Today's prospects hope someday to be in a pic just like this
I told a peek as of Thursday, June 3. Here's my brief take:
# 1 FRANCISCO ALVAREZ - the young catching stud torched Full A pitching and got jumped quickly to Full A. I imagine the thundering bat will quickly adjust and thunder some more. (It adjusted yesterday with 2 doubles and a single).
# 2 RONNY MAURICIO - he did miss a year...and he is still quite young for high A ball...but he has 30 Ks and 4 BBs in 20 games. One thing is clear - he is not the next Soto or Acuna - he is perhaps the next Amed Rosario?
# 3 MATT ALLAN - he succumbed to the pitchers' version of COVID - the dreaded TJS. See you in late 2022, and hopefully it will all go well and you'll go right back to being a Mets' top 3 prospect.
# 4 BRET BATY - the young (21) slugger is hitting a robust .369/.476/.595 in Brooklyn (thru Sunday), with "just" 23 Ks in 24 games, and 27 RBIs. After a hot weekend, 4 HRs so far, and "just" 4 is fine - all 4 are on the road, why fight Cyclone Park incoming winds? Keep that high level of bashing up, and a promotion to AA cannot be far away.
# 5 PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG - the Crow got off to a dazzling start, but wounded his wing on a play at 3rd base, and was reportedly in need of shoulder surgery. Whether that actually has yet occurred is information sealed in a lab in Wuhan. Thankfully, it is his non-throwing shoulder, but it is a major setback for a kid who might otherwise have rocketed through the system. I was, pre-injury, wondering if he might move so fast that he'd be the Mets' opening day 2023 CF. I can't see that now.
# 6 J.T. GINN - a successful 3 inning return from TJS this past Thursday. May he make up for lost time quickly.
# 7 KHALIL LEE - highly unimpressive with the bat in spring training and when called up when the Mets had their outfield emergencies. He needs a lot of ABs in AAA to develop and prove he is not overrated. Hitting well back in AAA.
# 8 MARK VIENTOS - a glacially slow start in AA, followed by some improvement. Still young, and he last played 2 levels lower in 2019. Hitting .231 with 6 walks and 31 Ks in 21 games. Time will tell, but he needs to climb from these levels. 40 errors in 184 non-DH games in his career.
# 9 ALEX RAMIREZ - just 18, with a very hopeful profile. May he be our Soto/Acuna. He is 1 for 12 with 7 Ks thru Thursday in his Full A debut, but patience is recommended.
# 10 THOMAS SZAPUCKI - six years older than Alex Ramirez, he had a 2.12 ERA thru Thursday, but had a 1.65 WHIP in his 17 innings. Will he be competent, or will he be dominant, in the bigs? Time will tell. Simple fact is: he is not in the bigs yet. Many guys his age are.
# 11 JUNIOR SANTOS - the 6'7" 19 year old righty has a similar WHIP to Szapucki's (1.67 in St Lucie), but a 7.20 ERA. Not impressing to date. We'll see how he progresses.
# 12 JAYLEN PALMER - 20 year old athletic hitter is 6'4", 210 with no homers in 80 at bats. A high 28 Ks, but an impressive 15 walks give him a .347 OBP. I get the sense that this was a big jump for him, and he will bloom as the year rolls on.
# 13 ROBERT DOMINGUEZ - 19 year old tall righty international signing has yet to throw in a pro game. So I will reserve judgment, other than to say that 19 year old Junior Santos already has 106 pro innings in. Get him out on the mounds - "I love my Mounds".
# 14 FREDDY VALDEZ - this 19 year old has 230 pro at bats under his belt thru 2019, but none in 2021, so he is I imagine deemed not ready for St Lucie-level baseball just yet. Soto and Acuna made their MLB debuts at 19, so the clock keeps moving. *Whoops! Freddy's gone to Red Sox in Khalil Lee deal. No doubt, Red Sox hope he'll be the next Freddy Lynn.*
# 15 SHERVEYN NEWTON - 14 walks in 23 St Lucie games is nice. 50 strikeouts is not. Not a promising stat. Not at # 15.
# 16 SAM MCWILLIAMS - we were all hopeful. Then he didn't pitch well, and then he got DFA'd. Will he ever turn potential into effectiveness? He'll find out with another franchise.
# 17 JOSE BUTTO - the 23 year old has a 0.97 WHIP and a K per inning in High A. Keep it going, Jose.
# 18 RYLEY GILLIAM - when he started his first full season, he was rocking. But he has not pitched at all well in AA and AAA. 12 runs in 7 AA innings this year. He needs to do much better to be a major league caliber reliever.
# 19 CARLOS CORTES - he had a 4 hit, 2 HR night on Thursday in AA. The IF/OF has fanned just 130 times in 198 minor league games. He should be HIGHER on this Mets' top 30 list. No doubt.
# 20 JOSHUA CORNIELLY - the 20 year old 6'2" righty pitched in 2019 and prior, but no pro games this year. Which concerns me. See my comment about Robert Dominguez above. It applies here.
# 21 JORDANY VENTURA - similar for this 20 year old 6'0" righty to what I wrote for Cornielly. Ventura is on the 60 day IL, which is not a good place to be.
# 22 FRANKLYN KILOME - he has to me not been impressive. # 22 sounds about right. If he was impressive, at his age, he'd be in Queens, wouldn't you think?
# 23 TYLOR MEGILL - grossly underrated fireballer. We'll see how AAA goes, but he might well be a top 5 prospect. Nice first AAA outing Friday night, outdueling Nate Pearson.
# 24 TRAVIS BLANKENHORN - wow, he got on the list fast. He has decent minor league numbers, but my guess is Carlos Cortes is better. Prove me wrong, Travis.
# 25 OSCAR DE LA CRUZ - 6'6", 250, 26 years old. Terrible start to 2021 - and that is an understatement. He needs to write the rest of this - up to you, Oscar.
# 26 MARCEL RENTERIA - 5'11" pitcher, also 26. 17 Ks in 11 innings in AA and AAA this year. We'll see. He'll need to show he can dominate AAA.
# 27 MICHEL OTANEZ - 23 year old hurler - 14 Ks in 7 Brooklyn innings, but tons of baserunners. I dunno...
# 28 YENNSY DIAZ - 24 year old hurler - 2 scoreless innings for the Mets and 6 nice innings for Syracuse - we'll have to keep an eye on two guys named Diaz, not just Edwin.
# 29 JOANDER SUAREZ - high ERA, high WHIP so far in 2021. 'Nuf said.
# 30 DAISON ACOSTA - injured 60 day - no pitching in 2021. 'Nuf said.
Overall, a few diamonds here, but the rest of the list? Far from inspiring.
BACK TO THE PRESENT - LET'S KICK SOME ORIOLE BUTT.
4 comments:
Tom - MLB has Jake Mangum and Adrian Hernandez on the list now that Feddy Valdez and Sam McWilliams are off.
Blankenhorn had 19 HRs in the minors in 2019 which is why he is on the list.
Good to see Mangum in the Top 30 - when he was drafted he felt like he should quickly become a Top 30 guy with his hitting ability and speed. After his 1-12 start to the season, he is hitting a little over .300 since. That's what gets you to the big show.
" # 2 RONNY MAURICIO - he did miss a year...and he is still quite young for high A ball...but he has 30 Ks and 4 BBs in 20 games. One thing is clear - he is not the next Soto or Acuna - he is perhaps the next Amed Rosario? "
Mauricio is plagued by "Mets prospect disease" where his BB rate continues to be very poor season after season in the system, and until the organization gets away from Alderson's influence, imperatives, and shortcomings, that's unlikely to change. Mauricio, again, is right around 1 BB per 20 PA and since he doesn't hit for average this severely limits his upside.
Deal him now in a package for a real, multiyear upgrade at SP or CF. Since a wild card slot is unlikely, the Mets need to take dead aim at winning the division. Then, especially if Carrasco and Syndergaard are back and reasonably fresh, the Mets behind deGrom have a rare shot at the World Series.
The window closes in 2023 and 2024--the time to move is now.
Jack Strawb - I noted exactly what you are getting at with Ronny Mo. I am concerned about the Ks. If it is due to changing his swing for more "long ball", I would instead do it like McNeil - stay true to your hitting style, and let growth in body mass add the power. McNeil was 160 or so when drafted - now he is around 195 - so he generates more power. But, until 2018, McNeil never hit for power, when he was returning from injury and had added over 20 pounds of beef to the frame.
Jeff's K rate in the minors was a little less than 1 every 2 games. And (forgetting the IL for a minute) look at what he has achieved. Low K rate = more contact. More contact = more hits. More hits = higher average. Higher average = ownership's smiles.
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