get lucky like that (overcoming so much dreadful talent) once. Lightning won't strike twice there. We need competent major leaguers 1 through 25 or 26.
Jimmy, makes a lot of sense what you propose...if they don't pull the trigger on Bauer.
I wonder how close the trio of Pat Mazeika, Ali Sanchez, and David Rodriguez are to challenging Nido for the back up catcher spot. Nido has the inside track - all he has to do is stop hititng .197.
And yes, the bullpen could use a Colome arm. The bullpen killed this team the last 3 years.
Tom I would still be OK taking this team into the season knowing this FO won't be afraid to spend when nessasary to compete and that's a HUGE plus going forward also Tom does it change our changes to get Bauer now that Callaway will surely be fired and the Angels reenter the Bauer sweepstakes?
Reese is the half empty glass guy here to balance my half full view.
While I agree that they still (most likely) do not have the finished roster yet, the moves they have made have been positive.
- James McCann is a huge upgrade over Wilson Ramos and most likely not a very steep step below J.T. Realmuto. The $75M difference in their contracts will show a very good value signing.
- Trevor May is a very good bullpen signing. I am actually OK with the bullpen as it stands, especially if Lugo is in it.
- Lindor is a massive get.
- Carrasco is a steal in the same trade.
- Stroman was more luck, but I did like the fact that they extended him the Q.O. I doubt he would have been back without that.
- Even some of the smaller depths signings and trades are useful. Aaron Loup could be a good one, if he can replicate last year's success. I think Sam McWilliams is a sleeper as a solid back end of the rotation guy.
- Not trading any of the top 6 or 7 prospects for immediate help is a good thing.
What I would like to see now:
- The DH issue closed - hopefully integrate it into the NL this year.
- I am anxious to see Bauer sign (hopefully with somebody else)
- I would really like to see them sign Bradley to play centerfield. It will take more than 2 yrs/$15M to get it done, but it should be done anyway. I don't think 3 yrs/$36M is an overpay.
- And once we get into the spring, I would really like to see if McNeil is an everyday second baseman.
- Perhaps the biggest need left is a better bench. Guillorme, Nido and who? Peraza? Jose Martinez? I really worry about injuries to key players like McCann and Lindor.
- Maybe a low-risk, high reward contract to a starter - not sure what the market is for Walker or Paxton.
Gary, good point and a good question about Mickey fiasco possibly allowing the Angels to re-enter the Bauer sweepstakes. Hard to imagine Callaway is not toast.
Remember 1969, I heard Keith Hernandez refer to the Lindor/Carrasco trade as a huge steal for the Mets - I agree. I think getting those 2 may have added 10 wins for this team in 2021.
I agree. I think getting a real centerfielder and adding the DH might be another 10 wins.
Remmeber69:
Bradley cannot hit. Have you looked at his numbers? He's likely to hit under .240. So his value is all glove. This is Juan Lagares. He can't even steal bases.
That's not a guy I lock up for 3 years and pay $36 million. It doesn't solve a problem so much as creates a new one.
I'd stopgap this and hope the Mets can find a real solution -- a complete baseball player -- via free agency next year or via trade.
The Astros might settle on Bradley. He's represented by Boras and looking for a payday. Is anyone else competing for him? The Red Sox seem happy to walk away.
I mean, maybe he could work out, get lucky with the bat. But his entire career tells us that he's a .239 hitter with multiple seasons under .240. I'm not spending big money on that, and I'm definitely not getting locked into 3 seasons.
I think in a lot of ways it is just as important to get Smith out of LF as it is to get a real CF. The Mets can solve that in one stroke. Everyone wants the DH, but Manfred is an idiot and makes every issue a battle. MLB is so frustratingly stupid. And lately, the players union is not helping at all.
Jimmy
Bradley is a much better defensive CF than Nimmo, but an inferior offesnive player. My CF solution would be: Get Marisnick and start him against lefties. And use him for late inning defense when not starting.
Bradley may be likely to hit under .240, but seems more likely to hit over .240. In the last 6 years, he has hit under .240 twice, over .240 four times. With his glove and moving Nimmo to left, I will take my centerfielder hitting .245 with 15 to 20 homers and 60 to 70 RBI. He is a good baserunner with a good SB %, even if he does not steal a ton.
If Michael Bourn can get a $40M 4 year deal 8 years ago, JBJ is worth more than that today. JBJ is a better player. Would you take Michael Brantley's $16M annual salary over two years (I don't remember what he got this year off the top of my head), but I would take JBJ over Brantley at that cost any day. JBJ is a very good baseball player - he is not the Mario Mendoza of the outfield. He is the best outfield free agent today or in next year's crop.
Next, we really need to stop this talk of platooning any right handed hitter in the outfield with Nimmo. Nimmo has a career OPS against LH starters of .796. Marisnick a robust .676. Dominic Smith, in a smaller sample size has a career batting average of .279 with an OPS of .847 against lefthanded starters. There is no right handed batter that has been discussed that is worth a platoon.
I am OK with a Marisnick or Almora for defensive substitution, but not as a starting outfielder. JBJ is the only starting centerfielder left on the FA market.
JBJ and TB seem mutually exclusive at this point. We'll see which direction the Mets go in. I doubt they'll sign both. Would they be better with a JBJ and say an Odorizzi or a P/T Marisnick with a Bauer. Time will tell which way they go.
Odorizzi = Matz .. no on him.
JBJ >>>> TB at this point for the completeness of the team. If another pitcher is required, a lower cost, low risk high reward addition like Walker, Folty, or even Paxton are the guys.
But yes, time will tell.. I hope it is soon. I am getting tired of the Bauer saga.
I can see the point about signing Bradley, but I'd want him at team-friendly terms -- willing to pass if the price is too high in years or AAV.
If we agree to throw out numbers from Covid-2020 (191 ABs), we've seen Bradley's BA steadily drop:
2016: .267
2017: .245
2018: .234
2019: .225
Can he turn that around? Maybe! And what if he doesn't? Is he hitting .217 and playing everyday for the Mets? Seems like it's been heading in that direction.
He is clearly better than Juan Lagares. With Juan, we used to have a discussion: At what bottomline OPS is he still worth carrying for the glove? To me, it was somewhere between .700 and .750. If he could do that, contribute a little bit, then the glove was worth it. But when his OPS was .650, nope, the math didn't add up for me. Bradley is still north of .700, thanks to his good walk rate and surprising pop.
His Ks have been climbing, too: 155 in 494 ABs in 2019. Just another troubling red flag.
Last 2 years (including Covid), he attempted 21 SBs and was caught 8 times (13 successful swipes). Statistically, you do that math and conclude that he's now at a point where he's better off not trying to steal at all. It's no longer a weapon -- unless he's using it against his own team to remove baserunners (usually 75-80% success is the cutoff point for having a positive overall value).
At negotiating table, I'd play hardball with this guy.
Springer would have solved this problem neatly. The RH bat, an OPS around .850, and an upgrade in CF for the next 2-3 years. Oh well!
Jimmy
One last consideration if the Mets did Marisnick/Bauer and not JBB/Odorizzi: if Marisnick is not cutting it, who might become available at the trade deadline?
I watched some of the Nets/Clippers game last night. The three elites they now have - Durant, Harden and Irving - were unstoppable against a superior defensive team. For the first time, I saw where the Nets could win a title with those 3.
With Odorizzi, he may be decent, but if he has to pitch against LAD in the playoffs, the bags may be getting packed for the off season. Bradley decent too - but would he win us a title. 35 long years.
Bauer, deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, Thor? Killer rotation for a World Series run. That rotation could well be the Mets' version of Harden, Durant, and Irving.
Bauer is a gamble. So was signing Durant with his Achilles. But Durant is now still elite. The three are hungry. They believe they've got the team to do it.
I don't want to get to the playoffs and perhaps win a round. That feels like Bradley/Odorizzi to me. I would like a World Series crown in 2021. COVID shows one thing: time is not unlimited. Win it in 2021.
Tom, I agree. With the core already on board, it does not seem like a huge stretch to need to wait past 2021 for a World Series. What my concern is an 'all-in' for current year and getting tied up with a lot of money on the books and not being able to build a sustainable team. In real dollars and cents, I don't really know what that means, although my fear is that TB would not only cost a good centerfielder and moving Nimmo to his best position (a two for one), it would also cost an extension of Conforto.
Jimmy, I hear you, but I don't think discounting 2020 is the right thing to do. There is another guy out there that had incredible stats in a COVID shortened year and is looking to go to the bank with $30M+ on that one year alone. If we discount JBJ's fine year, how can one seriously consider Bauer?
I certainly cannot count on JBJ putting up the same number he did last year for then next 3 to 5, but . . he is still the best out there and I want to see the defense.
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