MACK - Top 28 Prospects - #1 - RHSP - Jonah Tong

 

The excitement about the Mets' prospect pipeline has been building year over year as the team improves their domestic and international scouting.  Many of the Mets' picks are being discussed throughout baseball, so Mack has boiled it down to the top 28 to give the readers a glimpse into the team's future.  This series will run for 28 days, counting down from #28 to #1.  The entire list can be viewed by clicking "2026 Top 28 Prospects" on the top menu bar.

One thing...

RHSP Nolan McLean is not on this list. Yes, he still is a prospect and is eligible for the Rookie Of The Year award, but I have "promoted" him past this level and is now a major league pitcher.

#1  -  Jonah Tong

GROK -

Jonah Tong is a 22-year-old right-handed starting pitcher for the New York Mets.

Born on June 19, 2003, in Markham, Ontario, Canada, he was selected by the Mets in the seventh round (209th overall) of the 2022 MLB Draft out of Georgia Premier Academy, signing for $226,000 instead of attending North Dakota State University.

At 6'1" and 180 pounds, Tong features a high over-the-top arm slot (64° in 2025, the highest among MLB starters), drawing frequent comparisons to Tim Lincecum due to his deceptive delivery and slight frame.

He made his MLB debut on August 29, 2025, against the Miami Marlins, striking out six over five innings in a win.

Tong's rapid rise saw him dominate the minors in 2025:

10-5 with a 1.43 ERA and 160 strikeouts (34.2% K-rate, tops among Mets farmhands) over 113⅔ innings before his call-up.

He threw a combined perfect game (6⅔ innings) at Double-A Binghamton on May 10, 2025, and went 2-0 with 17 strikeouts in 11⅔ scoreless Triple-A innings after promotion on August 11.

Pitch Repertoire

Tong's arsenal emphasizes north-south movement (pitches that rise or drop vertically), optimized by the Mets to fit his elite arm angle. His fastball and curveball form the core, with off-speed pitches added for balance against lefties. Here's a breakdown based on scouting reports and 2025 usage:

Four-Seam Fastball

93-96 (touches 98)

~50%

Elite "rising" action (+18 inches induced vertical break, top 5% in MLB); explosive carry with max extension for deception. Primary weapon for swings-and-misses up in the zone.

Curveball

78-82

~25%

12-6 hammer with extreme drop (17+ inches induced vertical movement, comparable to Max Fried or Yoshinobu Yamamoto); high spin rate for wipeout potential.

Changeup

85-88

~15% (added in 2025)

Filthy fade and tumble; improved vs. left-handed hitters (his second-most used pitch); generates weak contact.

Slider

84-87

~10%

Sweeper-style with lateral break; less emphasized but provides variety; horizontal movement to complement his vertical-heavy mix.

Tong's control has improved (3.4:1 K:BB ratio in 2024 minors), but MLB adjustments have highlighted command issues (e.g., 7 walks in 11⅔ IP early).

The Mets tweaked his fastball grip to a two-seam orientation for added depth without changing his release, enhancing its effectiveness. Overall, his stuff grades out as plus, with projection as a mid-rotation starter or high-leverage reliever by 2026 if command refines further. He's ranked as the Mets' No. 4 prospect (No. 2 pitcher) and No. 21 overall in MLB Pipeline's 2025 rankings.

 

10-23-25

Angry Mike/MM

Jonah Tong 

SCOUTING REPORT:

An uptick in Tong’s velocity was first noticed during the Spring Breakout Showcase in March, Tong flashed impressive upper 90s velocity which had not been seen before. His AAA debut was the first time I really noticed how much harder Tong was throwing, and what was really impressive was the fact the last 5 fastballs he threw had the same average velocity as the first 5 fastballs he threw, 96 MPH. 

Combining mid-high 90s velocity on his fastball with the elite I.V.B. will undoubtedly transform his 4-seamer from a 70 grade pitch into an 80 grade pitch in a year or two. As he continues to improve the ability to locate his 4-seamer, we will begin to see Tong duplicate the same dominant numbers from his 2025 minor league campaign, but this time wearing a Mets uniform.

As impressive as Tong’s fastball was during his 2025 season, his Vulcan changeup is what has most Tong supporters and baseball analysts truly on the edge of their seat. Prospect analysts who were tracking Tong’s starts noted his new Vulcan changeup had devastating potential, eerily similar to Devin Williams’ “Air Bender”, another Vulcan grip Changeup. His changeup was exhibiting elite traits, sharp fading action, elite metrics, and he was able to land it for strikes or use it to induce chance. The velocity range was 83-87 MPH, and it is a potential 65-70 scouting grade offering.

When a pitch generates ugly swings from a professional hitter, who don’t know it’s coming, that means it’s a nasty and a pitch hitters began to watch tape and prepare for. When a certain pitch produces ugly swings from professional hitters even though they have a good idea it’s coming, that means it deserves a nickname…

Tong still flashed the same above average curveball he used to dominate hitters during his 2024 campaign, that registered above average spin rates and over 60 inches of vertical break. He simply didn’t use his curveball as much as I thought he would during the 2025 season, and raising the pitch’s velocity will make it considerably harder for hitters to track its spin at the MLB level.

What I’d really like to see is Tong scrap his traditional slider for a sweeper. I think adding a pitch that offers sharp, horizontal break that is slightly slower than his changeup, and that has its on unique pitch shape that is loopier could be a devastating addition to his arsenal. Everything Tong throws for the most part attacks hitters on north to south trajectories, getting hitters to start worrying about pitches breaking east to west will make harder for them to anticipate what to expect and easier for them to guess wrong more often.

 

11-7-2025  -  Just Baseball

3. Jonah Tong – RHP – (MLB)

Height/Weight: 6’1″, 180 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 7th Round (209), NYM (2022) | ETA: 2026

Tong was the breakout arm in the Mets system for 2024, riding a nearly two tick leap with his fastball to a 3.03 ERA in 113 IP with a ridiculous 34% strikeout rate across mostly Low and High-A. The stuff was even better in 2025, catapulting Tong into the conversation with some of the better pitching prospects in the upper minors.

Arsenal

A unique, over-the-top release and slight cross-fire delivery make Tong an uncomfortable at-bat for hitters. Tong enjoyed another uptick with his fastball in 2025, now averaging 95 MPH the pitch plays up further for Tong as he averages more than 19 inches of induced vertical break from a release height slightly above six feet.

With the carry and deception, Tong dominates within the zone, generating elite whiff rates, while also getting chase at the top. An even bigger development than the uptick in velocity has been Tong’s changeup in 2025. Sitting in the mid-80s, the pitch is difficult to pick up out of his hand. It averages roughly 20 inches of total separation from the fastball, one of the highest marks in MiLB.

Tong’s downer curve ball in the upper 70s flashes above average, but his inconsistent feel for it makes it difficult to rely on. When he is able to locate it, it’s a strong third offering.

Tong made progress with a mid 80s slider in 2024, mostly utilizing it against righties with success, but he will tend to tug it glove side too frequently. The development of his changeup and effectiveness of it right on right has cut into the usage further and much like his curveball, Tong has really struggled to land it consistently.

Outlook

Yet another fastball uptick paired with what now could be a double plus changeup has elevated Tong significantly. When he’s on, there’s few arms in the minor leagues more effective and overpowering. He will need to find more consistency with his spin and overall command to reach his potential as a starter, still fighting to stay above an overall strike rate of 60%. He has middle-rotation upside, but there’s still some reliever risk with the right-hander.

 

11-30-2025

MLB Prospects to Watch as Potential Centerpieces in Winter Meetings Trades

RHP Jonah Tong, New York Mets

B/R Prospect Rank: No. 3 NYM, No. 34 MLB

Stats (AA/AAA): 22 GS, 1.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 47 BB, 179 K, 113.2 IP

Scouting Report: Despite making his MLB debut on Aug. 29 and spending the rest of the season in the majors, Tong still led all minor league pitchers with 179 strikeouts.

He has an elite fastball, plus changeup and a high-spin curve, all delivered from an over-the-top arm slot that is reminiscent of Tim Lincecum.

Tong had a 7.71 ERA in 18.2 innings in the majors, but he flashed upside with 22 strikeouts and a more palatable 4.31 FIP.

Why He Could Be Traded: The Mets have three exciting young arms in Tong, Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat, but it's unlikely they will trust all three to hold down rotation spots in 2026.

With the front office clear in win-now mode, that could mean flipping one of those arms to address a need elsewhere, like center field.

 

12-6-2025

Angry Mike/MM

Mets phenom Jonah Tong’s delivery does resemble former #SFGiants Tim Lincecum’s delivery, but there are notable differences that will help Tong avoid the same medical issues that ultimately shortened Lincecum’s career:

Tong is bigger and a better athlete than Lincecum, standing 6’1 | 180+ lbs, compared to to Lincecum: 5’11 | 170 lbs.

Scouts noted Tong’s muscular lower half, enables natural power generation, without max effort, enhancing durability, reducing wear & tear, and allows for repeatable mechanics.

This is why Tong is able to deliver his 95-99 MPH fastball with relative ease and low effort.

A stark contrast to Lincecum’s max effort, explosive and whippy pitching motion that relied on an intense full-bodied twist & torque to generate peak velocity, which in turn increased strain on his hips, shoulders, and elbows.

Tong’s mechanics also has smoother sequencing, with a grounded foot rotation for better alignment, reducing effort and torque, lowering injury risk from overuse or misalignment.

Efficient sequencing allows Tong to ascertain elite extension, almost 7 feet, a repeatable load, leg lift, and torso tilt, that’s more sustainable & repeatable than Lincecum’s mechanics.

Tong’s mechanics reduce valgus stress (force applied to a joint, that pushes it inward) and external rotation risks, which were directly tied to Lincecum’s career-ending injuries.

Pitching carries an inherent risk that is unavoidable, but to declare Tong’s mechanics as a red flag simply because it resembles a previous pitcher’s mechanics, simply isn’t true.

That’s why trading a premier talent like Tong based on inaccurate research would be a colossal mistake.

 

1-17-2026

RVH/MM

Jonah Tong — The Breakout

Arrival: Early September

Role: Strikeout weapon, late-season jolt

Tong’s rise was the most dramatic.

2025 Minor League Dominance

MiLB Pitching Prospect of the Year

ERA: ~1.43 across 113+ innings

K Rate: At times exceeding 15 K/9

Fastball: ~95 mph with elite vertical break

Secondary: 12–6 curveball, improving changeup

Tong forced the issue. He wasn’t next on the depth chart. He was simply too good to ignore.