On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the
upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending
with the pick for 1.1
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -
#43 A.J. Russell
RHP Tennessee
20/years old
6' 6" 207
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 40 |
Control: 55 | Overall: 50
Russell had a spectacular freshman season as a reliever at
Tennessee in 2023, posting an 0.89 ERA, .095 average-against and a 47/7 K/BB
ratio in 30 1/3 innings. Expected to join the Volunteers' weekend rotation as a
sophomore, he left his second start with shoulder soreness, felt pain in his
forearm when he returned a month later and had internal brace surgery to repair
his elbow last June. If completely healthy, he'd go in the top half of the
first round, but he isn't expected to return to game action before April.
Russell has a unicorn fastball that could grade as a true 80
offering if he adds more velocity. It sits at 92-94 mph and tops out at 98 with
the best heater metrics in the Draft thanks to an exceptionally low release
point, wide angle, significant armside run and carry up in the zone. He can get
swings-and-misses inside and outside of the strike zone with his fastball, and
on the rare occasions when hitters make contact, they almost never drive it in
the air.
A low-80s slider with plenty of horizontal action gives
Russell a plus second pitch, though he has yet to show much feel for his
mid-80s changeup with sink. He has pounded the zone and dominated when healthy
but his durability is a huge question mark, as he also dealt with soreness as a
freshman. He has the upside of frontline starter and the stuff to close games
if he can't handle a rotation workload.
1-23-25 –
Jacob Rudner
@JacobRudner
News: Touted Tennessee righty AJ Russell has continued to
progress from elbow surgery and the Vols now anticipate him pitching in the
second half of the season, which had been up in the air.
Russell has one of the best fastballs in college ball
1-22-25 –
Just Baseball: 2025 MLB Draft – Top 80 College Prospects
https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-college-prospects/?s=03
38. AJ Russell – RHP
HT/WT: 6’6/207 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Tennessee | Age: 21
After a stellar freshmen campaign for the Volunteers, Russell
jumped into the weekend rotation to start the year, though an elbow injury
lingered throughout the year.
This injury resulted in a non-invasive version of Tommy John
surgery, meaning there’s a chance that Russell will see time on the bump in
2025. With that said, teams value loud data and Russell fits that bill, meaning
he’ll have suitors even if he doesn’t see the mound before next July.
At 6’6, 207 pounds, Russell is a very large specimen with
tons of projection, though some of the angles that he creates with his arm and
body are insane.
The fastball is one of the loudest metrically in the country.
From a five-foot release height, Russell generates a ton of armside life from
an extremely low VAA, leading to whiffs aplenty.
The low-80s slider is a sweepy monster with high spin rates
and lift, utilizing it as an out-pitch to righties. There’s a loose change-up
in there, though he’s struggled to command it. Assuming Russell sees time in
2025 and adds more of a third pitch, he’ll go within the first five rounds next
summer.
1-22-25 –
The best sinkers in college baseball
https://futurestarsseries.com/best-sinkers-college-baseball-2025-aj-russell-tucker-biven/
AJ Russell, Tennessee
If there’s one arm on this list that may buck the trend of
non-first rounders, it’ll be Russell. Unfortunately for the masses, Russell
underwent Tommy John surgery last June and his 2025 is very much in question.
Across 14.1 innings last season, Russell punched 21 tickets and walked 8
batters.
A full reconstruction was required on Russell’s UCL, but he
was fitted with an internal brace and the hope is he’ll be ready to return to
action early in the 2025 season. Hope and reality often have a way of
bifurcating, however. Russell insists
he’ll pitch later this season for the Vols. Operating under that assumption,
let’s talk about the stuff.
Russell is one of the more unique righties in the country. He
launches his arsenal from a sub-6-foot release. It’s more than nine inches
lower than the average release height in MLB. His sinker averaged 17.5 inches
of arm-side running action last year. Russell doesn’t sink the ball especially
well. In fact, it would probably be argued his ability to maintain any carry at
all on his fastball from his arm-slot should be the more hotly discussed topic
here. The flatter approach he creates (-4.4°) from his 6-foot-6-inch frame is
extraordinarily unique. Still, his fastball is categorized as a sinker, so
we’ll operate as such.
Russell flirted with 98 last season and was routinely 93-95.
He achieved this arm speed despite admitting to being hurt for more than a
year. He induced a 32-percent whiff rate on his sinker and an exceptional
32-percent chase rate to boot. Russell spins the hell out of the baseball too.
His low-80s slider has shown sweeping action and some quality depth when he
gets over the top of it. He’s also flashed a changeup that could ultimately
develop into a big weapon considering his release traits, but it’s a ways off.
He’s a player development dream, provided a clean bill of health.
It may be difficult for an organization to pay Russell first
round money this season unless he’s somehow able to log upwards of 40 innings.
It’s not impossible, however. In 2022, Oklahoma righty Cade Horton was selected
No. 7 overall in the Draft after pitching 53.2 innings coming off Tommy John
surgery. 44.2 of those innings came after the start of May. If Russell gets on
the mound at all this season, there’s a good chance his name is called in the
first two rounds. We’ve seen plenty of damaged starting pitcher prospects
selected in round two of late (Gunnar Hoglund, Jaden Hill, Landon Sims, Hunter
Barco, Peyton Pallette, Grant Taylor, Connor Prielipp, Jaxon Wiggins) to
suggest there’s a floor based on what he’s already shown.
1-22-25 –
Joe Doyle @JoeDoyleMiLB
Tennessee RHP A.J. Russell has 44.2 collegiate innings to his
name. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June. He ultimately might not pitch
this season. We'll see.
I'll die on this hill... He should be a Top 30 pick. Obscene
stuff and just scratching the surface
12-23-24 - Top 50 college baseball prospects for 2025
MLB draft, per D1Baseball
26 AJ Russell RHP
Tennessee
https://utsports.com/sports/baseball/roster/aj-russell/21079 -
2024
Returned from injury during the SEC Tournament against
Vanderbilt (5/22) and didn't allow a run in one inning of work.
Made his return to the mound against Alabama (3/17) after
missing the last two weekends with soreness and looked good in a short starting
stint, retiring the side in order in the second inning after giving up a run on
a pair of hits in the first and struck out two batters in his two innings of
work, as well
Tossed three scoreless innings in home debut vs. UAlbany
(2/23), striking our four while allowing three hits and one walk
Electric in his 2024 debut against #18Texas Tech (2/16) at
the Shriner’s College Showdown, striking out 10 batters and allowing just three
hits across 4.1 innings during a 3-2 victory
2023
Did not allow a hit and recorded one strikeout over 1.1
scoreless innings of relief in CWS elimination game vs. #3 LSU (6/20)
Appeared in UT’s first
game of the College World Series, retiring the lone batter he faced vs. #3 LSU
(6/17)
Allowed just one hit and struck out two batters during 1.1
innings against Texas A&M (5/23)
Struck out the side during the final inning of the
series-clinching win over #9 South Carolina (5/20)
Pitched twice in the series against #19 Kentucky on Friday
(5/12) and Sunday (5/14), totaling 2.1 innings and four punchouts while
allowing only one baserunner
Fantastic out of the bullpen at Georgia (5/7), tossing a
career-high 3.1 innings and striking out five while conceding just three hits
and one run against the Bulldogs
Picked up his second win against Wofford (5/2), going 2.1
innings and striking out five while not allowing a hit to the Terriers
Earned his first career win against Eastern Kentucky (4/11),
setting the Colonels down in order with a pair of Ks
Tossed 1.1 scoreless innings with two strikeouts against #3
Florida (4/6)
Pitched a flawless inning in relief during a combined shutout
victory over UNC Asheville (3/28)
Made his first career SEC appearance against Texas A&M
(3/26), retiring the only batter he faced
Threw a scoreless inning in relief against Lipscomb (3/14),
tallying three strikeouts
Made his first career start and retired all six batters he
faced against Charleston Southern (3/1), including two punchouts
Pitched in the first Friday-night home game against Dayton
(2/24), striking out five across 2.1 perfect innings of work
Impressed in his collegiate debut, pitching two scoreless
innings and striking out three while allowing just one hit to Alabama A&M
(2/21)
HIGH SCHOOL
Standout pitcher from Franklin High School in Franklin,
Tennessee, who helped lead the Admirals to the Class 3A state playoffs as a
junior in 2021
Rated as a Top 500 prospect nationally by Perfect Game and
the No. 14 overall player in the state of Tennessee
Named a Perfect Game Preseason All-American Honorable Mention
and Southeast All-Region team pick in 2021 and 2022
Earned four Perfect Game All-Tournament team honors during
his prep career, including the 2021 WWBA World Championship and the 2021 PG 17U
National Elite Championship
Named to 2022 Tennessean Large Class All-Midstate Team
Tabbed a 2021 Main Street Preps All-Midstate Team selection
Was dominant on the mound as a senior in 2022, going 6-1 with
a 1.14 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 49.1 innings of work
Had a breakout junior season in 2021, posting a 3-0 record
with a 0.63 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 44.1 innings pitched
Played club baseball for Knights Baseball
Also played soccer and basketball in high school
At 6-foot-6, 200 pounds, Tennessee freshman AJ Russell looks
like he was born to pitch a baseball. Watching Russell on the mound this spring
it’s easy to think Tony Vitello and the Vols beat out half the SEC for the former
Franklin High School standout.
However, Russell was anything but a high end recruit coming
out of high school. The second lowest rated recruit in Tennessee’s 2022 signing
class, Russell didn’t commit to the Vols until late in the recruiting process.
Armed with a self-deprecating nature, Russell’s “mind is
blown” by the role he’s earned out of Tennessee’s bullpen in his freshman
season. But as Tennessee opens postseason play at the SEC Tournament Tuesday
afternoon, the tall right-hander is eying even more.
Russell is one of the Vols’ biggest x-factors and he’s only
scratching the surface of what he can achieve.
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