Paul Articulates – Spring Training in perspective

Spring training is the first baseball that most people have seen since the fall (unless you live in the Dominican or Venezuela).  So it is natural that we as fans become very focused on every player and every stat for these first few weeks of the baseball year.  It is also very natural that we begin to judge those players on their ability to make the club win.

I would never try to temper your enthusiasm, but in this post, I would like to put some perspective on what we are seeing this spring.

It is not about the numbers.

First of all, numbers mean nothing right now.  Baseball stats need large numbers to be significantly significant.  There are many variables that affect statistics so a couple of good (or bad) weeks in the numbers does not characterize a player for the season.  That doesn’t mean the initial stats can’t be looked at, but they have to be understood in context.  If a batter is hitting the cover off the ball and has a handful of “at-em’s”, it could skew their numbers by 100 points.  What is important is the context and that is exactly what the coaching staff is looking at.  Are they taking a good approach at the plate; are they adjusting to the pitches they are seeing; are they showing solid swing mechanics?  

Are Carson Benge’s .367 average and .836 OPS meaningful?  Of course.  He is passing the eye test as well as putting up good numbers.  He is hitting in the clutch and he is tracking line drives and he can throw the ball like a seed.  Carson Benge is winning a spot with his play and his athleticism.  The numbers are a bonus.

Give it time.

The second item of perspective is that spring training is a time to work on skills.  That may be a new pitch, a new position, or learning to hit the ball to a certain field.  When you are working on something new, expect to fail often as the kinks are worked out.  The coaching staff knows what people are working on and they are evaluating how that works.  This leads to a higher tolerance for error.  As a fan, you may be upset that a player is not getting the results expected from the back of their baseball card.  But the coaches are looking for that additional skill that will eventually make that card better – just not yet.  This is particularly true for pitchers.  If a pitcher is developing a new pitch, it is likely that until it is refined, there will be more walks, more hits, even more runs given up.  Only the pitcher, catcher, and pitching coach really know how that development is going and whether it will carry into the season.  Those interim results will not be used to judge value to the team if all the other skills are still intact.

See the business side.

The third piece of perspective, and probably the most difficult to accept, is that the Mets are trying out quite a few prospects at the same time as quite a few veterans that were brought in on one-year deals.  The “business” side of baseball comes into play here, so if a prospect outplays a veteran, they may still not win the job.  A prospect with options can spend a little more time being seasoned in the minors while a veteran with no options either has to make the roster or face a DFA.  Example: AJ Ewing has looked fantastic and showed that he belongs.  But Mike Tauchman also looked like a solid contributor that should be on the team.  Given the number of outfielders vying for a slot, it may be easy to say Ewing starts the year in Syracuse even though he may be a bigger part of the long-term picture.

I am very excited by what I have seen so far in spring training.  Some of the young guys we have been writing about are really showing well, some of the bets that David Stearns placed on veteran free agents are looking promising, and many of the players we are depending on to perform at a high level are showing signs of just that.  With a long season in front of us, there will be slumps, streaks, and surprises.  With a little luck and a lot of hard work, we may be celebrating a great season.  It is just too early to lock that in.