If you gather together your fellow Mets fans these days there is a lot of enthusiasm for Spring games about to begin, consternation about the decline in offense from 2025 and the enthusiam about the health and ability of the pitchers starting games and relieving them. The back and forth of the fans called to mind my old days of playing fantasy baseball and some of the calculations done then to achieve a winning combination of players to catapult yourself to the top of the Roto league.
Going way back into the pre-metrics days of the 1980s when we only used traditional totals like batting average, home runs, RBIs and stolen bases it was a bit simpler to make personnel decisions. Where fantasy leagues differ immensely from the major leagues (at least until there is a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) achieved after the 2026 season ends is the salary cap. That wrinkle made it much more interesting to examine how people filled out their rosters.
Without going into an excruciating level of minute detail, suffice to say that a squad full of 20 HR/80 RBIs hitters is not in aggregate very expensive and is a valid approach compared to the folks who dumped 25% or more of their salary budget on each superstar who might or might not deliver what is expected (or might not remain healthy). As a result, you had many folks who got the best of the best for say two of their offensive openings and then filled out the rest of their roster with hopeful projects or Nth level performers as it was all they could afford. If you still used these simple metrics it was pretty easy to multiply 20*8 to get to 160 HRs for the former approach as well as 20*80 to get to 1600 RBIs. The flip side might get 70-80 HRs from their two superstars as well as potentially 200 RBIs but then the rest were major question marks.
Fast forward to today and the metrics explosion has given us a great many other ways to measure the value of ballplayers. For folks who don’t delve into a few of them, let’s look at a few definitions. One valuable measurement is called WRC+. The formula is:
wRC+ = (((wRAA/PA + League R/PA) + (League R/PA – Park Factor* League R/PA))/ (AL or NL wRC/PA excluding pitchers))*100
Some clarity:
wRAA — Weighted Runs Above Average — Weighted Runs Created/Runs
League R/PA — League Runs/Plate Appearances
Park Factor — a value given to the ease or difficulty of performing in a given stadium
Using this mathematical formula it is theoretically possible to evaluate the run producing capability of one player versus another taking into account his work and factoring in the effects of his ballpark. Colorado Rockies players, for example, often have inflated numbers whereas Seattle Mariners players often see them skew in the other direction.
A slightly less sophisticated but equally valid measurement for a player’s production capability is OPS — On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage aggregated into a single number. This simpler statistic is valid but like the one above really tends to value power hitters and high RBI hitters more than speed demons who add value with their legs nor contact hitters with high batting averages who don’t necessarily put the ball over the wall or drive in a lot of runs.
All of this discussion brings us full circle back to whether the 2026 Mets are a better offensive tam than the disassembled one from 2025. Big power and RBI numbers left with Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo. Potential high batting averages left with Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte.
Now think ahead to what Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco provide compared to the middle-of-the-order hitters no longer here. On a simple level Alonso and Nimmo combined for 63 HRs and 218 RBIs. That’s a lot to match.
Using their best-ever season (which don’t account for the Citifield Park Factor) you would have Bichette and Polanco providing 62 HRs and 200 RBIs. At first glance it doesn’t seem that far off from what has gone, though Alonso’s HR numbers were a bit down for 2025 and Nimmo’s RBI total was an all time best.
Then it gets interesting. Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte combined for 21 HRs and 88 RBIs. Neither were full time 550 AB players but they are indeed the best of who left.
Now the Mets have added Marcus Semien who in an injury plagued 2025 provided 15 HRs and 62 RBIs in fewer than 500 ABs. The as yet unknown right fielder should be able to provide similar or better numbers so that combined they provide more than the former Mets they replace.
To be fair you could factor in the unknown DH role with Brett Baty or Mark Vientos as current possibilities. While there are certainly some great unknowns for 2026 (particularly on defense) it may be that the current roster is a bit more competitive with the former one than originally surmised.
10 comments:
Clutch hitting is a factor. And HR and RBI totals are partly a function of batting order position and heavily a function of number of games played. Simply, if Pete played 162 and hit clean up, he can’t be directly numerically compared to a guy like Bichette, who played 140 and didn’t hit clean up.
Some HRs and RBIs also come when a team is way ahead, or way behind. Kind of like an NBA shooting guard nailing 4 late 3 pointers when his team had trailed by 35.
Bo Bichette in 2025 hit .381 with RISP and .325 in late and close. Those numbers are awesome.
Bo had 36 RBIs in 40 games as a clean-up hitter, and was .372/.422/.585 in the #4 slot in 2025. Dang.
Wow! A great article! But, it isn’t fair to just use a player’s best years, we need to use a larger sample of the say, the three latest years. Too, Nimmo and Alonso are trending up but rather treading down and there would have been many years of commitment to chase those numbers. That must be factored in.
Pete Alonso led baseball in runners on base when he hit.
Gus, that is why stats can be deceiving. Maybe if Bichette had that many runners on base and played 162 games, and not 140, he drives in 140.
I would love to see the Mets have more hits with RISP this year. That has been a traditional frustration for Mets fans.
A new hitting coach and a strategy wrapped around the ABS modifications will also help the Mets swing at better pitches and deliver more in the clutch.
This analysis exactly demonstrates the details behind the new Mets approach. Much better odds of making contact & moving the lineup. It’s very different, so we will see how it plays out.
The former core had some great players & moments for everyone who follows this team. It is tough to say goodbye. The reality, they had 5 yers to prove thy could win consistently & they could not. No across years or within every season (even ‘24 team struggled until June).
Can’t wait to see them start playing TOMMORROW!
LGM!
Our Genius GM has made so make mistakes this year in trying to show his worth, that the Mets will pay for years down the line.
First he breaks the core to open up what we all thought was positions for the high profile minor leaguers. Then he decides to bring in veterans in Semien and Polanco effectively shelving either Baty or Vientos.
Our GM wanted to this in order to make the defense up the middle better because defense became important. So since it is important, he brings in Bichette because now defense is not important. Now both Baty and Vientos are blocked.
He then brings in the great Luis Robert Jr. because we did not learned anything with Taylor, Jose Siri, Mullins. Lets see how long before he gets hurt. Now Benge is possibly blocked since he has also brought in a bunch of players on minor league deals.
Will Peralta be worth Sproat and Jett?
Viper, Stearns acquiring Bichette kept the Phillies from getting him, so that could help them win WC or Division and keep the Follies out. Thoughts?
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