Reese Kaplan -- Rolling the Dice at a Discount?

In the lull that exists just before the Winter Meetings begin let us today ponder the best way to address the center field vacancy.  Thus far the boy genius in the front office has brought us Harrison Bader overpaid for his .236 hitting which actually was an improvement on his previous season’s .232.  Then for 2025 he traded for a career .206 hitter in the soon injured Jose Siri. He ended his Mets career with a brief .063 bating average.  The his next move was the guy no one wanted (including his former employer in Baltimore), Cedric Mullins.  He was in between Bader and Siri, finishing his Mets career with a less than robust .217 average.

Going forward with the big gap out in center Stearns traded away one possibility in his Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien deal.  Given Nimmo’s recent defensive issues it is understandable to say that considering him as a center field option would not likely be the best move anyway.  However, his departure expanded the problem as the club now needs a left fielder as well.

Clearly the free agent path exists but at a very steep price tag not just for 2026 but also for whatever duration would be agreeable to the camps representing Cody Bellinger and Kyle Tucker.  While no one would complain if the Mets moved in either of these directions (except for the club’s accountants), the fact is that there are other options available via the trade market.

The biggest name in this direction would be the long time Minnesota Twins star Byron Buxton. No one disputes the man’s raw talent.  His 2025 season pretty much demonstrates what he is capable of delivering.  Not only does he provide Gold Glove level defense in center.  He also replaces the offense lost with Brandon Nimmo no longer part of the offensive mix.  

How good was he last year?  Buxton hit .264 with 35 HRs, 83 RBIs and tossed in 24 SBs for good measure.  For all that effort along with his stellar defense he was rewarded a nowadays modest $15.1 million.  He’s on tap for that same salary for the next three years taking him through his age 32 through 34 seasons after which the case could be made that he would be transitioning from his prime years to his latter ones.

The issue with Buxton has always been his fragile health.  He began his pro career as a rookie back in 2016.  In all that time since he has only twice eclipsed the 500 plate appearances total.  Think about that.  In 10 years during 8 of them he was not able to deliver full time performance.  For that reason many people are gun shy making Buxton a part of their roster.

Word has filtered out that Buxton is agreeable to waiving his no-trade clause which would open up prospective player riches that the Twins would receive if they find an acceptable partner with the resources to swap.  There is no question that the Mets have desirable pieces that could get this kind of deal done.

The question is would Stearns look shrewd or foolish to commit $45+ million and losing prospects to get three years of Buxton?  The alternative would be to pay an annual rate of about double what Buxton would earn and for many more years.  To give you an idea of how reasonable his rate is would suggest that Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil and others in the Mets recent history were paid even more. The Marte example is especially relevant as he provided just part time availability for three of the four years he played for the team.  

Is Buxton a gamble worth taking?