Tom Brennan - Mets' Top 50 Thoughts; & Mark; Bryce; and $$$

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Prospects 1500 does an excellent job at ranking the top 50 prospects for each of the 30 MLB teams. I guess when baseball eventually goes to 32 teams, they will have to change their name to Prospects 1560, though.  Quite the conundrum.  

Anyway, I had not gone through a Mets top 50 this year before now, in part because the bottom 10 or so of those 50 involve so much guesswork.

But since P 1500 did a Mets top 50, I thought through how I would comparatively rank mine (right column) as compared to theirs (left column).  Let me know where you think we're both wrong - or right.

PROSPECTS 1500	BRENNAN COMPARISON
1. Francisco Alvarez*, C, 21, MLB	Agreed # 1
2. Brett Baty*, 3B/OF, 23, MLB	Agreed # 2
3. Ronny Mauricio*, SS, 21, Double-A	# 4 Behind Parada
4. Kevin Parada, C, 21, Single-A	# 3, ahead of Mauricio
5. Alex Ramirez, OF, 19, Single-A	Agreed # 5
6. Jett Williams, SS, 19, Rookie (FCL)	Agreed # 6
7. Blade Tidwell, RHP, 21, Single-A	He’s my # 8
8. Dominic Hamel, RHP, 23, Single-A	He’s my # 9
9. Mark Vientos*, 1B/3B, 23, MLB	He’s my # 7 – based on at times huge HR rate
10. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, 20, Single-A	Agreed # 10
11. Matt Allan, RHP, 21, Single-A	Written before his latest surgery – now my # 35
12. Mike Vasil, RHP, 22, Single-A	Due to Allan injury, bumps to # 11; Mike GOOD
13. Jose Butto*, RHP, 24, MLB.	Bumped to # 12
14. Joel Diaz, RHP, 18, Single-A	Bumped to # 13 – young and talented
15. Nick Morabito, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL).	Bumped to # 14: bad brief 2022 debut; happens
16. Jacob Reimer, 3B, 18, Rookie (FCL)	Bumped to # 15
17. Willy Fanas, OF, 18, Rookie (DSL)	Bumped to # 16
18. Simon Juan, OF, 17, Rookie (DSL)	Tied at # 22 after his weak 2022 DSL hitting
19. Jesus Baez, SS/3B, 17, Rookie (DSL)	Bumped Jesus to # 17 Bryce Montes de Oca at # 18
20. Eric Orze, RHP, 25, Triple-A	Hi K reliever (136 in 100 career IP): agree # 20
21. Wyatt Young, 2B/SS, 23, Triple-A	Wonderful-in-2022  Wyatt Young up at # 19
22. JT Schwartz, 1B/3B, 23, Single-A	Agreed - # 22 – love to see more JT pop in ‘23
23. Grant Hartwig, RHP, 25, Triple-A	I like Hartwig at # 21 – a fine 2022
24. Zach Greene*, RHP, 26, Triple-A	I’m OK with # 23 for the ex-Yankee prospect
25. Javier Atencio, LHP, 21, Single-A	I’m OK with # 24
26. Christian Scott, RHP, 23, Single-A	Bad Arizona – I am dropping him to # 36
27. Luis Rodriguez, LHP, 19, Rookie (FCL)	No 2022, so I drop him to # 37
28. Daniel Juarez, LHP, 22, Single-A	Fine 2022, so I have him at # 26
29. Stanley Consuegra, OF, 22, Single-A	Stan the Man I have at # 25
30. Bryce Montes de Oca*, RHP, 26, MLB	I moved Bryce up to # 18 (s/b even higher);  Jordany Ventura comes up to # 30
31. Omar De Los Santos, OF, 23, Single-A	I’ll leave him at 31, but HIGH Ks a real danger
32. Junior Santos, RHP, 21, Single-A	Like Junior at # 27 – but he’s gotta do better
33. Khalil Lee*, OF, 25, MLB	Pushed him to # 40 – fans too much, & issues
34. Hayden Senger, C, 25, Triple-A	I like Senger at # 29; OK catcher, decent bat
35. Jordany Ventura, RHP, 22, Single-A	I like Ventura at # 30; injured Allan down to 35
36. Robert Dominguez, RHP, 20, Rookie (FCL)	I like Dominguez at ## 32; Scott moves to # 36
37. D’Andre Smith, SS/2B, 21, Single-A	Smith works for me at # 33; L Rod down to # 37.
38. Jose Peroza, 2B/3B, 22, Single-A	Jose is my # 28, and I feel that is conservative
39. Daison Acosta, RHP, 24, Single-A	Acosta I am good with at # 39 (strong 2nd half)
40. Josh Walker, LHP, 28, Triple-A	JW at # 34 after his 51 Ks in 32 IP; Lee # 40
41. Kevin Kendall, 2B/SS, 23, Single-A	Kendall impressed me in 2022, so # 38 & rising
42. Carlos Cortes, 2B/OF, 25, Triple-A	Sad to push Cortes to #41; his 2022 was bad.    Junior Tilien slots in at # 42. He showed a lot in 2022 at a young age  -  I got 3-HR-in-a-game Junior up at # 42 (he had 2 HRs in a game also). Two game wonder or future stud?  Time will tell.
Two game 43. Nick Meyer, C, 25, Triple-A	Nick drops to my # 43, due due to weak bat
44. Joander Suarez, RHP, 22, Single-A	# 46 is my guess
45. Jawilme Ramirez, RHP, 21, Single-A	Don’t know, so # 47 is my guess; slotting into # 45 instead is Layonel Ovalles, who fanned 66 in 46 IP as a 19 year old in the low minors.
46. Dangelo Sarmiento, 2B/SS 17 Rookie DSL	Don’t know, so # 48 is my guess
47. Cristofer Gomez, RHP, 19, Rookie (DSL)	Don’t know, so # 49 is my guess
48. Yohairo Cuevas, 1B/OF, 19, Rookie (DSL)	Don’t know, so # 50 is my guess
49. William Lugo, INF, 21, Single-A	Solid 2022 year; I got him at # 44, conservatively
50. Jaylen Palmer, 3B/OF, 22, Single-A	# 50 is now Cuevas.   Dropping Palmer just outside of top 50 – maybe he will solve his brutal K issue.  He has to, or he's gone.  Big year-to-year drop.  Another high ranked guyin 2022, Sherveyn Newton, is now with KCR system, and he is NOT in their top 50.

 

Prospects 1500 went heavily with longer term prospect outlooks – I tend to weight more recent performance, so even though I put Bryce Montes de Oca at # 18, I’d normally have him more around # 13.  That’s cool, though.

As I do these lists year in, year out, one thing I find to be true….DO NOT OVERVALUE HIGH STRIKEOUT HITTERS! They always drop precipitously down the list in subsequent years, because they almost never fix the problem…so if Omar De Los Santos reads this, take heed – it is what happens.  Fix your Ks, job # 1 in 2023.

Final Note:  Prospects 1500 has our top two guys as Tier 1 guys (future All Stars) and the next 7 as Tier 2 (solid future major league careers). By comparison Kansas City has ZERO Tier 1's and just 5 Tier 2's, so the Mets' system is in fine shape, despite shedding guys like Crow and Endy Rodriguez, who are Tier 1s with the Cubs and Pittsburgh, respectively.  Had we kept those 2, best Mets prospect year ever?

All we are saying, is give Mark a chance:

Mark Vientos on Monday led the entire majors in the number of at bats. He can’t complain about not getting an opportunity. And on Saturday, he sent a thank you note, hitting 2 homers that combined traversed 900 feet - 430 + 470, AND a 109 MPH single. That didn’t just happen by chance. Chances are, you understand that.

Bryce Montes de Oca Update: 

2 hitless, scoreless innings, 4 Ks, 2 walks. That projects over 80 innings to no runs, no hits, 80 walks, 160 Ks. I will accept nothing less in 2023.

Seriously, though, over his last 29 innings (MLB and AAA), 57 Ks. Just stating it for the record. That means 30 outs in 29 innings that weren’t strikeouts. How he let those 30 put the ball in play, I will never know.

Interested in Team Finances, anyone?

Pat Ragazzo SNY gave a nice high level picture here:

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/new-york-mets-citi-field-earned-record-revenue-in-2022?fbclid=IwAR0XzYU6XdZYq8eYEJlGr9c3boaaskw2midCHmqf2SHrzJ1ptsc-29maIS4