Tom Brennan - METS' MINORS - OUTLIERS, FIRE-CATCHERS, AND SIGNIFICANT INDICATORS

When trying to make sense of minor league players' stats, especially pitchers, I consider not just their season stats overall, but I view them through the lens of three categories:

1) Outliers - for instance, did a relief guy have just one or two bad outings that distort his stats.  Drop those outliers out and see how he looks.  Maybe a whole lot better.

2) Fire-Catchers - some guys started stone cold this year, understandable without any games in 2020, but have heated up as the season progresses.

3) Significant Indicators - say, for a guy who has done well in some respects, but has a red flag or two.

For instance, regarding the latter category, Jared Eickhoff is 5-0 for a struggling Syracuse Mets squad - kudos to him - but he has allowed 9 HRs in 40 innings, which is a red flag.  If you can't keep AAA guys in the park, what's gonna happen facing big leaguers?  But....5-0 means you are doing some things right.

Tom Szapucki could have some category 2 and 3 stuff going on.  Lots of rust after minimal use in his career to date, coupled with a challenging AAA assignment.    He has a very nice 2.05 ERA in 2021 over 22 innings, but a somewhat high 1.41 WHIP.  Getting the latter number down will be a big sign he is ready for the big time.  And it went up in his shaky start on Wednesday.  Unless they feel David Peterson needs to swap places with Szapucki right now, Tom still needs to do more work to be terrific.

Tylor Megill has been in outlier mode of sorts, in this respect: he walked 3 in the first inning of his AA opener this year, likely a combination of nerves and a very tight strike zone.  In his recent AAA debut, 2 walks in the first inning.  In his other 28 innings, though, 4 walks.  46 Ks in 30 IP?  Now THAT'S a key indicator. Also, he has given up more earned runs in the 5th and 6th innings, showing an area he needs to improve on to be a successful MLB starter.

Another outlier category guy is Brian Metoyer, the Cyclones reliever.  He had, through Sunday, one bad outing that had his ERA at 4.85 - take that one out and the 40th rounder's numbers are close to outstanding: 12 innings, 3 walks, 6 hits, 14 Ks, 3 earned runs.

His fellow teammate, imposing fireballer Bryce Montes de Oca, has done very well in relief this year, with a 1.59 ERA and 15 Ks in 11.1 IP - but he has walked 9 and will need to refine the control to move higher quickly.

A fire catcher is Khalil Lee - he was not ready to hit major league pitching, but upon his demotion to AAA, my guess is he learned more what it was going to take to be a major leaguer.  8 for his first 20 ABs since returning to Syracuse, with 8 walks and reduced strikeouts, tells me that.

Another fire-catcher is 2018 3rd rounder Carlos Cortes.  The OF/2B got off to a slow start like everyone else in Binghamton, going 5 for 25 with 2 doubles to start the season.  Since then, however, highly impressive, with 11 doubles and 5 HRs, while going 25 for his last 82.  He's scored 23 runs in 27 games for a runs-challenged team. And he does not fan a lot.   The 23 year old is doing all the right things, and it seems the only direction for him is up, unlike former 2nd round bust pick Desmond Lindsay, who was flashing red indicators (like 33 Ks in 58 at bats) and was just released.  

David Thompson in AAA got off to a miserable start, hitting just .196 as of May 21, then got much hotter, going 16 for 51 (.315), with 3 doubles and 4 HRs.   Strikeouts are a bit high, but his cold start may have prevented him from being considered as a JD Davis injury replacement.  He is also, seemingly, a better 1B from a fielding % standpoint, than a 3B.  Career .994 at 1B, but .943 at 3B.  But the Mets are pretty stocked at 1B, pretty much everyone would agree.

Lastly, there are tons of guys red-flagging it, as they are striking out at a very high rate in the Mets' minors.  It may be part of the Mets' changed philosophy of pushing guys higher and faster.  Some will fail, others will adjust and accelerate to reach their true potential faster.

That last paragraph is a key indicator that this article is finished.  But it is not.

The Mets got payback for the 10-3 loss to the O's on Monday night with a badly needed crusher, winning 14-1 against Matt Harvey and Co.  McKinney and Pillar two homers apiece, 16 hits in all - sweet.  Harvey's MLB leash may have just snapped, as he has been terrible in his last several starts.  Guillorme soon to come back, McNeil soon thereafter?  The offense is getting into a clearly higher high gear.

Have a great day.  May things catch fire for you but, of course, in only the very best of ways.