Righty hurler Nolan McLean had a great rookie season:
12-10, 3.16 ERA, 194 Ks, 1.17 WHIP.
But he briefly pitched EVEN BETTER in 2025:
5-1, 2.06 ERA in 48 innings.
Add both seasons together to give him a number of innings more typical of the 1960s - 1980s, and his numbers are:
17-11, 2.93, 228 innings, 251 Ks, 1.14 WHIP.
That, ladies and gents, is an ACE.
That was after just 226 minor league innings, where he was learning to pitch on the fly, and where he compiled a 3.10 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 241 Ks, with his 2025 minors ERA of 2.45.
Amazing.
Which reminds me of Jonah Tong in 2025, whose 1.43 minors ERA was a full run better than 2025 McLean’s.
Recall that in 2025, Tong was baseball’s minor league pitcher of the year.
Out of 150 minor league teams from AAA to Complex League, Tong was numero uno.
So…
Two messages today:
1) McLean is an ace. Today. Could his 2027 season be Seaver Circa 1969?
2) Don’t give up on Tong. He just might be another Mets ace in 2027.
5 comments:
McLean is not an ace.
Close but no cigar.
SP2, yes
Agree with Mack. McLean is not quite an ace. But I believe that he can still elevate his game up.
Based upon the 2026 numbers, if Tong was still a prospect I would have him listed as a tie for second. Concerns about the secondary pitches and the change from a more ground-out/strike-out pitcher to a fly-out pitcher and the number of home runs.
Was Seaver an SP-1 in 1967 on a team with a good staff? pProbably an SP-2. In 1968, Koosman was the SP-1. Seaver was probably SP-1.in 1969, Seaver was SP-1++. He progressed.
Seaver threw 251 innings in 1967. McLean has 228 innings in 2025-26. His second half ERA was 2.61.
Lastly, more runs are scored in baseball now than in 1967. The median team in 1967 scored 100 fewer runs than in 2026..and that was with giving up more unearned runs in the 60s than in 2026. The median team in 1967 hit just 114 HRs, but that jumps to 183 in 2026. Hitters nowadays are bigger and more dangerous. So, ERAs overall are higher.
Why can’t McLean move to SP-1 in 2027?
He was an SP-2 this year. I see SP-1 next year.
I think that McLean has the stuff to be an ace. His performance numbers are not there yet because he still suffers from bad innings. If he can understand what causes him to have those blow up innings and remedy it, he can take his place at the top.
Part of bad innings is facing more powerful hitters. Tough when almost everyone hits HRs these days. Very few Al Weis types.
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