Jeremy Mand: Could Francisco Alvarez be a MLB Super Star?

New York Mets farmhand Francisco Alvarez is a 19 year old catcher and the team’s #1 prospect. Of course being a #1 prospect does not guarantee future success in the big leagues – just look at Amed Rosario’s career to date, or the likes of Lastings Milledge and Fernando Martinez from a decade ago. 

But Alvarez’s performance in his short minor league career raised eyebrows for me by the sheer magnitude of his dominance. 

I went back and compared his performance to all of the recent top catcher prospects of the 2010s. One thing to note is that there have not been a significant number of top catching prospects over the last decade, the most prominent are Gary Sanchez, Travis d’Aranud, Mike Zunino, Jesus Montero; and more recently Adley Rustchman and Joey Bart, and compared Alvarez to them at similar ages and similar levels. The most prominent catchers of the 2010s, if you exclude Buster Posey, has probably been J.T. Realmuto, and he never made a top 100 prospect list. 

       

Player	Year	League	Age	G	K/BB Rate	BA	OPS
Fransico  Alvarez	2021	Low-A	19	15	2.14	.417	.1213
Joey Bart	2019	Low-A	22	57	0.28	.265	.793
Adley Rustchmann	2019	Low-A	21	12	0.67	.154	.594
J.T. Realmuto	2011	Low-A	20	96	0.33	.287	.801
Salvador Perez	2009	Low-A	19	36	0.40	.189	.466
Keilbert Ruiz	2017	Low-A	19	63	0.60	.317	.795
Willson Contreras	2013	Low-A	21	86	0.39	.248	.742
Gary Sanchez	2011	Low-A	18	82	0.38	.256	.820
Travis d’Arnaud	2009	Low-A	20	126	0.55	.255	.738
Jesus Montero	2008	Low A	19	132	0.45	.326	.868

 

Even with a small sample size, Alvarez’s performance is several degrees of magnitude more impressive than any recent catcher prospect, again, albeit with a small sample size. (There are a few catchers, notably Mike Zunino and Yasmani Grandal, who I left out because they started off at a higher level than Alvarez.)

Even more exciting is when you compare his performance to not just catchers, but to the elite hitters in Major League Baseball, also at a similar age and level. 

Player	Year	League	Pos	Age	G	K/BB Rate	BA	OPS
Fransico Alvarez	2021	Low-A	C	19	15	2.14	.417	.1213
Mike Trout	2010	Low-A	OF	18	81	1.25	.362	.979
Juan Soto	2017	Low-A	OF	18	23	0.88	.360	.950
Francisco Lindor	2012	Low-A	SS	18	122	0.78	.257	.707
Christian Yelich	2011	Low-A	OF	19	122	0.54	.312	.871
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2017	Low-A	SS	18	117	0.60	.281	.910
Ronald Acuna	2016	Low-A	OF	18	55	0.64	.312	.821
Mookie Betts	2013	Low-A	OF	20	76	1.45	.296	.923
Bryce Harper	2011	Low-A	OF	18	72	0.72	.318	.977

Alvarez is still far and away above this elite cohort at a similar stage in their careers, with the caveat, again, that it is over a very short sample size. 

But beyond the small sample sizes, there is a reason he is progressing so quickly. First, he is clearly physically developed well above those in his age group, weighing in at over 230 pounds, and he is dominating to the point where any reasonable person would conclude, there is nothing more for him to prove at that level. He led the league in hard hit %, exit velocity, was clearly being pitched around if you notice his walk rate. 

In his debut at High-A Brooklyn he is already scorching balls at exit velocities more typical of Pete Alonso than of a 19-year old single-a catcher. 

Defensively, Alvarez is considered above average, with a strong arm.

So how soon until we see him in Queens? Some in the organization think he can move quickly because of his performance at the plate, but also because of the intangibles he possesses. According to Minor League Director, Jeremy Barnes, Alvarez’ has  “blown [him] way with these intangible parts of the game, that I feel very confident that he’s going to be able to do it and that he’s currently working on it.”

If he weren’t a catcher, one could argue we could expect in the major leagues by next year; after all most of the elite hitters that I compared him to such as Trout, Soto, Acuna were in the major leagues within a year or two of dominating Low-A, and Alvarez is already in High-A in May of 2021.