Tom Brennan - Mets' Historical First Round Picks - a Recap

Low draft grades can really muck things up over time.

Mack this year took us on a long, fun journey through "the draftables".

Lots of weeds - he brought his Mack Ultra Weed Whacker in numerous articles to clear away the debris.

Then the Mets turned speculation into reality - they drafted 22 guys in 20 rounds.

Now, we'll see how those draftees do, once they have put ink to paper.

Before I do, we all know first rounders sometimes fail, and so I wanted to look again at my favorite 2022 underdog Mets prospect: 

Wyatt Young. 

The 2021 15th rounder played in the Florida Complex Rookie League in 2021 and hit .370 in under 100 at bats.  Usually, that means, "hello, St Lucie."  Jump one level. Instead he has spent virtually his whole first full season first in AAA (a jump of FOUR levels and the only guy hitting there in April) and then got bumped down to AA.  

He struggled in AA a bit for a few stretches, but now has a 12 game hit streak, and in the last 11 games, has 17 hits and 10 walks!!!!  On base 27 times in 11 games! Doing what no one else does (going from rookie Complex ball straight to the high minors), he has hit an utterly commendable .273/.358/.377 in 86 AA and AAA games.  Little guy has 4 HRs, 3 of those in the past 4 weeks. Defensively, the little guy has just 3 errors at 2B and 7 at SS.  "Just" 67 Ks in 374 plate appearances.  Wow.  Wyatt seems like a great utility player in development. Honestly, 27 times in 11 games? Sounds like he could survive in the majors right now.

But back to first rounders - how did first rounders from 1965 through 2022 rate, you ask me (well, I know you did not ask me, but I will tell you anyway).  

I took into account in my subjective rankings where the guy fell in round 1 - so, if a Paul Wilson was first overall, and Anthony Kay was 31st overall, and they performed the same, Wilson would get a worse grade.

First, a ranking by my assigned grade.  Lots and lots of low scores.  

Drafting can be a crap shoot, but shoot, there's a lot of crap here.  

F's?  I count 22 of them.

D+, D, D-?  I count 9 of them.

So more than half the Mets' first round picks were Ds and Fs.

Nine more in the C category, so 40 were C or lower, and fewer than 20 were As or Bs.  

You really want your long-term scorecard to read the opposite.

Thoughts?

SEASON	PLAYER	POS	PICK	GRADE
1982	Dwight Gooden	RHP	5	A++	Should have been a HOF
2022	Parada	C	11	A+	I’ll give him an A+ and let him earn it.
2022 2020	Jett Williams Crow	IF CF	14 19	A A	I am hoping he is a Crow equivalent. Think he’ll be great; time will tell.
1967	Jon Matlack	LHP	4	A	Great pitcher for a lousy hitting team
1980	Darryl Strawberry	OF	1	A	Should have been an A++
1978	Hubie Brooks	SS	3	A	Fine, fine hitter
2002	Scott Kazmir	LHP	15	A-	108 game winner; none with the Mets.
1990	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	17	A-	315 HR, 981 RBIs for #17? Yes.
1973	Lee Mazzilli	OF	14	A-	Lee had a very good, long career
2011	Brandon Nimmo	RF	13	A-	A surprisingly good pick
1985	Gregg Jefferies	SS	20	A-	Considered an A, but his defense not good.
1992	Preston Wilson	SS-OF	9	A-	Very solid career: 141 and 121 RBI seasons.
2017	David Peterson	LHP	20	B+	So far so good for an overall # 20
1977	Wally Backman	SS	16	B+	Great against righties, tough, no power
2019	Brett Baty	3B	12	B	His recent hitting in AA gives hope.
2010	Matt Harvey	RHP	7	B	Great pick – until he got hurt. 2.5 fine years.
2014	Michael Conforto	OF	10	B-	Did enough to squeeze him into a B-.
1994	Terrence Long	1B	20	C	Decent for a 20th overall pick. No NYM.
1998	Jason Tyner	CF	21	C	Powerless .275 utility hitter with speed.
2001	Aaron Heilman	RHP	18	C	Modest career, not a bad pick for # 18
1968	Tim Foli	SS	1	C	A solid, long career, but not #1 overall caliber
2013	Dominic Smith	1B	11	C-	Not yet as good as Milledge. .246/.308/.424.
2008	Ike Davis	1B	18	C-	A few promising stretches, but a failure.
2005	Michael Pelfrey	RHP	9	C-	Workhorse, but you want more out of # 9
1979	Tim Leary	RHP	2	C-	Injury prevented him from being more.
2008	Reese Havens	SS	22	C-	Could have been a fine player, but injuries.
2003	Lastings Milledge	OF	12	C-	Should have been better. .269/.338/.395.
1987	Chris Donnels	3B	24	D+	910 career PAs, .233. Hit .195 with NYM.
2016	Justin Dunn	RHP	19	D+	Hurt.  So far, 5-4, 3.94 ERA. NO NYM.
1983	Eddie Williams	3B	4	D	Career .252 in 1,281 PAs, none with NYM.
1980	John Gibbons	C	24	D	50 career Abs, .220
2016	Anthony Kay	LHP	31	D	Fizzled – in minors currently.
2004	Philip Humber	RHP	3	D	Perfect game, bum arm, lousy.
2000	Billy Traber	LHP	16	D-	12-14, 5.65.  No NYM.
1983	Stan Jefferson	OF	20	D-	Career .216 in 920 PAs, 27 with NYM.
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	1	D-	Injured pitcher.  40-48, 4.86 for a #1 overall.
1971	Rich Puig	2B	14	F	Rich Who?  11 career PAs, and he walked 1X.
1989	Alan Zinter	C	24	F	.167 in 84 career PAs, none with NYM.
1975	Butch Benton	C	6	F	Butch who? .162 in 89 career Abs
1972	Richard Bengston	C	13	F	Richard who?
1966	Steve Chilcott	C	1	F	Injured catcher
1997	Geoff Goetz	LHP	6	F	Minor league pitcher who did not pitch much.
1965	Les Rohr	LHP	2	F	Injured pitcher
1996	Robert Stratton	OF	13	F	Career minor leaguer.
1991	Alfred Shirley	OF	18	F	Never draft a guy named Alfred, OK, Shirley?
1986	Lee May	OF	21	F	Wrong Lee May.
1984	Shawn Abner	OF	1	F	Abner Doubleday did not like that pick.
1981	Terry Blocker	OF	4	F	Great name for a FB player; lousy BB player
1980	Billy Beane	OF	23	F	Good GM
1992	Christopher Roberts	OF-LH	18	F	Never mde it out of the minors.
1976	Tom Thurberg	OF-RH	13	F	Tom who? Never made it out of the minors.
1993	Kirk Presley	RHP	8	F	Terrible pick, uh huh, uh huh.
1988	Dave Proctor	RHP	21	F	Proctor was a Gamble – that failed.
1974	Cliff Speck	RHP	17	F	Cliff who? 2-1, 4.13, 28 innings with Atl.
1969	Randy Sterling	RHP	4	F	Randy who?
2012	Gavin Cecchini	SS	12	F	Bust.
1995	Ryan Jaroncyk	SS	18	F	Lousy minor leaguer. Lousy pick.
1970	George Ambrow	SS	23	F	George who?
2018	Jarred Kelenic	OF	6	Inc.	Jury is out. So far, not so good. Got us Edwin.
2021	Kumar	RHP	10	Inc.	Re-drafted in 2022 by Texas.

 And now, by year:

SEASON	PLAYER	POS	PICK	GRADE
2022	Parada	C	11	A+	I’ll give him an A+ and let him earn it.
2022 2021	Jett Williams Kumar	IF RHP	14 10	A Inc.	I am hoping he is a Crow equivalent. Re-drafted in 2022 by Texas.
2020	Crow	CF	19	A	Think he’ll be great; time will tell.
2019	Brett Baty	3B	12	B	His recent hitting in AA gives hope.
2018	Jarred Kelenic	OF	6	Inc.	Jury is out. So far, not so good. Got us Edwin.
2017	David Peterson	LHP	20	B+	So far so good for an overall # 20
2016	Anthony Kay	LHP	31	D	Fizzled – in minors currently.
2016	Justin Dunn	RHP	19	D+	Hurt.  So far, 5-4, 3.94 ERA.
2014	Michael Conforto	OF	10	B-	Did enough to squeeze him into a B-.
2013	Dominic Smith	1B	11	C-	Not yet as good as Milledge. .246/.308/.424.
2012	Gavin Cecchini	SS	12	F	Bust.
2011	Brandon Nimmo	RF	13	A-	A surprisingly good pick
2010	Matt Harvey	RHP	7	B	Great pick – until he got hurt. 2.5 fine years.
2008	Reese Havens	SS	22	C-	Could have been a fine player, but injuries.
2008	Ike Davis	1B	18	C-	A few promising stretches, but a failure.
2005	Michael Pelfrey	RHP	9	C-	Workhorse, but you want more out of # 9
2004	Philip Humber	RHP	3	D	Perfect game, bum arm, lousy.
2003	Lastings Milledge	OF	12	D+	Should have been better. .269/.338/.395.
2002	Scott Kazmir	LHP	15	A-	108 game winner; none with the Mets.
2001	Aaron Heilman	RHP	18	C	Modest career, not a bad pick for # 18
2000	Billy Traber	LHP	16	D-	12-14, 5.65.  No NYM.
1998	Jason Tyner	CF	21	C	Powerless .275 utility hitter with speed.
1997	Geoff Goetz	LHP	6	F	Minor league pitcher who did not pitch much.
1996	Robert Stratton	OF	13	F	Career minor leaguer.
1995	Ryan Jaroncyk	SS	18	F	Lousy minor leaguer. Lousy pick.
1994	Terrence Long	1B	20	C	Decent for a 20th overall pick. No NYM.
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	1	D-	Injured pitcher.  40-48, 4.86 for a #1 overall.
1993	Kirk Presley	RHP	8	F	Terrible pick, uh huh, uh huh.
1992	Christopher Roberts	OF-LH	18	F	Never mde it out of the minors.
1992	Preston Wilson	SS-OF	9	A-	Very solid career: 141 and 121 RBI seasons.
1991	Alfred Shirley	OF	18	F	Never draft a guy named Alfred, OK, Shirley?
1990	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	17	A-	315 HR, 981 RBIs for #17? Yes.
1989	Alan Zinter	C	24	F	.167 in 84 career PAs, none with NYM.
1988	Dave Proctor	RHP	21	F	Proctor was a Gamble – that failed.
1987	Chris Donnels	3B	24	D+	910 career PAs, .233. Hit .195 with NYM.
1986	Lee May	OF	21	F	Wrong Lee May.
1985	Gregg Jefferies	SS	20	A-	Considered an A, but his defense not good.
1984	Shawn Abner	OF	1	F	Abner Doubleday did not like that pick.
1983	Stan Jefferson	OF	20	D-	Career .216 in 920 PAs, 27 with NYM.
1983	Eddie Williams	3B	4	D	Career .252 in 1,281 PAs, none with NYM.
1982	Dwight Gooden	RHP	5	A++	Should have been a HOF
1981	Terry Blocker	OF	4	F	Great name for a FB player; lousy BB player
1980	John Gibbons	C	24	D	50 career Abs, .220
1980	Billy Beane	OF	23	F	Good GM
1980	Darryl Strawberry	OF	1	A	Should have been an A++
1979	Tim Leary	RHP	2	C-	Injury prevented him from being more.
1978	Hubie Brooks	SS	3	A	Fine, fine hitter
1977	Wally Backman	SS	16	B+	Great against righties, tough, no power
1976	Tom Thurberg	OF-RH	13	F	Tom who? Never made it out of the minors.
1975	Butch Benton	C	6	F	Butch who? .162 in 89 career Abs
1974	Cliff Speck	RHP	17	F	Cliff who? 2-1, 4.13, 28 innings with Atl.
1973	Lee Mazzilli	OF	14	A-	Lee had a very good, long career
1972	Richard Bengston	C	13	F	Richard who?
1971	Rich Puig	2B	14	F	Rich Who?  11 career PAs, and he walked 1X.
1970	George Ambrow	SS	23	F	George who?
1969	Randy Sterling	RHP	4	F	Randy who?
1968	Tim Foli	SS	1	C	A solid, long career, but not #1 overall caliber
1967	Jon Matlack	LHP	4	A	Great pitcher for a lousy hitting team
1966	Steve Chilcott	C	1	F	Injured catcher
1965	Les Rohr	LHP	2	F	Injured pitcher

Vogelbach grand slam?  Lots of new recruits to the Vogelbach Fan Club, for sure.  

Mychal Givens?  Destroys his nice season ERA in his horrible Mets debut.  Bassitt?  Great.  Nimmo?  Suddenly red hot.  McNeil ditto.

Bring on the Braves.  Let's win 4 of 5.

Alvarez?  Hit his 4th HR.  "Hit" isn't the right word.  

It was a tape measure job, that apparently completely cleared the stadium:

https://www.milb.com/video/alvarez-crushes-4th-triple-a-hr?t=playerid-682626

After his 2 for 24, he's up to .200 and his OPS is already up to .822.  He's ready.