Alex Rubinson - It Might be Time to Retire the Fastball Freddy Nickname

After coming into the league, Freddy Peralta quickly claimed the nickname Fastball Freddy. The former Milwaukee Brewer has been known for his electric fastball and is the pitch that has defined his career. In his first few starts, Peralta has been a serviceable starter for the Mets rotation, pitching to a 3.86 ERA. His production has been solid, but one could argue he’s been a tad bit disappointing considering he was tasked with being the team’s ace in 2026. Despite what his raw uninspiring numbers might suggest, there should be plenty of optimism that the hurler will turn things around, and it’s not due to the pitch that has been his calling card.

Anything needs to be taken with a grain of salt this early in the season, so of course these trends could fizzle out this time next month, but it does bear watching. In his first four starts to begin the season, Peralta is still relying heavily on his four-seamer, throwing it nearly 50% of the time, while his changeup and curveball make up for the majority of the remaining half of his pitches. Peralta should do what makes him comfortable and confident, but if the recent trends continue, it might be time to tweak his arsenal. 

Currently, Peralta has a pitching run value of three, good to be in the 80th percentile. Although his fastball contributes a plus one, his offspeed run value is an impressive plus three (his breaking stuff is below average at negative one). His offspeed run value is in the 97th percentile of all major league pitchers. Hitters are currently batting a disgusting .091 against his changeup. That low number also represents the slugging percentage against that pitch. Maybe things will even out as the weather warms up and we get a larger sample size, but if opponents were slugging .091 against one particular pitch, wouldn’t you convince the pitcher to increase its usage?

Again, one can argue that the sample is too small, but the expected numbers back it up as well. Sure, the expected batting average climbs all the way up to .170, but it still does show that he should be throwing his changeup more than a quarter of the time. These expected numbers are due to hitters not being able to square it up. Currently, Peralta’s changeup has manufactured an average exit velocity of 78 MPH and a launch angle of six. That is less than half of the launch angle of his four-seam fastball. He has given up two singles on the pitch with no extra-base hits to begin the year on his changeup. 

In addition to making the changeup more of a primary pitch, he might be underutilizing his curveball as well. The numbers don’t stand out nearly as much, and I don’t think Peralta should be dramatically increasing the number of curveballs thrown unlike his changeup, but the metrics show Peralta’s curveball should improve with a large sample size. As of now, his .471 opponent slugging on the curveball will give fans and pitchers pause when tossing that pitch, but his expected slugging is nearly 200 points lower at .280. Among his three main pitches in his repertoire, his curveball has the largest whiff rate at over 35%. Meanwhile, his fastball sits seven percent lower and is the lowest of his three main pitches. Similarly to the slugging percentage, opponents have a wOBA of .352 versus the curveball, but the xwOBA is much lower at .276. 

Now that we broke down how Peralta’s secondary stuff might actually be better than what his nickname would suggest, let’s discuss that famous fastball he has. His fastball is still a good pitch. His fastball run value is still in the 68th percentile, which is good, but it’s probably not as elite as one would think given his reputation. We actually see the reverse pattern with his fastball. His .257 opponent batting average ..371 slugging are solid numbers, but the underlying statistics show that as the weather warms up and the ball starts flying farther, those numbers might inflate. 

His expected opponent’s average is nearly 30 points higher and the expected slugging checks in at almost .460. It’s also not super encouraging that the xWOBA against that pitch is slightly over .375. These numbers certainly don’t scream ace of a world series contender. 

With Peralta throwing his fastball far more often than his other pitches, it’s fair to give that pitch the benefit of the doubt, but with how dominant his changeup has been and how the curveball has worked as well, it is fair to wonder if someone needs to get in Peralta’s ear and tell him to tweak his repertoire. 

Finally, I did want to touch on his slider. He has thrown the pitch a grand total of two dozen times this season. We can take away anything remotely meaningful from such a tiny sample. It is a pitch that fans should keep an eye on. He has not surrendered a hit on the pitch and has recorded a strikeout. The nearly 86% whiff rate is certainly due to the lack of times throwing it, but it is certainly worth seeing if that pitch can play at a high level when working it more into your arsenal.

I already touched on how his curveball is a really solid pitch, but Peralta does have a negative run value on his breaking stuff. Although I don’t expect that to continue, the implementation of a slider just to give hitters another pitch to think about should not only help his breaking ball numbers, but it can have a positive effect on every other pitch as well. As long as he is comfortable with his arsenal, a new pitch should only help keep hitters off balance. 

Fastball Freddy was one of the biggest additions the Mets made this past offseason. David Stearns knows Peralta as well as anyone from their time in Milwaukee together. He figured he was getting a bonafide ace and frontline starter. As the season continues through its early stages, that still might be the case, but if Peralta is going to take his game to new heights, it might be time to tinker with his sequencing. After all, hitters game plan knowing they have a 50% chance of getting on the heater, so they can sit on it. Imagine if that was no longer the case. Maybe it truly is solely because of the sample size, but for Justin Willard and company, it is definitely something worth exploring.