Spring training is the time of year to speculate how your team will perform, and with it how each individual will perform. We love to look through the lens of our rear view mirror because past statistics are the only thing we can be sure about. However, each player is intent upon improving flaws that impacted past performance and that match-up between a newly improved pitcher and newly improved batter always provides some surprises.
OK readers, take out your crystal balls and help me predict who will be the best of the Mets this year. I have chosen several offensive categories to make it interesting, but have also skipped some fairly obvious ones. History says that several categories are won by the same individual – so for example OPS, slugging, home runs all follow the same player – so I just included OPS. I have not included defensive predictions in this post as it would just be too long. Next week we can do defensive and pitching predictions.
The previous winners are based on a minimum of 300 plate appearances. Also, as with the Miss America pageant, we will also designate a first runner-up in case the predicted winner is unable to perform their duties (due to injury, illness, suspension, …).
Category: Best Batting Average (Avg)
Previous winners: Jeff McNeil (2019 - .318); Michael Conforto (2020 - .322); Brandon Nimmo (2021 - .292); Jeff McNeil (2022 - .326)
2023 prediction: Jeff McNeil (.312)
2023 first runner-up: Brandon Nimmo
Comments: McNeil is an easy choice for this category as long as he does not revert to experimenting with a power stroke to reach the now-closer right field seats. Nimmo will also hit well because he will see lots of good pitches with a stacked lineup behind him.
Category: Best On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Previous winners: Jeff McNeil (2019); Michael Conforto (2020-.412); Brandon Nimmo (2021 - .401); Jeff McNeil (2022 - .382)
2023 prediction: Brandon Nimmo (.396)
2023 first runner-up: Jeff McNeil
Comments: A healthy Nimmo at the top of the lineup will yield many scoring opportunities for the Mets because Nimmo knows how to get on – a good eye, sound bat, and face it – he is a ball magnet. McNeil will give Nimmo a run for his money, but in the end he would rather foul off an inside pitch than get hit by it.
Category: Best OBP Plus Slugging (OPS)
Previous winners: Pete Alonso (2019-.941); Dom Smith (2020-.993); Alonso (2021-.863); Alonso (2022-.870)
2023 prediction: Pete Alonso (.888)
2023 first runner-up: Starling Marte
Comments: Pete Alonso will do it again. He has worked hard on contact hitting so his average will be strong, he walks a lot which will help OBP, and we know he can hit it out of the park regularly. A healthy Marte will put up some big numbers this year.
Category: Runs Batted In (RBI)
Previous winners: Pete Alonso (2019 – 120); Dom Smith (2020 – 42); Pete Alonso (2021 – 94); Pete Alonso (2022 – 131)
2023 prediction: Pete Alonso (120)
2023 first runner-up: Francisco Lindor
Comments: It is tough to argue with Pete as an RBI guy as he will have the table set often when he comes up. Lindor has similar opportunities, but has had too high K rate with RISP to overcome Pete.
Category: Most Hit By Pitch (HBP)
Previous winners: Alonso/McNeil (2019 – 21); Conforto/Davis (2020 – 7); Alonso/Conforto (2021 – 14); Mark Canha (2022 – 28)
2023 prediction: Mark Canha (22)
2023 first runner-up: Tim Locastro
Comments: OK, we know that Mark Canha has no fear in the batter’s box so he will take plenty for the team. Locastro is an epic pitch magnet, but he has to make the team and get enough plate appearances to get hit enough to overcome Canha. However, if Canha gets injured and Locastro fills in as the everyday left fielder, Ron Hunt should be worried.
Category: Most Strikeouts (K)
Previous winners: Pete Alonso (2019 – 183); Pete Alonso (2020 – 61); Jonathan Villar (2021 – 132); Francisco Lindor (2022 – 133)
2023 prediction: Tommy Pham (116)
2023 first runner-up: Pete Alonso
Comments: Lindor’s strikeout total for last season was an anomaly – he probably tried to do too much with RISP. That will not happen again. If Pham gets considerable playing time as an outfielder and/or DH, his K rate will show through.
Category: Most Stolen Bases (SB)
Previous winners: Amed Rosario (2019 – 19); Michael Conforto (2020 – 3); Jonathan Villar (2021 – 14); Starling Marte (2022 – 18)
2023 prediction: Starling Marte (28)
2023 first runner-up: Francisco Lindor
Comments: A healthy Marte is a running Marte. He could double last year’s totals if he does not play conservatively. Nimmo is fast, but usually eschews the stolen base. Lindor is quick and crafty – if Marte is not healthy he could sneak in as the season winner.
Now that you have read my predictions, let’s see what you think – make your projections in the comments.
2 comments:
BA: Lindor
HR: Pete
RBI: Pete
OBP: Nimmmo
OPS: Pete
HBP: Cahna
K: Baty
SB: Marte
Marte won’t run that much, thankfully, as those muscle pulls are not player friendly. Let’s hope Pham is not up enough to fan that much. I think he is at the age of decline, and that will also mean a decline in ABs.
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