2/27/26

Reese Kaplan -- Is David Stearns Baseball Similar to the de Roulet Era?


Back in the de Roulet days Mets fans and sportswriters watched in horrid frustration as the team would bypass prime trade candidates and free agent opportunities to push the youngsters and AAAA players through the system in the hopes that one or more of them would catch fire and provide greater value than was anticipated.

Sometimes that approach actually worked.  No one thought much of the addition of Rick Reed to the pitching staff when it happened and instead focused on his picket-line crossing when he needed to buy a home for his soon to be destitute family who were losing their home due to ongoing medical expenses from his uninsured mother who suffered from diabetes.

Unfortunately, if you want to go in the other direction you can fill several rosters of great hopefuls who never fulfilled the best of what coaches and ownership fantasized about happening on the ballfield.  For every Lenny Randle there were numerous others who demonstrated why they’d not only never played in the All Star game but never even amounted to major league regulars in their other baseball employment. 

Things got a bit better during the Wilpon era when real ballplayers arrived and towards that end it was somewhat more parallel to what Steve Cohen did during his ownership.  We all remember the arrivals of credible ballplayers and promotion of solid prospects who did contribute to winning records in many of that era’s seasons.

Right now, however, the Mets fans are trying very hard to be optimistic and excited about all the new faces on the roster as the club progresses towards the start of the 2026 season.  Right now Bo Bichette is showing growing pains at 3rd base.  Jorge Polanco has not yet shown anything at 1st base though he’s allegedly consulting now broadcaster Keith Hernandez about what he needs to do to field the position.  Those roles are well covered and at this point the general consensus is that it’s too soon to panic as there is more than a month to go before the season begins.


However, the de Roulet flashback has taken hold over how other positions are being addressed.  While everyone this side of David Stearns is holding out hope that rookie Carson Benge can catapult himself over a dismal showing in AAA to take over right field, the alternatives are not all that enticing.  Mike Tauchman hit a big home run in his first game for the Mets but putting all your eggs into a 35 year old basket of a AAAA level player with a career .246 batting average is not exactly setting off celebrations.  He’s never had a 500 AB season in his long career.  Ugh.

Behind him you have a younger but even less capable MJ Melendez who flamed out with the Royals.  Yes, his minor league numbers are intriguing, but after having struggled for parts of four seasons, averaging 17 HRs and 54 RBIs per 500 ABs accompanied by a .215 career batting average.  As a 4th outfielder he’s a candidate, but as a starter?  Really?   

While many late preseason additions are being made it would appear that unless they really are going to bum rush Benge into starting they have little on the back burners as substitutes.  They could pivot to the never before outfielder in Brett Baty, but that would then make for three very unknown defensive question marks in the starting lineup. 

Of course, the DH question is very much the same.  As of now will it be Baty?  Will it be Mark Vientos?  Will it be a platoon?  Will they find this year’s over-the-hill DH candidate in free agency?  Andrew McCutchen is still out there are are a handful of former Mets in Starling Marte, Tommy Pham, and Jesse Winker.  They missed out on the minor league contract addition of Michael Conforto, but there you go.  Sitting and waiting while doing nothing of substance has not exactly worked wonders for the upcoming season.

7 comments:

Les Elkins said...

It seems someone has a negative outlook on the upcoming season. It is still a little early for such dire forcasts.

Tom Brennan said...

Sunday is March 1. All will be clear (as mud) by then.

McLean dominated yesterday. A great early sign.

FWIW, Fangraphs estimates LAD #1 in wins (96), Atlanta #2 (89 wins), and the Mets #3 in wins (88). Phillies 86, Marlins 75, Nats 69. So they seem optimistic on the Mets.

Since the worst FG team (Rockies) are projected at 66-96, it is clear that FG compresses its range a bit (96 wins best, 96 losses worst), so I’d add 3-4 wins to the Mets 88, and say 91-92. I won’t complain excessively with that.

Tom Brennan said...

To add to my last comment, by Sept 2026 many prospects will have fully ripened, some well before then. Benge, Tong, Santucci, Wenninger, Ewing, Clifford, Reimer, Morabito all ready if they stay healthy. And of course Lambert and Ross. That is ten almost definites by September.

RVH said...

Way too pessimistic. They are spending 360M in payroll & have better depth than they’ve had in years. 93 wins minimum this year.

They need to have spots for ready prospects to play. Tauchman is a great example of a smart side piece. Extra insurance. Mauricio will likely be the OD SS if Lindor not ready. Benge will have a solid rookie year whether or not he is on OD roster.

Ye of little faith!

Jules C-- The Cautious Optimist said...

My wife has often said of me, 'often wrong, but always confident'. It's only mildly unfair. Most baseball organizations lack confidence in their ability to project, which, as I have argued, leads to poor trades and too many bad and costly free agent signings. Fans don't suffer the consequences of poor projections, so there is nothing preventing confidence -- warranted or otherwise -- in projections. There is something to be said for trying to understand what the organization's overall strategy is and trying to determine how much of it they are able to put into action -- given a wide range of constraints.

It's a mistake to think Stearns hasn't done anything or that he is sitting on his hands waiting (for Godot?). As far as the outfield goes, they have one superstar in LF, two of the best defensive CF in the game in center, and a competition in right, featuring one of their leading prospects, who has worked his way through the system quickly and impressively, but, who may need further seasoning. Also competing is a journeyman who has performed to league median levels at this point, and others, who in my view fall a notch below that, either offensively or defensively (or both).
Key point is: if Benge doesn't make OD roster, Tauchman is a more than credible placeholder until he is. What would be the point of making a trade for a RF now. Check the waiver wire later and see if there is someone better than Tauchman who appears. That's not sitting on his hands; that's rationally refusing to force an issue that is inconsistent with the optionality component of the overall strategy.
I feel similarly about the infield. Of course there are question marks, but not as many as you think Reece. How many better hitting 3B are there in BB than Bichette? How many better overall SS are there in baseball than Lindor? How many better fielding 2B are there in baseball than Semien? Bichette's offense more than makes up for his shortcomings defensively; and Semien is a declining presence at the plate but smart and an overall high level contributor in stabilizing the team. 1B defense is a question mark for sure as of now. In my mind, we have 3 current options there in Polanco, Baty and Vientos. Picking up anyone else on more than a one year deal again reduces optionality going forward, as Clifford should be ready by next year, as might Reimer. And if Mauricio isn't subbing for Lindor right now he could be developing 1B skills as well. We aren't looking to answer every question now, especially if doing so is more costly to the overall plan. The team we are starting the season with is unlikely to be the team we end the season with. The team we start with is almost entirely in camp now. The team we end with may or may not be. That depends on how the season unfolds. I don't ask myself, how many wins can this team manage, not just because I don't know, though I don't. I don't ask that question because I don't know now what the various different components of the team will be over the course of the season: Of the many possible combinations of players that are in camp now of which the OD roster will be comprised, I am pretty confident that they make for a good unit to start the season with

Tom Brennan said...

Jeff McNeil on base 5 of 7 times so far. West Coast Squirrel.

Tom Brennan said...

Yankees have 15 HR and 52 RBI in 7 games. Meanwhile, Mark Vientos is a walloping 0-for-10 on the spring after going hitless again Thursday…but he did make a pair of solid plays at first base. I may start calling him Tentative Mark. Hopefully I don’t end up calling him Missed the Mark.