Paul Articulates – Will the Mets benefit from 2023 rule changes?

The 2023 rules changes in Major League Baseball have dominated discussion in the early preseason, and that is entirely appropriate, because they are not very subtle.  Definitions of the rule changes are shown below, courtesy of MLB.com.  

Some of them require players to make changes to their hitting and pitching rhythms.  Expect that to have a real impact on everything in the early games as adjustments are being made.  Of course all players and all teams are not equal, so some will see greater impact than others.  I have analyzed the changes and the teams in the National League, and came to some conclusions. 

Rule change: Elimination of the shift

Two infielders must be positioned on either side of 2B when pitch is released

• All four infielders must have both feet within the infield when pitcher is on rubber
• Shift restrictions increased batting average and decreased strikeouts in Minors while giving players more opportunity to show off their athleticism

The impact on the Mets should be favorable.  If you read my post last week, I pointed out several advantages that mitigated the effect on Mets hitting.  They have some great bat-control players, some line-drive hitters, and less “big swing” guys.  So their top-2 MLB batting average stands to improve, which should increase their top-5 MLB runs scored.  The only stat that I found which would counter this opinion is Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP).  

The MLB BABIP metric was at its worst ever level last year, as players kept hitting into the shift.  This was one of the stats that were highlighted in the discussion about the elimination of the shift.  So it stands to reason that without the shift, those stubborn pull-hitters are going to benefit.  The league average for BABIP was .290 last year and there were several teams below that average that will benefit most.  Fortunately, only one was in the NL East: Miami.

Rule change: Incorporation of a pitch timer

• 15 seconds with bases empty; 20 seconds with runners on
• Hitter gets 1 timeout per plate appearance; must be in batter’s box with 8 seconds left
• Pitchers get two disengagements (pickoff attempts or step-offs) per batter; violations are a balk
• Limits on pickoff attempts led to 26% increase in stolen base attempts in Minors
• Pitch timer helped reduce game length by 25 minutes in Minors in ‘22

The impact on the Mets should be favorable.  Look no further than the recent interview with Max Scherzer, who was nothing short of delighted with the rule change.  He felt that the one timeout for the batter put him in complete control of the tempo of an at-bat.  He is one of the top chess players to take the mound in baseball and will certainly use this to his advantage.  Justin Verlander is from the same school of thought.  

Those two will mentor the Mets pitching staff and they should all become “cats” in the cat-and-mouse games to follow.  The other impact of this rule change is the limitation on throws to first, which when coupled with the timer on pitch delivery should make it harder to hold runners on base.  The Mets have never been that good at holding runners on, but made improvements over the last year or two.  

This may work against what they developed, but I’m not sure that their disadvantage will be any greater or lesser than other teams.  The fact that they have strong defensive catchers is a plus.

Rule change: Bigger bases

• 1B, 2B and 3B increased from 15” square to 18” square
• Bigger bases expected to have positive impact on player safety
• Distance reduced by 3" from home to 1st and home to 3rd, reduced by 4.5" from 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd
• Bigger bases reduced injury events near the bases by more than 13% in the Minors in 2022

The impact on the Mets should be favorable.  This one is the smallest impact to the league of all the changes.  The increased size of the bag allows more room for runners and first basemen to maneuver without collision, so the result should be a decreased injury rate across the league.  Not everyone in the league has a first baseman like Pete Alonso, so saving him from injury is an advantage – as it is with the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Braves.  

There is also a slightly shorter path between bases, so stealing second and third base just got 4.5” easier.  That will have minimal effect, but since the Mets have some strong defensive catchers in Nido and Narvaez, they should have a similar success rate to 2022 when they were 7th in the NL with a 25% caught stealing rate.  And if you are wondering about the future, Francisco Alvarez has a gun for an arm.

So to summarize the impact of the 2023 rule changes on the Mets, I believe that they will be a net positive.  They have a very strong coaching staff, led by one of the most knowledgeable, detailed managers in the game.  They have some very high baseball IQs on their team, and a good clubhouse environment for sharing information.  These factors and the ones stated above should help the Mets come through the adjustments quicker and better than their opponents.  Advantage: Mets.