A couple of weeks ago I made the outrageous claim that not only will the Mets win the NL East but will do so with a comfortable margin. In fact, I stated that they would wind up with the second best record in baseball trailing only the Dodgers.
The main competitions to the NL East title are the Phillies and the Braves. Neither the Marlins nor the Nats are expected to be in the mix. The question posed is how well do we match against our two major opponents. The chart below shows my projected match up and why the Mets will prevail.
|
Mets |
Rating |
Phillies |
Rating |
Braves |
Rating |
|||
|
C |
Alvarez |
6.25 |
Realmuto |
4.5 |
Baldwin |
5.5 |
||
|
1B |
Baty |
5.00 |
Harper |
5.75 |
Olson |
6.75 |
||
|
2B |
Semien |
4.75 |
Scott |
6.50 |
Albies |
6.25 |
||
|
SS |
Lindor |
7.00 |
Turner |
7.00 |
Dubon |
4.00 |
||
|
3B |
Bichette |
7.25 |
Bohm |
6.00 |
Riley |
6.00 |
||
|
LF |
Soto |
7.75 |
Marsh |
4.50 |
Yastrzemski |
5.25 |
||
|
CF |
Robert |
5.00 |
Crawford |
4.75 |
Harris |
5.00 |
||
|
RF |
Benge |
4.75 |
Garcia |
4.25 |
Acuna |
7.50 |
||
|
DH |
Polanco |
5.50 |
Schwarber |
6.50 |
Murphy |
4.50 |
||
|
53.25 |
49.75 |
50.75 |
||||||
I figure the Phillies and the Mets have starting pitching staffs that are close to being equal. The Braves, on the other hand, have suffered significant injuries that will impact their season. In my opinion, the Phillies are an aging team that will likely incur injuries to key players. There’s a good chance that players such as Realmuto, Harper and Schwarber miss significant time. I’m assuming Benge is on the opening day roster. If not, I’d have to rethink my projections. I’ m also assuming Baty is the logical person to play first. Polanco is the best choice as the DH. Nothing else makes sense.
I expect our bench matches up well with the other two teams. My main concern is the bullpen. I have no idea how well we will perform this year. Early in the season, the pen will be decisive since the team will be fortunate to get more than 5-6 innings out of Senga, Holmes, Peterson and Manaea. Hopefully, Peralta and McLean provide some length to save the pen.
I’m hoping for a more mature Mendoza to manage the Mets deep into the playoffs. However, if the team does get off to a sluggish start, don’t be surprised to see a managerial change.
Ray
March 21,
2026
7 comments:
Hopefully, your stats are correct and we win the Division…and then, of course, the World Series. 40 years is enuf.
Interesting exercise Ray. I have said that the Mets will run away with this division because:
1. The Phillies’ rotation is missing some key contributors.
2. The Phillies are getting older and I don’t see Schwarber doing anything this year. The Pirates will be so glad he took Philadelphia's offer.
3. The Mets have more firepower.
I completely agree with Polanco as full time DH and capacity to spell at various positions around infield as necessary. You should never make two positions worse when the alternative is to have one very strong and the other average. Frankly, the only reason I see the Mets even toying with the alternative is because they have become foolishly wedded to seeing if they can get more out of Vientos and the only place for him is as DH. They are losing sight of the big picture here. I imagine they are going to keep Bujan on the opening day roster now that they have optioned Mauricio which is smart because Mauricio needs to be playing every day including reps at 1st base. He should not be traded as he and Baty must be available in case Bichette opts out. I actually see a potential trading deadline trade for Skubal headlining Tong and Clifford.
When it comes to Vientos, they are playing him every day in the hopes of his either breaking out or his increasing his non-existent trade value.. You have to cut your losses even wishing the person well going forward even on another team. it's ok and much better than weakening your team because you aren't willing to give up on someone. He actually doesn't even fit into the style of team they are trying to put together, so it really makes no sense. They have Reimer behind him, Baty in front of him and several other players farther down in the minors who can hit with some power and actually play a position. There is no point in keeping him. you have to realize that positions on the major league roster are rare assets.
I am also not wild about Mendoza, and I think he understated all the ways in which he fell short last year. We shall see. He's got an excellent coaching staff
You and that Optimist guy oughta get a room
There are many reasons that Mendoza needs to evolve as a manager this year. He is capable, the need is there, so get to it!
I am going to give Mendoza the benefit of the doubt. Only bad managing keeps us from having a great season.
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