11/30/24

Reese Kaplan -- Still Lots of Space on the 40-Man Roster


The Mets still stand with several vacancies on the 40-man roster along with some who are there that face tenuous holds at best.  Bear in mind there will be some movements made once the 2025 season approaches as players get cut, traded or move onto the 60-day IL.  Given those facts, David Stearns has quite a task ahead of him trying to figure out how to build out the remainder of the top 40 players to be a part of the New York Mets organization.  Please bear in mind that Stearns inherited both the major and minor league rosters.  Yes, he’s made some additions already, but as witnessed by the fates of several players he picked last year, he’s not blindly loyal to what his thinking was at the time the newcomers arrived.

Let’s take a look at a the possible fate of a rocky eight:


Players on the Trade Bubble

Brett Baty — What can you say about the job done by Mark Vientos last year and the 2023 season produced by Ronny Mauricio which make Baty’s best efforts look fairly weak by comparison?  Yes, he was a high draft pick but as evidenced by countless examples all over baseball the most highly regarded players don’t necessarily pan out as anticipated.  Baty’s has enough impressive performance in the minors prior to 2024 that a club seeking a change of venue type of trade might want to give him a shot to play right away.

Starling Marte — It’s really hard to look at Marte as the same fragile but solid all around player who performed upon his arrival in 2022.  The following year was a lost one due to more injuries and despite strong base running in 2024, it would appear he plays older than he looks.  His fielding which had been very strong has deteriorated as well. The availability of him being in the lineup is inconsistent yet if the Mets pay down his final year of his deal they might likely find a taker. 

Jeff McNeil — How many chances do you keep giving the guy who earned his current contract after securing an NL batting title?  Between injuries and uneven hitting he’s made his positional versatility his best attribute rather than his previous command of the bat.  He’s another one who would need a buy-down on his remaining contract unless the Mets were engaged in a similarly expensive player from another club which would not require creative accounting. 

Tylor Megill — The key things to remember about Megill is that he’s out of options.  That means he’s on the roster or becomes a free agent at the end of Spring Training.  Given the Mets’ collective dearth of both starting and relief pitching you would think he’s more secure than the others on this list, but the fact is that like Brett Baty he’s never put together the major league consistency the club hoped he’d deliver.  He could be a piece of a package deal and allow another club to cross its fingers regarding which Megill is taking the mound for them each day.


Players on the “See Ya Later” Bubble

Dylan Covey — None of us in the baseball media can hope to claim the same level of expertise as the team’s front office and scouting departments, but a look at Covey’s numbers really make you wonder what the club was thinking.  He has a batting average against over .280 and his WHIP is atrocious.  Yes, he was a Stearns selection, but the experience during his front office era is how you play is whether or not you stay.

Luis De Los Santos — Here’s another player young enough to be a AAA stash in the event injury forces a replacement level player to make it to Citifield, yet his output doesn’t shine in any aspect.  There’s some power and some speed but the batting average has not been outstanding and he’s on an uphill right now to prove to the organization that he belongs.


Players on the Long Term Healing Bubble

Paul Blackburn — The midyear acquisition had a few good starts before his health started failing which eventually required time in an operating room to try to get him ready to play again midway into the 2025 season.  For his career he’s a more expensive version of Tylor Megill with a career ERA of 4.85 to accompany a losing 22-28 record, a .279 BAA and a WHIP of 1.41.  By comparison the one year younger Megill has a career ERA of 4.60, a .500 record, a .260 BAA and a career WHIP of 1.39.  The difference here is salary where Blackburn must be paid $3.45 million for his 2024 effort whereas Megill earned under $800K.  He’s not four times the pitcher but being injured meant the Mets would DFA him or keep paying him while he heals.  They opted for the latter.

Christian Scott — He was cruising through the minors with a career ERA of just 3.19 when he made it as a callup to the Mets in 2024.  He was off and on with good games and bad games before being diagnosed as needing Tommy John Surgery.  He’d shown good control and a solid WHIP though the ERA crept up to 4.56 as an NL rookie.  He’ll likely miss all of 2025 in rehab.

There are a great many other fringe players who likely will hang around like Max Kranick and Huascar Brazoban who likely won’t be in danger of losing roster spots but are not being counted upon to be difference makers.  Anyone you feel will be gone?

11/29/24

Tom Brennan: "Let's Open to the Book of Genesis"


Genesis in 2022 (source: Wiki)

I have heard many a preacher during a message say, "Let's Open to the Book of Genesis".

Genesis means "origin or beginning."

Well, this is baseball, so what beginning are the Mets about to embark on with newly acquired Genesis Cabrera

First of all, though signed to a minor league deal, one would speculate that as a 6'2" lefty reliever, he will be used by the Mets in 2025.

In 2024 with the Blue Jays, he was in 69 games, threw 63 IP, and had a 3.69 ERA.  Sounds great, right?

Two "buts":

But, why then, would Toronto let him go?

But what might be points of concern regarding Cabrera?

He only fanned 50 of 271 batters faced in 2024, while walking 29.  Not great, there.

His FIP, as listed by Baseball Reference, was 5.13.  That's high.

He allowed 39 inherited runners to score, the 16th highest total for pitchers in 2024, based on stats posted by CBS Sports.  Reed Garrett, who seemed to allow a lot of inherited runners to score, actually did, allowing 34; Cabrera faced about 10% more batters, so they were about equally not good in that regard.  The worst in all of baseball was TJ McFarland, as a point of reference - he faced 235 batters and allowed a whopping 66 inherited runners to score.

Had Genesis Cabrera been in the NL, he would have been tied at 2nd worst in IRS. 

Fangraphs, though, has him projected at 50 innings in 2025, with a 4.08 ERA (worse) BUT a FIP of 4.39 (nearly a run better).  And he gave up 10 HRs in those 63 innings, not terrible but not great, either.

Interestingly, his 2024 ERA against .500+ teams was 3.32 but just 4.09 against below .500 teams.

He also gave up 6 earned runs in his first 5 innings of 2024, and 4 earned runs in 1.2 IP the last week of the season.  after those 6 innings, his ERA for the 5 1/2 months excluding the first and last week of the season was a fine 2.41.  So, give him the first and last week off and you're doing yourself a favor? Maybe.  Perhaps.

Lastly, his WHIP was 1.46 in 2024, which is on the high side.

Toronto?  Maybe they let him go because his anticipated arbitration $$ made his retention calculus unfavorable to the Blue Jays.  He is a free agent in 2026.

All things being equal, my takeaway is he was a "cheap get" for the Mets and should be helpful in 2025 when used prudently.

Reese Kaplan -- Who Bet Blake Snell As the First Prime FA Signed?


If someone asked you to make a bet which top tier free agent would be the first to land, how many of you would have said Blake Snell?  Anyone?  Bueller? 

Much to everyone’s surprise the highly desired Snell just inked a five year deal with the (surprise, surprise) Los Angeles Dodgers to the tune of $182 million.  By my calculator that’s an average annual value (AAV) of $36.4 million per season for his age 32, 33, 34, 35 and 36 seasons.  While the magnitude of the contract is a little surprising, diving a little deeper you have to wonder if this contract was a good decision.

There’s no question Snell is one of the very top pitchers in the game.  Between the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018 and the San Diego Padres in 2023 he secured the Cy Young Award, one in each league.  With a career ERA of just 3.19 over a 9 year career is spectacular. 

Dig a little deeper, however, and you will see some major red flags.  Considering 9 full seasons (well, 8 if you leave out the COVID-shortened one), he has eclipsed 30 starts just twice.  That means of the 8 full season opportunities 6 times he did not.  Ummm...that’s a bit concerning. 

As a southpaw, it’s fairly common in major league baseball for development to occur a bit later rather than straight out of the gate as a rookie in 2016.  His first two seasons in Florida saw him go 11-15 over 43 starts with a combined 3.83 ERA, a WHIP close to 1.500 and he was walking way too many people.

In 2018, of course, all things came together and Snell went 21-5 with a sparkling ERA of just 1.89 while keeping his WHIP under 1.000 and he got the walks under control for the first time in the majors.  All was good and the future’s so bright you gotta wear shades...

Or not. 

As a follow up to that terrific award winning season he only appeared in 23 games, he held a losing record, the ERA jumped to 4.29 and the WHIP increased by over 25%.

As his career progressed you had to get accustomed to good games and bad games, lots of time off the field with injuries, but an ever expanding paycheck.  For a quick point of comparison, one Jacob deGrom has a career ERA of just 2.52, a 30-game over .500 record and similarly a lot of time on the IL. 

My point here isn’t to criticize the Dodgers for snagging one of the truly best pitchers available right now, but to question if he was the best available option.  By contrast, fellow free agent Corbin Burnes is a few years younger, pitches to a similar 3.19 ERA and has started 30 games every season but 2020 save for the year he did 28.  His control is stellar and his WHIP for his career is hovering right around 1.000.

It would seem to me that the youth, control and equal availability via free agency would have made Burnes the better choice between these two hurlers.  Of course, just as the Mets and Yankees often try to outdo one another, the Dodgers seemingly have a stronger similar relationship with the Giants as opposed to the nearer Angels or Padres.  Snagging the best pitcher who last played for San Francisco is a double gotcha for the folks in Chavez Ravine. 

Anyway, congrats to Blake Snell and the Dodgers for making the first major contract of the offseason.  I don’t consider the Yusei Kikuchi deal anywhere near the same magnitude. Oh yeah, there’s also that guy named Soto...

11/28/24

Mack - MY Thursday Morning Observations

 

MACK – Thursday Morning Observations –  Acuna, Roki, Yusei, George, SRF, Sotomania

 

Mike Mayer            @mikemayer22

Mets prospect Luisangel Acuña was back in the Cardenales de Lara lineup at shortstop on Tuesday night after missing two games.

He went 0-for-3 with a walk and run scored. OPS for winter ball is at .933.

 

Ernest Dove            @ernestdove

Regarding the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes I'm told it doesn't appear the Mets will be his ultimate destination.  The organization obviously would love to have him and is awaiting his choice like everyone else, but for now it doesn't seem to be a prioritized spot for him.

Mack – I’ll tell ya something about the Dove-mon… he doesn’t go to print unless Mets officials tell him it’s true. Yes, this is an anonymous source, but it’s a real one. Me? I never expected this guy to be on the Mets radar. No inside info. Just me.

 

Jon Heyman            @JonHeyman         (“U-SAY”)

Yusei Kikuchi to the Angels. $63M, 3 years

27/yrs           LHP                 6-0                  210

2024:             1.4-WAR, 9-10, 4.05

Career:          4.1-WAR, 41-47, 4.57

6yrs:              837-K – 809-IP

            Mack – That’s $21,000,000 a year for three years

            Wow.

            

This sets the low end of the starting pitcher market this season. Team officials are not going to like these numbers, especially when they are trying to bring back guys like Sean Manaea.

 

Jim Koenigsberger            @Jimfrombaseball

“I was still a young kid and I was like`Really?’. This is what happens in the big leagues? They blow stuff up in between games and fans charge the field and police have to come out? I thought these fans in Chicago were the best because they’re saying  `Let’s go Sox! Let’s go Sox!'. They were really chanting `Disco sucks! Disco sucks! Disco sucks!’"

Dan Petry

            Mack – gives me the opportunity to bring up a true story I’ve told before…

            Back in the 70s, I was Sales Manager for WKTU-FM, in New Yawk City. Yes, the station that changed format from Mellow Rock in 1978, to disco, and became the most listened to station in the country.

Got a call one day from Barry Landers, who was the SID for the New York Yankees, and he asked me if I was interested in arranging an on air giveaway of 100 pairs of tickets to a Yankees doubleheader. His idea was to do the same on rock station WPLJ-FM, then schedule a celebrity softball game between the two Yankee games in which DJs and celebrities would play.

I thought it was a great idea, agreed to it, and turned it over to my Program Director, with instructions to save third base for me.

So, game time and game one goes, and we run out on the field for introductions. Before one pitch was thrown, there was a commotion in the stands. Seems Barry gave the 100 pairs of WPLJ arian rich rockers fans sitting right next to the 100 pairs of urban poor disco listeners. Words were expressed, followed by a knife or two, and everything went to shit in a second.

Both the softball game, and game two of the doubleheader, were cancelled and eventually we all went home.

The next day, Barry and I were on the phone doing damage control, when I heard a click on the phone.

            “John”?, bellowed a strong voice.

            “Sir?, I addressed back.

            “This is GEORGE… let’s not do that again.”

The phone clicked dead.

 

Mets, Sean Reid-Foley agree on one-year contract to avoid arbitration

Sean Reid-Foley

29/yrs old                RHRP             6-3                  230

    2nd rd. pick 2014 draft – Toronto - Sandlewood HS (FL)

Acquired on Jan. 27, 2021, trade that sent left-hander Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Free agent: 2028  -  2025 salary: $900K

2024 MLB –             0.2-WAR, 1-2, 1.66

Career -                     -0.1-WAR, 8-12, 4.10

Minors (9/yrs) -     40-40, 4.28, 628.2-IP, 721-K

Injury ridden career – average 13.1-IP over last 5 seasons

Mack – I don’t know any Met writers or fans that doesn’t love SRF. The only problem I have with him is he can’t stay on the field. Hopefully, the Mets have given him the proper amount of time to heal 100% and come back as an effective back-end one inning reliever. The team could sure use0 him[MA1] .

 

            FOX Sports: MLB                @MLBONFOX

Juan Soto reportedly has offers from these five teams:

▫️ Red Sox

▫️ Dodgers

▫️ Mets

▫️ Yankees

▫️ Blue Jays

 

Jacob P.M.          @JacobBSpeaks

Juan Soto has decided to stay in New York! Not in the way that you expected though… he is now the proud Owner & Operator of Juan Soto’s Bodega Bonanza located in the Bronx! Be sure to stop by before Yankee games to reminisce on good times

 

Earl                 @YankeesFanEarl

Credit to Jacob for finding Juan Soto’s LinkedIn, and I while I may be reading into things too much I’d like to point out that the Yankees official soft drink sponsor is Pepsi while the Mets’ is Coca-Cola. Did Hal come through with the Pepsi endorsement to seal the deal?

 

Mack – Everybody and their rich uncle is trying to predict where this ONE BASEBALL PLAYER is going to save the entire sport from oblivion. Me? I just simply can’t wait until this is over regardless of what team he chooses.


 [MA1]

Ernest Dove: Interview with Zach Thornton


Mets Prospect Guru, Ernest Dove, talks with Mets Pitching Prospect Zach Thornton.   

For more of Ernest's wisdom and lots of great Mets Prospect Videos subscribe to Ernest's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ernestdove.

You can watch on YouTube or below.




Paul Articulates - The Veteran Dilemma


The Steve Cohen / David Stearns plan to rebuild the New York Mets into a sustainable championship contender made great strides last year as the team rode a late season surge to a berth in the National League Championship Series.  

Although the Mets ultimately lost that series to the World Champion Dodgers, they put up a great fight (better than the Yankees in the WS).

So now, as we are a couple weeks into the free agent signing period, how does the front office go about improving upon last year?  Clearly there is a need to bolster the pitching both in the rotation and in the bullpen.  

I believe that there will be some notable additions to the team in this area that will have Mets fans excitedly looking forward to the 2025 season.  There is also the Juan Soto sweepstakes which will go on for weeks.  You can read the tea leaves any way you want, but it will likely be some sort of late dynamic that will seal Soto’s future.

As easy as it is to covet the star players that are available and rationalize that “Steve can afford it”, there are also some other dirty details that must be determined to shape the roster.  Those details involve what to do with some of the older veterans on the team.  That is the subject of this article.

The path to a sustainable championship contender has to be paved with talented youth coming up through the development system.  The economics of MLB roster building requires that some portion of the team consists of players that are still under team control at affordable annual wages so there is enough available money to obtain the star power that makes a good team great.  

If you buy into this premise, then you understand that there has to be a steady flow of talent into the major league team, and that flow has to be matched by other personnel exiting the roster.  Most likely those that exit are marginal bench players and/or aging veterans that have passed their peak.

A quick scan of the 40 man roster for the oldest position players yields two visible stars that underperformed last year: Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil.  Both of those players have had very productive years with the Mets and have earned some loyalty from the fans for bringing many memorable moments to the Citi Field faithful.  

Unfortunately, in the business side of baseball, there is not much loyalty.  Roster decisions are ultimately made through value assessments of each player and their ability to contribute to future wins.  So let us do such an assessment on our two aging stars.


Starling Marte was born October 9, 1988 which will make him 37 years old on opening day 2025.  Marte has compiled an impressive .286/.342/.441 slash line over a 1432 game MLB career.  He is a two-time gold glove winner and a two-time National League all-star.  In 2015 he was named a Wilson defensive player of the year.  

Marte has contributed 304 hits in 298 games since his debut with the Mets in 2022 and 81 of those went for extra bases.  He stole 58 bags during that period which is just over 20% of the stolen bases for the team. He has played primarily in right field for the Mets where he has displayed a powerful throwing arm and above average range when healthy.

“When healthy” is the key phrase where Starling Marte is concerned.  He was a key component of a 101-win season in 2022 but when he went down with an injury in the last month of the season, the Mets slumped their way to a disappointing finish.  In 2023, Marte was less than healthy all season, having had abdominal surgery in the off-season that never really healed before he began playing.  

The result was the weakest season of his career with a .248 batting average and .635 OPS (both career lows).  He flashed some of his skills in 2024, particularly during the team’s late season run, but he also took some plays off and finished below his career averages in average, OBP, and OPS.  A skilled outfielder with a .269 batting average is a positive for just about any team, but the most troubling trend is Marte’s availability.  He played in 145 games in 2018 and his games played have steadily declined each year to less than 100 in 2023 and 2024.  

One of the more relevant statistics for determining player value is WAR.  In Marte’s case where he’s good when healthy the WAR value is particularly telling because you can only accumulate WAR when performing on the field.  In 2024 he contributed 0.6 WAR.  Since every player has their ups and downs, let’s look at a three year span.  Marte’s WAR for the 2022-2024 seasons totals 3.8.  

Marte’s salary for those same seasons totals $53.5M.  That equates to roughly $14M per 1.0 WAR which doesn’t seem to be a good buy.  With a $19.5M salary in 2025, the Mets are paying a lot for just over 1 win.


Jeff McNeil was born April 8, 1992 which will make him 33 years old 11 days after opening day 2025.  Jeff has compiled an equally impressive .289/.353/.430 slash line over an 801 game MLB career.  Like Marte, Jeff is a two-time National League all-star.  He also won a silver slugger award in 2022, the year he won the MLB batting title.

McNeil has meant many things to the Mets over the years.  Not only has he been a great hitter with premier bat-to-ball skills, but he has also shown versatility in the field.  McNeil can play both the infield and the outfield well and has done so many times for the Mets.  

Few players in MLB are capable of playing at McNeil's level in the corner outfield positions and the infield.  This gives the manager the ultimate lineup flexibility because he can switch McNeil during a game to optimize situational substitution.

Age does not seem to have caught up with McNeil in the field, as he played both IF and OF positions well in 2024.  However, his hitting has been very erratic.  In 2021 his batting average plummeted as he tried to add power to his swing.  This recovered quickly in 2022 during his batting title year, but then he regressed in 2023 and that trend continued for the first 3 months of 2024 before he ended the year by hitting .289 after the all-star break.

The erratic hitting makes it difficult to project value into 2025.  Using the WAR method, Jeff earned 9.3 WAR over the last 3 seasons while making $19.5M which yields roughly $2.1M/WAR.  This is a much better figure than Marte.  However, McNeil’s WAR has declined in the past two years and his salary is going up thanks to an extension signed in 2023.  Next season he is on contract to earn $15.75M.

I conclude by acknowledging the difficult job that the front office has during this off-season.  The numbers do not support keeping a Starling Marte on the roster if you are trying to promote youthful talent but it is not easy to unload a $19.5M 37-year old and get much in return.  

With McNeil, one could argue that he still has enough left in the tank to contribute as a utility player, but should not block a LuisAngel Acuna or Jett Williams from proving their abilities in a MLB lineup when they are ready.  


Tom Brennan: FanGraphs MLB Projections: 2025 Mets Hitters...and Soto Stuff


HOW HIGH A TRAJECTORY IS PROJECTED FOR 2025 METS HITTERS?

FanGraphs (FG)?

It does interesting 2025 projections of MLB and high minors players.

What (as of November 20) do the Fan Graphers think Mets fans can expect in 2025 from Mets hitters?

They usually have two projections - Steamers and FanGraphs (FGDC) - some times the two diverge, and when they do, the figures below represent an average of the two:

Jose Siri?  370 PAs, .206/.265/.383. 14 HRs, 40 RBIs, 12 steals.  Doubtful he will get up that much as a back up OF who has strong D, but poor offense.

Drew Gilbert? FG has 104 PAs, .224/.296/.364, 3 HRs, 10 RBIs, 2 steals. 

Jett Williams? FG pegs him for just 14 PAs in 2025  in the big leagues.

Both Gilbert and Jett's projected MLB totals would have likely been much higher had they not been injured.

Ronny Mauricio?  264 PAs, .249/.297/.411, 9 HRs, 30 RBIs. 

LuisAngel Acuna? 452 PAs, .250/.296/.365, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 21 SB. Not shabby. 

Mark Vientos? 664 PAs, .243/.311/.459, 33 HRs, 93 RBIs.  I'll take it.

Francisco Alvarez? 503 PAs, .236/.315/.445, 23 HRs, 66 RBIs.  I'll take it.

Jeff McNeil? 622 ABs, 32 2Bs, 12 HRs, 72 RBIs, .271/.332/.397.  If he stays healthy, perhaps.  For that level of production, he would be UNDERpaid in 2025.

Brandon Nimmo? 638 PAs, .252/.346/.417, 19 HRs, 72 RBIs.  I'll take that.

Starling Marte? 554 PAs, .261/.318/.394, 21 SBs, 13 HRs, 60 RBIs. I'll take it.

Tyrone Taylor? 472 PAs, 16 HR, 54 RBIs, .236/.290/.407.  I'll take that.

Francisco Lindor?  687 PAs, 28 HRs, 79 RBIs, .256/.332/.447, 25 steals. Feels a little understated.

Pete Alonso? 668 PAs, .242/.328/.473, 36 HRs, 100 RBIs.  Hard to see that walk out the door. 

Before I go:

FG re: Juan Soto?  686 PAs, .284/.418/.536, 35 HRs, 97 RBIs, 110 runs.

Tom Turkey's projections were unavailable, but he can sure gobble, gobble, gobble up grounders.  His manager is an old gizzard, I hear.

Although this fine article was intended to be just about hitters, I will look at FG projections for 2025 for two aspiring Mets minors pitchers...

Brandon Sproat?  3-5, 4.17, 13 starts, 74 IP, 7.9 Ks/9 IP.

Jonah Tong? 2-2, 4.29, 5 starts, 28 IP, 8.3 Ks/9 IP. 

So they project that both of these pitchers, will reach the majors and total 102 decent innings between them.  

 - The FanGraphs projections for these two seem reasonable to me.

SOTO SWEEPSTAKES HEATING UP

Yankees just upped their offer.  A Pot o'Gold, and some Lucky Charms.

I have no idea how much $, but no doubt it's the stuff of Brinks trucks.

Red Sox?  

I read this: "Boston tried to sell Soto on Fenway being the perfect ballpark for him and is said to have had a productive meeting as well."

I guess selling a park as being perfect for a HOF-bound hitter is important, huh?  Who woulda thunk it?  Anyway...

HAPPY THANKSGIVING - IN EVERYTHING, GIVE THANKS!

AND DON'T GET INTO AN ARGUMENT WITH YOUR AUNT DAISY

AND CLUNK HER WITH A DRUMSTICK! HER LEFT HOOK IS PURE TYSON.




You can project your comments on these projections.

11/27/24

Tom Brennan: Joey Meneses Joins the Mets Organization

Photo: Joe Glorioso

“Joey.”

It is only fitting we’d sign one.

We in Metsville in 2024 briefly had Joey Wendle, which didn't go too well - but I was always pulling for Joey Lucchesi, who got stuck in the minors a lot and then went the free agent recently (understandably).

So, the Mets thankfully made the “Joey deficit” up to me by signing another Joey, namely one Joey Meneses.

One thing you can say about Meneses...he is a ballplayer.  

As in….He plays a lot.

Since he started out in pro ball in 2011, he has played in 1,773 games, and been up a whopping 7,162 times.

A remarkable 30% of those plate appearances have been in winter ball, where he has been to the plate nearly 2,200 times.

For Meneses, all that 4 seasons per year work finally paid off in 2022.

He started out in the Braves organization, then to the Phillies and Red Sox organizations, before latching on with the Nationals organization.

It took him 11 years to reach the majors at age 30, with Washington, and when he did in 2022, he did it in a big way.  

He got in 56 Nats games and hit a remarkable .324, with a .563 slug %.

He finally got called up for the very first time in August 2022 right after the Nats traded away Josh Bell...and some slugger named JUAN SOTO!

Joey hit well in 2023, too, and played a ton, with an Alonso-like 657 PAs for the Nats, hitting .275/.321/.401, with 50 extra base hits and 89 RBIs. (Pete Alonso in 2024 was up 695 times, hit just .240, and had 88 RBIs).

In 2024, Joey the M played less and hit lower (.231) in 76 games and just 313 PAs, with 42 runs belted in for the Nats, and also spent a chunk of time in AAA as the Nats' youth movement kicked in.  

As of November 25, though, “Working Joey” has since season’s end has already played in 32 winter ball games, hitting a robust .319 with a .560 slugging %.  

He was born in Culiacan, and plays winter ball there.  I only know the name "Culiacan" from watching the 2004 movie thriller Collateral with Tom Cruise, Jamie Foxx, and Javier Bardem, among others.  Good flick.

Meneses has played 1B (in the majors, just one error there) and in the outfield and had even played some 3B in the minors.  

A 6'3", 235 righty hitter, he is not an Alonso in terms of power, as he has "just" 181 pro HRs in those 7,100+ plate appearances.  More, it seems, like a righty Ed Kranepool.

His career MLB stats from 2022 to 2024 are certainly pretty solid: 

1,114 at bats, 29 HRs, 165 RBIs, .274/.322/.408.  

The question for him is will his MLB stats continue their 2024 decline due to age. He turns 33 in May 2025, making him still a month younger than our very own Jeff McNeil. 

It will be interesting to see where he fits in for the 2025 Mets. He probably is an injury fill-in type and will be playing in AAA until needed, unless he has an opt-out clause in his contract, but that I don't know.

Lastly, I would be remiss not to point out that he has not hit well in his brief time playing in games at Citifield, going .250 in 52 at bats, but with no extra base hits and just 3 walks.  If he gets called up to Queens, that obviously will have to improve.

JOEY!!


Reese Kaplan -- Let's Not Forget Trades To Improve the Team


While there has been quite a bit of chatter regarding free agency, not nearly as much attention has been paid to the trade market.  Part of the reason is that we are not all as intimately familiar with 29 other clubs’ positional needs and budgetary constraints.  

Another part is that we do not live inside the heads of David Stearns and Steve Cohen to know what their taste is for giving up major league and/or minor league assets to acquire new members of the New York Mets.

We can list many players rumored to be available for the right asking price.  In no particular order there are Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert, Jr. of the White Sox, Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals, Cody Bellinger of the Cubs and pretty much any player earning too much money for what he provides to his current employer.

Now there are three ways to approach these types of deals.  You can offer up players who no longer fit your blueprint for building a sustained competitive team.  Names here could include the likes of Starling Marte or Jeff McNeil.  

The problem is that unless you’re taking over another team’s overpriced player you’d likely have to pay down the payroll responsibility for these high priced solid but underperforming stars. 

The second approach is to move a currently seemingly entrenched piece to another team in exchange for multiple pieces of theirs that could include major league ballplayers and top level prospects.  In this case you may not have to pay down the contract value but in addition to whatever you receive you would then have to replace that skill set as well which would come at a separate price in another deal elsewhere.  

Consider for a moment what closer Edwin Diaz could land in this type of deal.  Your return would be solid but then you’re left with the who’s our closer question that would now be wide open.

This third approach is kind of a mirror image of the starting rotation housecleaning done during 2023.  In this case you identify the top prospects who you hope will be formidable and inexpensive parts of your future.  To land them you need to give up something of substantial value like Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander.  In this case, however, what might work best for the Mets is for them to play the role of the Rangers and the Astros.

Consider the list of prospective players above.  Rather than list one or two specifically, let’s consider how the Mets could use their suddenly more interesting farm system to help a club rebuild for their future in exchange for some immediate help for the big league Mets. 

Suppose you put together solid top 25 prospects like Jett Williams, Ryan Clifford, Luisangel Acuna, Ronny Mauricio, Jonah Tong, Brett Baty and another one or two highly regarded players.  That return to the other club should net those big names. 

However, instead of looking for a 1-2 year solution, what would be even more appealing is obtaining younger highly regarded players who would not break the payroll bank for a couple of years while you see how they fit into Citifield. 


Now many will squawk that giving way the farm system puts the club right back where it was prior to reinforcing it.  I see it differently.  The idea was that the incoming youngsters were going to become solid major leaguers always came with an element of risk.  

Take Brett Baty as an example.  He made minor league headlines with his bat but it didn’t translate to the majors.  Maybe Jett Williams is the next Rickey Henderson.  Maybe he’s the next Roger Cedeno.  

What you’re doing in this kind of deal is transferring that gamble to his new employer and in exchange you’re picking up proven big league talent which was the point to improving the farm system in the first place.  You need to give to get and if giving is unproven players for proven ones then you need to keep an open mind.   

11/26/24

Remember 1969 - Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 



 Remember's Reminiscing – Volume 1, Article 7

November 26, 2024

Birthday Spotlight


Today’s birthday spotlight is on a player that played for the Mets 45 years ago, but one I remember quite well for some reason.   Richie Hebner is turning 77 years old today.   In looking through the list of November 26 birthdays, neither Brian Schneider nor Josh Smoker instilled much interest – so Mr. Hebner was it.   



I did a little research and was quite surprised to see that he only played for the Mets for one season – 1979.  

Richie Hebner was acquired by the Mets late in Spring Training in March 1979, two days before releasing Lenny Randle.   Hebner was another attempt to find a good third baseman, with Randle being their 1978 failed experiment.   Pitcher Nino Espinosa was sent to the Phillies in exchange for the 31 year old Hebner who had a pretty good start of a career at that point with his first eight years with the Pirates and a couple with the Phils.  Unfortunately, as many of Mack’s good readers know, building a team with players over 30 years old is not the best way to find the winning ways and Hebner was not the exception to that rule.   

He actually did not have a terrible year at the plate with a .268 BA and a .354 on base percentage.   He struck out just 59 times in his 550 plate appearances while walking the exact same 59 times.   His .393 slugging percentage gave him a .747 OPS for the year which is passable.  

Where he did not help was on the field where his 22 errors at the hot corner produced a .940 fielding percentage.   He even had an error among his 29 chances at first base while playing only 25 innings on the right side. 

Even the late 70’s Mets decided that he wasn’t the long term winning answer and traded him to the Tigers for Phil Mankowski, another poor fielding third baseman that was nowhere near the hitter Hebner was, along with outfielder Jerry Morales who didn’t make up for Mankowski’s weaknesses.   Hebner went on to become a part-time player with Detroit for two and a half years before returning to Pittsburgh in mid-year 1982.   He finished his career with the Cubs in 1984 and 85.    

Overall, Hebner put together a better than normal final stat sheet with 32.9 bWAR, built from almost 1700 hits and over 200 home runs.   His final career line was .276/.352/.438 for an OPS if .790, mostly accrued prior to his Mets tenure.   He went on to become a longtime minor league coach and manager.

While I don’t have any specific Richie Hebner stories, I do remember him as a hard-nosed throw-back type player.   This is total conjecture, but my suspicion is that he did not do anything to keep himself as a New York Met.   His hitting line alone was better than most third baseman they had employed previously – the likes of Wayne Garrett, Joe Foy, Ed Charles, Jim Fregosi, and the aforementioned Lenny Randle to name a few that passed through the hot corner turnstile. 

I did remember that his off-season job (ballplayers still needed them in the early 70’s) was digging graves.  His websites show his nickname as ‘Gravedigger’, although I never heard that applied to him as a baseball player. 

My memories of his intense level of play were confirmed when I found this Richie Hebner quote that was published in Baseball Digest in January 1980:  "Hockey is my kind of sport. You can get your feelings out on the ice. Baseball is you and the pitcher. Strike out and you gotta go back to the dugout and wait until the next time up. I can't stand those feelings inside me. That's the trouble with ball, there's no outlet in the game."      Somehow I feel like he didn’t always keep those feelings in the dugout, but I have nothing specific, other than remember how he played the game 45 years ago.             

 Remember’s Ramblings for the week

We have had some recent discussions recently about prospects – the age old game of “Keep ‘em or Trade ‘em”.   My personal opinion is generally “Keep ‘em” if they are true prospects.  

It was interesting that with all the gnawing and mashing of the teeth at the time of the Jarred Kelenic for Edwin Diaz trade, I was actually in favor of that one at the time.    I was not happy with the Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez trade.   Those two statements are really backwards because my real belief is that prospects for relief pitching is a solid no.    I did, however, feel Diaz at that time was that good that it was worth a shot to get one of the top closers in baseball, but do not trade for filler set-up guys with the higher level draft choices. 

For the specific trade that has been discussed – that of Garrett Crochet, he does not have a good or long enough track record to trade any top 5 prospects. 

My untouchable of prospects at this point is actually quite short.  On the position side, I am keeping Jett Williams, Carson Benge and Nick Morabito this off-season at all costs.   As far as the pitchers, I definitely keep Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong, and Blade Tidwell probably gets another chance.  

Drew Gilbert is a player that I would generally think should be a keeper, but he is now older than my typical keeper prospect at 24 years old now.   I’d like to see if he can come back with a strong 2025 to really prove his #1 pick from three years ago, but if he is included in the right trade to improve the big club, I will not complain much. 

Guys a little farther down the line that I am interested to see more development in the Mets chain before being cast off are Boston Baro and Nolan McLean.     

Perhaps my approach is a bit conservative, but I’d really like to see the Mets get some home-grown talent developed and on the field at Citi.    Unfortunately, there is a lot of ‘trade too late’ built into this approach, such as the case of Kevin Parada and AlexRamirez.   It is difficult to see these top guys not develop completely and not provide value for either the major league team or as a trade chip. 

Foot Note:   I don’t have much issue trading hitters that have the words ‘swing and miss’ and pitchers who have ‘not fully harnessed command’ in their respective profiles.  Hitters at lower levels that strike out a lot typically do not fix that as they move up and pitchers that cannot find the strike zone don’t suddenly wake up with great control.   Those are the ones that I say “trade ‘em” (RyanClifford and Parada, among others).

 

That’s all for now – Have a great Thanksgiving!