MLB released its first update on its 2026 All-Star voting on Monday with the first round of voting set to close a week from today. After the first round ends, the top two players at each position (six in the outfield) will move onto the finalist round.
With the All-Star Game about a month away, I will use this as a reminder that every one of the 30 teams must be represented. With the New York Mets sitting well below .500 as one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the National League team will not be littered with players from Queens.
As it stands right now, it feels very clear that Juan Soto will be the team’s lone representative in the midsummer classic, but how does the $765 million man compare to his competition in the NL outfield?
Soto currently ranks ninth in NL voting among outfielders, so he would fail to qualify for the final round of voting. Andy Pages, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Brandon Marsh are the leaders as of today with Michael Harris II, Teoscar Hernández and Jordan Walker rounding out the top six (James Wood and Corbin Carroll also are ahead of Soto). As usual, fans have gotten a couple of things correct, but it’s also clear that the voting process is still a popularity contest.
Despite missing time due to injury, Soto is having a very on brand season. The left-handed slugger is posting a .290/.389/.555 slash line. His .944 OPS is second among all NL outfielders. Based on that alone, Soto should certainly be in the top six in voting and potentially crack the starting lineup. Of course, the only player ahead of Soto in OPS is the man he was traded for in Wood. As mentioned above, Wood would also fail to even qualify for the final round in the fan vote.
Soto might be getting penalized by his lack of games played. The corner outfielder has only appeared in 55 games. Although that’s not terrible, the vast majority of players ahead of him in the voting have been around or above 70 games played. Acuña Jr. is the outlier, having only appeared in 53 contests.
If Acuña Jr. is second in voting, Soto should be right there with him and not be penalized with lack of games played. In fact, it’s even more impressive that Soto is tied with Pages in HRs among NL outfielders with 15. Only Ian Happ, Walker and the aforementioned Wood are ahead of Soto in that category.
I don’t think players should be elevated or penalized based on the team they play for, but Soto’s numbers stand out even more when considering how disappointing the Mets offense has been. As New York has dealt with numerous injuries as well, Soto has not enjoyed any protection in the lineup.
Soto’s patient approach has gone a long way towards his overall offensive output this season. Despite missing time due to injury, Soto is still eighth in walks among outfielders in his league. He has walked more than he has struck out, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, but it really is put in perspective when compared to the seven players ahead of him. Wood has the most walks among NL outfielders but has nearly 100 strikeouts on the season.
Even with the large strikeout numbers, it’s clear that Wood should be one of the starting outfielders when the NL takes the field in Philadelphia next month, but who should be awarded the other two spots? For the purposes of cutting down the field, let’s just take a look at the other eight in the voting update.
Although he has the glamour and is currently tracking to cruise to the next round, I think we can rule out Acuña Jr. among players who should be in contention to start the All-Star Game and the same can be said for Hernández, who is currently on the injured list. Maybe, I am just being too nice and wanting someone to gain recognition for a breakout performance, but Walker’s breakout year is deserving of locking down one of the other slots.
The St. Louis Cardinals late bloomer has the most hits among NL outfielders with an OPS north of .900. Hits and RBI might be things of the past, but Walker is the biggest reason St. Louis has been one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball. His baseball savant page is more red than the Cardinals’ city connect jerseys.
That leaves just one more spot, and I’m going to rule out Pages. The Dodgers outfielder has been a huge boost with Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker struggling mightily. He is tied with Walker when it comes to driving in runs, and definitely is deserving to make it as a reserve, but his slash line doesn’t compare favorably to the other top contenders. For most voters, people might lean towards Carroll, who is very deserving, but my last vote would go in an unorthodox direction.
Mets fans might kill me for saying this, but I would actually lean towards Harris II. Harris II is currently hitting north of .300 with 14 bombs. I don’t have a problem with Soto grabbing the spot over the Braves centerfielder, but Harris has a nice balance of contact and power. Plus, he is in the 95th percentile in outs above average (it also doesn't hurt that Harris II can be the NL's centerfielder). Harris II is probably not the popular choice and doesn’t have the OPS numbers, but he has been a huge reason Atlanta has not missed a beat despite Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin being forced to miss time.
The reserves in the NL will also be fascinating. Soto deserves to be one of them independent of likely being the Mets’ lone representative. After Soto, I would give the edge to Carroll and Marsh. Carroll currently has 35 extra-base knocks (including eight triples).
I also went with Marsh because his .324 average is refreshing in the year 2026. You could make the case that Jung Hoo Lee of the Giants is just as deserving due to an even higher average, but I gave Marsh the tiebreaker due to his OPS being over 40 points higher. If the NL does carry a seventh outfielder (they did so last year), Pages would be my pick. Pages had a great start to the year but has since cooled off. He is tied with Walker for the most RBI in all of baseball, but that is also aided by hitting behind Shohei Ohtani.
The NL outfield is arguably the deepest position on the ballot this summer. That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given the overall strength of the NL compared to the AL. Even if the Mets had multiple All-Star selections, Soto would be deserving regardless to make the final roster. Given he did miss time earlier in the season, I had a hard time putting him in as the starter, but based on my selections above, either he or Carroll should be the first man off of the bench.
5 comments:
It would be absolutely criminal to have Soto off the all-star team.
Soto has to be an All Star. Period.
Obvious choice.
Good piece. Fan voting is backlash against his contract.. People are prone to an unhealthy joy in building people up so they have someone they can tear down.
Hey…who needs that clown Judge anyway? “ The Yankees take the first two against the White Sox and have now won 9 of their last 11 games”. Real teams fight back.
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