Tom Brennan - STEVE COHEN, MOVING THE CITIFIELD FENCES IN ONE MORE TIME WOULD BE A GREAT INVESTMENT

OPEN LETTER TO STEVE COHEN.

STEVE, YOU HAVE OFTEN SAID YOU ARE OPEN TO IDEAS.

THIS IS THE LETTER YOU WILL TRULY WANT TO READ TO SIMPLY AND DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE THIS FRANCHISE.  

PLEASE DO SO.

Here I go again about the Citifield fences being too deep. 

Yeah, I'll be the pest, the outlier.  

Even if the facts support me.  Some don't like change, even if it means failure.

But please, Steve, bear with me.  You'll want to read this.

FENCES MATTER.  HITTERS LIKE CLOSER-IN FENCES, AND HATE FURTHER-OUT FENCES.

When the Mets and Wilpons built the original Citifield, the dimensions were outlandishly high and deep.  I've yet to find anyone not named Fred or Jeff who thought the doubly dumb and deep dimensions were a good idea.

So much so, the Mets' home run leader for that year hit 12.  Not a typo. 

JASON BAY was paid a fortune, but kept hitting warning track flies, not the HRs he was paid so handsomely to hit.  

Face of the franchise David Wright's HRs at Shea over the 396 sign in right center in 2008 and prior became 410 foot outs in 2009's Citifield.

I (and others) wrote that the absurd fences should be moved in.

Moved way in - and lowered too.

And moved in they were, after the 2010 off season.

When I saw how little they were moved in, however, I was aghast.  I wrote a few impassioned articles about it (see Appendix below, please).  

For me, it was personal.  You see, I hate to see the Mets fail.

Some fans love the Mets whether they hit like mad, or hardly hit at all.

Not me.

The BIG park was crushing Mets hitters and causing the Mets to fail.

So, in the off season of 2014, the Mets moved them in again.  Again, not as much as I really wanted, but the two moves collectively would obviously help - the questions were: 

"How much?" And "was it enough?"

Well, the team has played 5 full years (2015-19) and through July 30, the equivalent of a full season's worth of games in 2020 and 2021 so far.  Six full season-equivalents.

I'll keep this simple.  

You know as a fan what I am about to say is a truism:

There is for almost every team a home field advantage.  

Teams almost always hit better at home than on the road, and overall, teams win more home games than road games.

It turns out that, even having moved the fences in twice, the park was still a huge obstacle for Mets hitters.

In fact, Jeff McNeil said as much (nicely) in the post-game of a second game of a doubleheader vs. the Braves this week. 

He was asked if he thought his drive to the base of the centerfield fence at the 408 mark was gone when he hit it.  He said no - adding it is a hard park to hit in, and adding that his buddy Pete Alonso's drive to right center that was caught at the fence was another example.

That triggered my current analysis...i,e,. what have hitters done at home over the equivalent of 6 full seasons 2015-21) since the second fence move-in?  

When I saw the 2015-21 results, I was frankly stunned and disturbed.  

Here are the average full season results:

ON THE ROAD:

.259, 108 HRs, 397 runs.

AT HOME (NOT SO) SWEET HOME:

.237, 97 HRs, 324 runs.

DRASTICALLY WORSE AT HOME!  

That is over 6 full season-equivalents, so it is no fluke.  

It's real.  And it's ugly.

The Mets scored so much fewer runs at home that, at their yearly pace over the 6 years, it would take an entire 7th home season also to catch up to the 6 road season totals.

If you asked some smart fan if an unnamed team averages .259, 108 HRs, and 397 runs on the road, what they might have hit at home, I think that reasonable person might guess .265, 115 HRs, 425 runs, working in a bit of a home field advantage.

But, instead, the Mets averaged a drastically lower .237, 97 HRs, and 324 runs.  Almost a full run less per game than on the road.

Which explains, for instance, why Jake deGrom so often failed to win due to lack of run support.  And why Marcus Stroman has pitched well, but is 7-10 as I write this.

Which has to make the team's hitters (like Conforto) feel like failures a lot, and puts more pressure on the pen and other starters to over-compensate.  No margin for error at home.  Make that one run count.  Blow your arm out trying.

The last time I checked, over multiple seasons, the Mets had won the almost identical number of road games as the Yanks, but had won MANY LESS HOME GAMES than the Yanks.

The smart Yanks planned to have a clear home field advantage - the Mets, however, have had NO home field win advantage.

So, the park in Queens does two things:

1) Suppresses home win totals, perhaps (I am guessing) by 5 wins a year.

2) Suppresses Mets' hitters' offense - players get booed by fans, players press, and really good free agent players often (I'm sure) don't have the Mets as a top choice.

The park is essentially the Mets' hitters' enemy.  Not so much for the visitors - they only get to face the park 3 to 9 times a season, but the Mets' hitters have to struggle with it for 81 games.

Why does it happen?  I think two reasons:

1) Dimensions are still slightly deep.

2) The ball often does not carry as well there as elsewhere.

My gut feeling as to a simple solution?

MOVE ALL FENCES IN BY 5 FEET, EXCEPT IN CENTER.

IN CENTER, I WOULD MOVE THEM IN FROM 408 FEET TO 400 FEET AND, INSTEAD OF THE FENCE GOING STRAIGHT ACROSS IN DEAD CENTER, CURVE IT (SHORTENING IT A BIT MORE).

Cost of the fix?  Cheap,  A few $ million, and that (unlike a pricey free agent) doesn't impact the salary cap.

Little changes like that I truly believe should (and would) make a big difference.  

Let's say, for example, that instead of 10 particularly deep, barely-staying-in-the-park Citifield fly outs over 81 home games, Pete Alonso instead gets 5 more HRs and 5 more doubles in those ABs, and is up 250 ABs at home and 500 ABs road and home.  

His average would be 20 points higher and his slugging numbers would be increased.  He would feel better and more relaxed hitting, say, .280 rather than .260, and perhaps he wins a HR title he otherwise finishes 3rd in.  

Good Pete vibes.  Happy Warrior.  Fans love it, because they love happy, successful Pete.  Just think 2019.

Other Mets' hitters would similarly benefit.  As their numbers climb higher overall, they feel less pressure, and get less criticism.  They succeed a little more, fail a little less. Smile a lot more.

Collectively, they'd hit better synergistically as a group.

And happier hitters will likely win the Mets more home games.

What does better hitting and more wins at home mean?

1) More fans in attendance (higher franchise value)

2) More happy fans

3) More years in the playoffs

4) Less fan criticism of the franchise

That's my advice.  

I would run out and do it this off season, Mr. Cohen, if I were you.

Recently, in a game in Cincinnati, the Mets hit 3 fairly short homers.  Made those hitters feel mighty good, no doubt.

Look at the video for those...if those same balls were hit in Citifield, I believe all three would have either been doubles, or caught.  

Deflating stuff.

Do it, Mr. Cohen.  I feel sure I am right.  Ask Pete, ask Jeff.  

The average yearly slash numbers, you see, back me up.  

It's the right thing to do.  Huge ROI.

APPENDIX

PRIOR FENCE ARTICLES BY THIS AUTHOR

SEPT. 2014:

COME TO YOUR SENSES! MOVE IN THOSE FENCES! By Tom Brennan

Hello to those who care greatly about our Mets!  Well, they're really Wilpons' Mets, but let's not quibble over minor details.

Several days ago, I emphatically stated my case for significantly shortened Citi fences.  Why was I emphatic?  Because I don't trust ownership to get it right, again.  Two tries so far, two failures.  

Here are a few of my key reasons for significant fence shortening:

1. Drastically fewer runs at home than on the road (almost 1 per game) since the fences were sort of, kind of moved in back in 2011.  Moved in a little bit. A tad. A smidgeon.  A self-induced run-scoring deficit that, unlike the one in Washington, must be solved!

2. Players frustrated, confounded, and yes, even tortured, by overly spacious, out-generating dimensions.

3. Fans longing for a few drops of water on a parched tongue, otherwise known as more long balls being deposited on the fans' side of the outfield walls, making the Apple rise along with the deliriously happy fans themselves (from their seats).  Even Sandy said as much, in Sandy-speak, the other day.

4. Deliriously happy fans become repeat attenders at Citi ball games.  Repeat spenders spend $$ that makes the Wilpons richer...and more likely to write big checks.

5. The wind blows in off the bay across the currently spacious expanses, and that and the heavy close-to-water air slows the flight of baseballs almost as if little disk brakes were attached to them.

6.  Think big. When, with shortened fences, Duda hits 45, Wright, Grandy and d'Arnaud hit 30 each, Dilson and Wilmer drop 20 apiece, and even Juan Lagares hits double digits, THEY will be happy.  We want them to be happy.  And Conforto and Nimmo, too, once they get here.

7. The pitchers will pout a bit - but will adjust, as superior pitchers do, and smile when they win more games due to support from their happy hitters.

So last week, I proposed fence dimension changes as follows below:

Field size	Current	Brennan Proposal	Shorter By
Left field Left center Deep left center Center field Deep right center Right center Right field	335 feet  358 feet  385 feet  408 feet  398 feet  375 feet  330 feet	325 feet  358 feet  378 feet  400 feet  398 feet  358 feet  325 feet	10 feet 0 feet 7 feet 8 feet 20 feet 17 feet 5 feet

But very few readers chimed in - I know there are those among you who love those close 2-1 losses, and doubles up the gap as your excitement for the day, but not me.  And not many others either.  

I think this is a unique opportunity to urge management to do it right the third time, after ridiculous dimensions when the stadium was built only being partially fixed in 2011.  

So I am urging you to take the opportunity to weigh in. The happiness of future Met fan generations may be in your hands today. You don't need to register to vote, nor show your voter ID, but on this great issue of our time, outfield border security, this is the time to make your voices heard!  We need to let more baseballs escape past our outfield borders and into the seats!

Whaddya think?  Mets management reads Macks’ blog, no doubt, as it is a serious man’s blog.  So chime in please.

And for the heck of it (except for the chart I already included above), here is last week’s article, if you missed it and should you care to read on for more particulars.

 (Prior article) Lets REALLY Bring Those Fences In by Tom Brennan

Are the field dimensions at Citifield too deep?  Sarah Palin was asked and answered with a resounding “YOU BETCHA!”

As noted in Wikipedia:

During its first three seasons, the large field dimensions caused Citi Field to play as an extreme "pitcher's park", and home-runs at the stadium were among the fewest in the Major Leagues. Mets' general manager Sandy Alderson changed Citi Field's dimensions in time for the 2012 MLB season in order to make it more friendly to hitters.^[20] Changes include building an 8 feet (2.4 m) wall in front of the high 16 feet (4.9 m) wall in left field that many had dubbed the "Great Wall of Flushing", removing the nook in the "Mo's Zone" in right field, and reducing the distance in right center field from (a ridiculous) 415 feet from home plate to (a still too deep) 398 feet.  (Brennan commentary)

So, all in all, the first cut of dimensions for this park was simply poor decision making, for two reasons. First, the sheer depth damaged the hitters.  Don’t believe me, just as Jeff Francoeur or Jason Bay.  One of my favorite recollections back then was in a subway series game, A Rod crushed a ball to the left of dead center.  It caught the top end of the Great Wall of Flushing and ricocheted into play for a ground double.  

The camera panned to A Rod who was laughing and shaking his head in disbelief, surely thinking “I hit the ball THAT hard and THAT far and it was just a double.  Thank God I don’t play here!”  Murphy led the team that year with 12 homers in 508 at bats, and Wright had 10 in 535 at bats.  Excruciating.  Fans stayed home and played tiddlywinks for fun.

I finally got fed up wrote a letter to Met ownership (I think late in 2010) indicating that if Jimmy McMillan (who ran for Governor in 2010 indicating the “rent is too d--n high”) were to be asked his opinion about the original Citi fence dimensions, he’d have said they were “too d—n high and too d—n deep.”  

I strongly urged changes as a REVENUE INCREASING common sense move.  I also said that they were killing any chances a hometown hero with a real shot at the Hall of Fame being denied that shot by their moving from pitcher-friendly Shea to ridiculously hitter-unfriendly Citi.  Did they read it?  Dunno.  But they did change them.  

When I heard, after the 2011 season, that they were bringing the fences in, I was elated.  When I heard what they were bringing them in to, I was deflated.  They just did not get it!  I wrote them again.  But 2012, 2013, and 2014 had to be suffered through to get them to again realize it is not smart to neutralize the hero’s power (Wright) or to invest 4 years and $60MM in power hitters and have them hit long fly ball outs (Bay, Granderson).

So now they get another chance.  Before making that decision to again move the fences in, one must realize that THIS is the time to get it right – move them in for good, so do it right.

So how are the shorter dimensions of 2012, 2013, and 2014 treating our boys? Do they, like the rest of baseball, hit somewhat better at home than on the road.  

NO!!!!!  In fact, the home results, as compared to the road results, are miserable, as seen in the table below, which shows their rank amongst the majors’ 30 teams.  

Obvious solution conclusions?  

1) Move the fences in again. 

2) Move them in a LOT!

YEAR	PLACE	RUNS	RANK	HR’S	RANK	AVG.	RANK
2012	HOME	287	29	67	21	.242	25
2012	AWAY	363	9	72	20	.256	9
2013	HOME	268	30	59	26	.219	30
2013	AWAY	351	12	71	19	.254	14
2014	HOME	249	29	51	23	.223	30
2014	AWAY	315	8	62	15	.250	12

Note: 2014 thru September 10, 2014.

Those are staggering differentials.  They have scored 225 less runs at home over the past 3 years (almost a run per game!), while the league on average scores more at home.  They hit on average 25 points lower…and average about 10 less homers per year at home than on the road.

I attribute 3 reasons: a) depth of fences b) ball does not carry well many games during the year c) field dimensions and poor ball carry gets in the hitters’ heads.

Solution?  Move the fences in – a lot – more doubles, more homers, more hitting confidence, more fan fun.

Here are my suggestions to do it right.  Met management, please read!

(SEE PROPOSED DIMENSIONS CHART IN ARTICLE ABOVE)

I think, because of the fact that the ball does not carry well, that these are not “bandbox” dimensions, but merely slightly hitter friendly ones.  Be fair to your hitters.

And…the pitchers will be hurt by this, but they will 1) adjust and 2) win more games, so why complain?

MANAGEMENT….PLEASE….DO….IT….RIGHT….THIS….TIME!!!!

I have to add this – I seems to be more exorcised over this than David Wright.  David, please be the Captain and speak up.  It’s your career, and these dimensions have hurt you and the team.   We want the team to hit, including you, and hope you’ll get the Hall of Fame.  We want the team to win and this will help.

If you speak up loudly, assuming you have not done so previously, it's years late in coming, but there may still be time to boost your #’s.

I speak as a life-long since 1962 Met fan who is sick and tired of seeing the Yanks hit so many more homers than the Mets almost every year, and who is sick of anemic club hitting records like 41 homers in a season.  Bring the fences in RIGHT and let Duda take a crack at that record next year!