Reese Kaplan -- A Look at the 6 Men For a 5 Man Rotation

Many people are talking about the Mets starting rotation going into 2026.  As it sits right now (assuming both Christian Scott and Jonah Tong start the season in Syracuse) you still have six pitchers for five openings.  Freddy Peralta, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Sean Manaea and rookie Nolan McLean are all vying to take the mound every fifth day.  The question is who gets the designation as the 6th starter/long man out of the bullpen?

Obviously Peralta and Holmes are slated to be regular starters after the former’s All Star level performance and the latter’s successful transition from reliever to starter.  Nolan McLean is about as sure a thing as you can write down today after his totally dominating September debut.  So it would appear that three of the six spots are already nailed down.

Now here’s where it starts to get a bit more interesting.  In the “ride the hot hand” category you have David Peterson who has shown the ability to begin a year with dominating stuff and then more often than not lose his way as the season progresses.  Having a big lefty who can pitch to a below 3.50 ERA for the first few months is very appealing not only for how it will help in the race for the pennant but also to increase his trade value as a free agent to be when the season ends.  If you feel he is not going to be a part of the Mets future after this season ends then showing him at his very best makes sense.

After that you have Sean Manaea, thus far one of the poorer free agent deals under David Stearns’ leadership.  He was flat out awful for the period in 2025 when he was healthy enough to play.  A lot has been written about his arm angle being off and how working with the off season laboratory has helped him adjust to return to the techniques that turned him into a winning hurler in 2024 which led to his $75 million free agent deal the following year.  As much as we hate to admit it, paycheck size often dictates playing time so you would think that Manaea is likely pitcher number five.

That evaluation leads us to the man on the outside looking in.  Once again meet Kodai Senga.  His career ERA in the major leagues is just 3.00 over 52 starts during which he threw 285 innings and whiffed 320.  You’d think on the surface he would be at the top of this list of three alternative starters, but his injury history and his less than stellar output during 2025 has many people ready to kick him to the curb.  Even when the club refused to allow him up from Syracuse for the final ill fated September push towards October baseball his final numbers for that season were just a 3.02 ERA.  It’s not as if he was pitching to a 5.64 ERA like Manaea was, but Stearns’ ego and judgment are on the line when it comes to the lefty but less so when it comes to the Billy Eppler inked Senga.   He could still be a late spring trade candidate.

Of course, behind these top six starting pitchers are the ones getting seasoning and health in AAA.  It would appear that going into the 2026 season the Mets are in better shape pitching-wise than they were last year.  Then again, that conclusion surmises health and competence.  Still, the potential to be very good is indeed there.