MMs Top 25: #1 RHSP Noah Syndergaard

#1 RHSP Noah Syndergaard (LR: #1)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 6" Weight: 240 lb
Acquired: Trade, 12/31/2012, with OF Wuilmer Becerra, C Travis d'Arnaud, and C John Buck for SP R.A. Dickey, C Josh Thole, C Mike Nickeas

2014: (AAA) 9-7, 4.60 ERA, 133.0 IP, 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.481 WHIP
2013: (A+/AA) 9-4, 3.06 ERA, 117.2 IP, 10.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.080 WHIP

2012: (A) 8-5, 2.60 ERA, 103.2 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.080 WHIP

2011: (R/SS-A/A) 5-2, 1.83 ERA, 59.0 IP, 10.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.085 WHIP

2010: (R) 0-1, 2.70 ERA, 13.1 IP, 4.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.125 WHIP

    And then there was 1....the kid whose arrival will mark the beginning of multiple pennant runs. The kid who will complete a string of 1 superstar SP promotion per season that started in 2012. The kid who would be an ace on most pitching staffs but will have to settle for being #4 at least to start. 2012 brought us Matt Harvey, 2013 brought us Zack Wheeler, in 2014, Jacob deGrom bursted onto the scene, and in 2015....THOR will make his presence felt.

     Our #1 prospect has something that Harvey, Wheeler, and deGrom can never possess that gives him a distinct advantage over the competition, SIZE. At 6' 6", 240 lbs, he has 2 inches on all 3 of them. He also weighs 20 lbs heavier than Harvey, 55 lbs heavier than Wheeler, and 60 lbs heavier than deGrom. His size, strength, and intimidating Nordic frame gives him a near perfect pitcher's build that will prove to be extremely durable over the course of a season and a career.

     As if the size wasn't tough enough for hitters, Thor's pitching repertoire is deadly as well. He has a  "plus-plus" fastball that sits between 96-99 MPH and if he takes a bit off it becomes a heavy 94-96 MPH sinker for when he needs a DP. He also has a plus 12-6 curveball that makes Jonathan Niese's curve look Little League quality, and a plus change-up that's deadly against LHB looking to keep up with his fastball. That's 3 plus or better pitches folks....that's Ace quality.

     On the surface it seems like he struggled quite a bit in AAA this year but oh that pesky Pacific Coast League adjustment factor. Syndergaard FIP, which is an advanced metric that takes out variables leaving only a performance rating based ONLY on the starter, measured in at 3.70 which is almost a full run lower than his ERA. For comparisons, Jacob deGrom, who's ERA indicated that he performed well in AAA, posted a FIP of 3.73. Nearly identical, folks.

     Despite his AAA struggles Thor is ready. Its unfortunate that he did not make his debut this season but you can fault that on deGrom stepping up and stealing the spotlight from him this season. MLB.com's #11 overall prospect and #4 RHP prospect could potentially be the best of the quartet of young talented SP the Mets have. Dare I say.....that Generation K 2.0 is here......and it is glorious.

Ceiling: Top of the Rotation, 200+ K, CY Young Candidate (Stephen Strasburg)
Floor: Solid #2 MLB SP. Hovers around the high 2.00/low 3.00 ERA range (Zack Grienke)

MMs Top 25: #2 C Kevin Plawecki

#2 C Kevin Plawecki (LR: #5)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 225 lb
Age: 23
Acquired: 2012 Rule 4 Draft, 1st round, Purdue University

2014: (AA/AAA) .309/.365/.460, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 0 SB (0%), 30 BB, 48 K, 31% RTO
2013: (A/A+) .305/.390/.448, 8 HR, 80 RBI, 1 SB (100%), 42 BB, 53 K, 29% RTO
2012: (SS-A) .250/.345/.384, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 0 SB (0%), 25 BB, 24 K, 32% RTO

    Take your pick, would you rather have...A) a catcher with .260 avg, 20-25 HR potential, or B) a catcher with .290 avg, 10-15 HR potential but hits 40-50 doubles a season. Catcher A has excellent pitch framing abilities but poor blocking skills. Catcher B has good blocking skills, and average framing abilities. Both have below average arms.

     That's the dilemma that the Mets front office is facing right now when comparing incumbent Travis d'Arnaud and challenger Kevin Plawecki. While d'Arnaud is already in the MLB, Plawecki has been tearing through every minor league level with relative ease. After posting a .250 avg in his 1st season with Brooklyn, Plawecki has never posted an average below .280 and his OPS is regularly in the .800's. For comparisons, only 5 catchers this season have posted +.800 OPS, Posey, Mesoraco, Lucroy, Gattis, and Martin.

     MLB.com has Plawecki ranked as the #4 catching prospect in baseball and #61 overall. Baseball America has him even higher as the #3 catcher and 40th overall. No matter who you ask, a majority of talent evaluators believe Plawecki has a very bright future ahead of him. The ball's in Sandy's court to decide who's gonna man the dish for the next decade and potential be the team's next Mike Piazza.

Ceiling: Under the Radar Superstar MLB Catcher. (Johnathan Lucroy)
Floor: Average MLB starting C with 2 or 3 solid seasons. (Salvador Perez)

MMs Top 25: #3 2B/SS Dilson Herrera

#3 2B/SS Dilson Herrera (LR: #14)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5' 10" Weight: 150 lb
Age: 20
Acquired: Trade w/ Pittsburgh Pirates, 08/21/2013, w/ RP Victor Black for RF Marlon Byrd, C John Buck.

2014: (A+/AA) .323/.379/.479, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 23 SB (77%), 47 BB, 96 K
2013: (A) .267/.334/.416, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 14 SB (70%), 40 BB, 116 K
2012: (R/SS-A) .286/.341/.489, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 12 SB (75%), 19 BB, 47 K

     If there's one thing we have learned about Sandy Alderson, its that he's a shrewd trade negotiator. He turned a useless Ike Davis into a Top 25 in Blake Taylor + improved production from Lucas Duda. He also traded a career season from RA Dickey into the #1 (Syndergaard) and #2 (d'Arnaud) prospects in 2013's list, and the 36 yr old Marlon Byrd into our current 7th inning reliever and Mack Mets new #3 prospect, Dilson Herrera.

     Don't be fooled by the listed weight above...this kid may be small but he's built football strong. MLB.com has him as one of the Top 10 best 2B prospects in the game and even that may be underselling him a bit. While mlb.com has him only possessing 1 plus tool (speed), the production he's shown in Binghamton has made me a believer that he can become a 3 plus tool (average, power, speed) guy.

     In a pretty neutral hitting league environment with the Binghamton Mets, Herrera smashed 10 HRs and drove in 48 RBIs in only 278 Plate Appearances. He also swiped 9 bags and posted a reasonable 18.7% K rate. His AA OPS of .967 would have been tops in the entire league including Top 100 prospect Michael Taylor. Defensively, Herrera has never posted a season where he's committed more than 15 errors at 2B. His conversion rate on plays involving him stands at a reasonable 97.5%, which is what Daniel Murphy has peaked at this season.

     At only 20 years old, The front office is already giving Herrera a cup of coffee at the MLB level this September. With Daniel Murphy cost controlled for 1 more season, Herrera may not start next with the big league club, but the front office will be comfortable knowing that he'll be ready to take over once they trade Murphy or he suffers and injury. This also allows them to see, first hand, what final tweaks Herrera needs in AAA before becoming the Mets 2B for the next 10 seasons.

Ceiling: Solid all-around 2B. 2 or 3 time MLB All-Star (Ian Kinsler)
Floor: .270 AVG/10 HR/15 SB MLB starting 2B. (Howie Kendrick)

MMs Top 25: #4 LHSP Steven Matz

#4 LHSP Stephen Matz (LR: #8)
Bats: R Throws: L
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 200 lb
Age: 23
Acquired: 2009 Rule 4 Draft, 2nd Round, West Melville HS (East Sauteket)

2014: (A+/AA) 10-9, 2.24 ERA, 140.2 IP, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.187 WHIP

2013: (A) 5-6, 2.62 ERA, 106.1 IP, 10.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.166 WHIP

2012: (R) 2-1, 1.55 ERA, 29.0 IP, 10.6 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 1.138 WHIP

2011: DNP (Tommy John Surgery Set-back)
2010: DNP (Tommy John Surgery Recovery)
 
     Ladies and Gentleman, Steven Matz has officially arived. After spending his 1st 3 professional season on the disabled list for a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, Steven Matz has been dominate over the past 3 years. This season has been no different as he breezed through Port St. Lucie and showed no signs of slowing down after his promotion to Binghamton.

     As Sandy Alderson's only left handed pitching prospect, Matz probably has more value to the front office then any other minor league starter outside of Noah Syndergaard.  He possesses a 94-97 mph fastball which is rare velocity from the left side, a hard curveball that has developed from the slurve he previously had, and an advanced change-up that he's had since he came out of HS. All 3 pitches have developed to a point where scouts now believe all three can be plus pitches.

     In previous years the organization has had to be very careful with Matz in order to avoid aggravating the elbow, however, this season it looks like Alderson took the training wheels off and Matz has responded very well. This is especially important since Matz is already on the 40 man roster and the organization burned 1 of his 3 available options this season in order for him to pitch in the minors.

     Matz has the potential to be a star in the MLB because of his premium velocity. In fact the top average fastball for left handed starters continues to come from David Price who clocks in at an average of 93.5 mph. If he can continue to stay healthy and develop his breaking pitches the sky could be the limit.

Ceiling: Not an ace but one of better lefties in the game. #1/#2 SP (Tyson Ross)
Floor: Solid #3/#4 MLB SP. (Jorge De La Rosa)

MMs Top 25: #5 OF Brandon Nimmo

#5 OF Brandon Nimmo (LR: #10)
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 205 lb
Age: 21
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 1st Round, East HS (Cheyenne, WY)

2014: (A+/AA) .278/.394/.426, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 14 SB (78%), 86 BB, 105 K

2013: (A) .273/.397/.359, 2 HR, 40 RBI, 10 SB (59%), 71 BB, 131 K
2012: (SS-A) .248/.372/.406, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 1 SB (17%), 46 BB, 78 K
2011: (R) .211/.318/.368, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB (0%), 6 BB, 14 K  
   
     Admit it.....when Sandy Alderson initially made this pick, we all were staring at our computer screens scratching our heads. Well low and behold, the master mind GM was right to trust this kid. After an intense off-season workout program at the IMG Academy with the likes of Andrew McCutcheon, Nimmo dominated the Florida State League and earned himself a promotion to AA- Binghamton.

     While the numbers for Binghamton (.238/.339/.396) don't look quite as good as his FSL numbers, I did get the chance to see Nimmo play in person and I came away quite impressed. Nimmo continues to show that he's not going to chase bad pitches. In fact, he completely embodies the organizational strategy of "hunting for your pitch." He doesn't swing at pitches on the corners that you can't do much with, he just waits for the pitcher to make a mistake and drills it.

     This does lead to a higher K rate then most would like, but a 19.4% K rate is certainly manageable in the MLB. Especially considering guys like McCutcheon, Pence, and Puig all have K rates near the 18% mark. Nimmo may not develop much more power, as he filled out his 6'3" frame pretty well at the IMG academy.

     In the event that he does add a few more pounds of muscle before he reaches the big leagues, we could develop ourselves a very dangerous middle of the order bat in the OF which is something the team has not had in a while. For now I'll hold his ceiling flat to the last update but do keep in mind there's a chance it could be upgraded soon.

Ceiling: 15 HR/15 SB LF with good defense (Alex Gordon)
Floor: Power does not develop but he still becomes a solid #2 hitter (Christian Yelich)

MMs Top 25: #6 RHSP Rafael Montero

#6 RHSP Rafael Montero (LR: #2)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 185 lb
Age: 23
Acquired: 2011 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2014: (AAA/MLB) 6-9, 4.09 ERA, 112.2 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.364 WHIP
2013: (AA/AAA) 12-7, 2.78 ERA, 155.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.101 WHIP
2012: (A/A+) 11-5, 2.36 ERA, 122.0 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.943 WHIP
2011: (DSL/R/SS-A) 5-4, 2.15 ERA, 71.0 IP, 8.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.958 WHIP
  
     Montero's rapid ascension through the Mets minor league system has finally hit a wall. After speeding through 6 levels of minor league baseball in 2 1/2 years, Montero has begun to struggle in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. While Montero is still posting K rates in the high 8's, his BB rate has ballooned all the way up into the 4's during his time in AAA. When you look at his career rates, it seems quite abnormal that he would suddenly be walking this many guys when in the past his BB Rates were regularly in the mid to low 1's.

     Let's delve into the peripherals, shall we? First off, he's using his fastball way too much. In his few starts at the MLB level, the advanced pitching metric system "PITCH F/X" has registered Montero using his FB a whopping 72% of the time. While opponents are not hitting it well (.245 BAA), they know it's coming and are not missing it. In fact only 5% of swings against his fastball are missed. This leads to a large amount of foul balls which have been driving up his pitch count and forcing him into unfavorable counts.

     The second problem, and the more glaring one, has been his slider. While he's only using it 12% of time, opponents have a .429 batting average against it and are only missing it on 12% of swings. By comparisons, Matt Harvey uses his slider 18% of the time and generates a whiff rate of 22% allowing opponents to post a paltry .238 BAA. So what's causing these inflated numbers? Well quite frankly.....the pitch just hasn't been that good. While many scouts graded it as a MLB average pitch, in our first looks at him, the slider has been pretty flat. PITCH F/X shows that Montero's slider has only shown .5 inches of vertical movement and only 1" of horizontal movement. Basically, its been a flying saucer that hitters have been teeing off on.

     Despite the grim results and outcomes there is still hope for Montero. He looked very strong in his last start against the Cubs on August 17th, a game which I attended. During that game he got back to basics and returned to what has always worked for him in the minor leagues, which is, an advanced feel for a change-up. In that game he used his change-up 22% of the time and Cubs batters whiffed on it 9 out of 24 times (37.5%). 

     If he can balance his repertoire usage to that day's level (60% FB, 25% CH, 15% SL), get his control back, and improve the movement on his slider he'll have no problem reaching his ceiling. Until then we have to start expecting him to stay at his floor.

Ceiling: Solid and Consistent #3 MLB SP (James Shields)
Floor: 2 pitch repertoire #5 MLB SP (Kyle Kendrick)

MMs Top 25: #7 1B Dominic Smith

#7 1B Dominic Smith (LR: #9)
Bats: L Throws: L
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 185 lb
Age: 19
Acquired: 2013 Rule 4 Draft, 1st Round, Junipero Serra HS (Gardena, CA)

2014: (A) .271/.344/.338, 1 HR, 44 RBI, 5 SB (55%), 51 BB, 77 K
2013: (R) .301/.398/.439, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 2 SB (33%), 26 BB, 37 K
  
     Baseball America's "best pure prep hitter in the 2013 Draft class," has truly impressed Mets minor league followers in his 1st two years. As one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League, Smith is amongst the Top 30 in batting average and doubles. He has also shown to be a solid defender converting 99.3% of the plays which he has been a part of.

      Critics will be quick to point out that Smith's power has been non-existant. While this is certainly the case, fans need to remember that Grayson Stadium, as well as, much of the SAL is a very difficult place to hit and carries many of the MLB's top pitching prospects. At only 185lbs, the young man also has at least 20 pounds on his frame to fill out as he gets older and grows stronger. As long as he can maintain his hand-eye coordination and advanced pitch-recognition skills, he should develop into someone who gets on base often, while still driving balls.

    Scouts and analysts, more advanced I, continue to jump onto Smith's bandwagon. MLB.com has pushed Dominic into their Top 100 Prospects listing, slotting him at #84. They have also named him the #1 1B prospect in all of baseball with the promotion of Jon Singleton. Scouts are confident he will provide enough offense to make him a solid Major Leaguer in time while providing excellent defense at 1B.

Ceiling: 20-25 HR, .290+ AVG, low K, high BB bat in the #3 spot (Joey Votto)
Floor: Makes the MLB, Good Bat/Defense but not enough power develops (Eric Hosmer)

MMs Top 25: #8 LF Michael Conforto

#8 LF Michael Conforto (LR: #NR)
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 211 lb
Age: 21
Acquired: 2014 Rule 4 Draft, 1st Round, Oregon State University

2014: (SS-A) .333/.408/.435, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB (100%), 15 BB, 26 K
  
     During this year's draft, The Mets opted to pass on selecting one of the many available arms in this year's strong pitching class. Instead, Alderson grabbed one of the few potentially impactful bats in Conforto with that tenth overall selection. So far Sandy's choice is looking to be a very good one.

     Conforto got off to a late start to his year due to signing close to the draftee signing deadline. After participating in a very long college season, due to Oregon's deep playoff run, Conforto was tired and wanted to spent time with his folks before starting his professional career. That time seems to have served him well because ever since he stepped onto the Brooklyn field, he hasn't stopped hitting. In 38 games with the Cyclones, Conforto has only gone hitless in 10 of them. In fact, he has more multi hit games (17) than he does hitless games.

     While the pure bat skills are nice, many have been left wondering, "Where's the power?" Conforto answered that in an interview with MetsMinorLeagueBlog's Toby Hyde. Cyclones’ hitting coach Benny Distefano and Conforto have been working together to create a more "professional" swing as he transistions from metal to wood bats. One of the things Distefano noticed was:

"When they started pitching him in, he comes off the ball a little bit with his front arm...Instead of driving down towards the ball, Conforto would “cheat” with his elbow and move it up to create more space for his hands to clear through to handle inside pitches."

     The fact that Conforto is already making these small adjustments bodes well for his future progression. It also shows us that despite the #'s we see, Short Season A, at its core, is still an instructional level. Conforto has a very bright future with the Mets and don't be surprised if he hits St. Lucie and Binghamton in 2015, with Vegas and the MLB coming in 2016. He's that advanced

Ceiling: 25 HR, .290 AVG, low K, high BB bat in the clean-up spot (Matt Holliday)
Floor: Makes the MLB, but Power/Avg never reaches peak and he flames out (Dominic Brown)

MMs Top 25: #9 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa

#9 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa (LR: #6)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6′ 2″ Weight: 158 lb
Age: 21
Acquired: 2009 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2014: (A+/AA) 11-4, 4.27 ERA, 141.2 IP, 6.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.344 WHIP
2013: (A) 15-4, 2.72 ERA, 135.2 IP, 7.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 1.025 WHIP
2012: (SS-A) 5-2, 2.23 ERA, 76.2 IP, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.926 WHIP
2011: (R) 2-3, 3.21 ERA, 56.0 IP, 4.3 K/9, 0.6 BB/9, 1.089 WHIP
 
     I said it in 2012, in 2013, and again this pre-season. Just to cover my butt though, I'll say it again...I may be guilty of over-ranking Ynoa. This kid has done nothing but throw quality start after quality start and rack up win after win. Last season, if you include the playoffs, he racked up 17 wins which is something some minor leaguers can't accomplish in 2-3 years worth of starts. He's conquered the NY-Penn League, the South Atlantic League, and most recently the Florida State League with relative ease. The real test has begun though for Ynoa, conquering the prospect wall that is the AA Eastern League.

     So far, in his 1st 10 starts, Ynoa has shown a mixed bag of results as he adjusts to the tougher league. He's shown some positives such as his July 9th performance against Portland (7 IP, 9 K, 0 ER) , as well as some negatives (4 IP, 6 ER against Bowie). So far, the main problem has been the long ball as he's given up 9 HRs in those 10 starts as he is quickly learning that guys are stronger in AA. He'll likes to work up in the zone so he'll have to make the adjustment to try to even out his, currently high, fly-ball to ground-ball ratio.

     Ynoa is currently cranking his fastball at around 92-94 MPH with good natural movement. He plays the pitch up even higher thanks to his impeccable control. His change-up is already MLB average and has the potential to be a plus pitch thanks to it's excellent 2-plane movement both down and away from right-handers. He's also made improvements to the spin on his slider and scouts now believe it can at least be an MLB average 3rd pitch. He also has a curveball, but, scouts are not as high on it as his slider so he's better served keeping as a "show-me" back door pitch.

     Ynoa still has a ton of room in his frame to fill out on his lanky 6'2" 158 lb frame, so, additional velocity projection is still here. If he can add just 2 or 3 more ticks to that fastball, while maintaining it's movement, combining that with his advanced change-up will make him a very strong bet to reach his potential. The celing may not be super high, but, the risk is low. He'll be an MLB starter, its just a question of where.

Ceiling: Solid 12-15 win, 180+ IP per year #3 MLB pitcher (Kyle Lohse)
Floor: Decent #5 MLB SP (Erik Stults)

MMs Top 25: #12 RHSP Michael Fulmer

#12 RHSP Michael Fulmer (LR: #13)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 200 lb
Age: 21
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 1st Round, Deer Creek HS (Edmond, OK)

2014: (A+/AA) 6-11, 4.38 ERA, 98.2 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.541 WHIP
2013: (A+) 2-2, 3.44 ERA, 46.0 IP, 7.7 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.235 WHIP
2012: (A) 7-6, 2.74 ERA, 108.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9,1.200 WHIP
2011: (R) 0-1, 10.12 ERA, 5.1 IP, 16.9 K/9, 6.8 BB/9, 2.438 WHIP  

***Please take note: After re-reviewing Fulmer's case I have bumped Mazzoni and Puello up 1 spot and am slotting Fulmer at #12.

     With all the hype surrounding Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Montero, Ynoa, Molina, Whalen, Mazzoni and DeGrom; Michael Fulmer has sort of become the forgotten pitching prospect within the system.

     After posting very strong numbers as the 4th youngest pitcher in the SAL, Fulmer torn his meniscus during Spring Training which caused him to miss a better part of half the 2013 season. He was starting to round back into form with 3 straight 6+ inning starts until he took a comebacker to his pitching arm off the bat of Casey Kotchman. As a precaution, the Mets front office decided to keep him off the mound for the remainder of the season.

     Fulmer is back this season fully healthy and pitched well enough at the Florida State League that he's already earned a promotion to Binghamton. He possesses a 93-94 mph fastball that has touched 97 at times and a very hard, sharp mid 80's slider that is MLB average right now and has the potential to be a plus plus major league offering. He has also improved his change-up to the point where it could become a potential 3rd MLB pitch.

     With the number of young pitchers who have made, or are ready to make the jump to the MLB level, Fulmer is going to have really impress during his time in Binghamton both this and probably next year in order to get an MLB shot. If there ends up not being room for him, he could be a secondary trade piece for a bat.

Ceiling: Good #4/Borderline #3 MLB pitcher (Charlie Morton)
Floor: Middle Leverage Reliever/Spot Starter (David Phelps)

MMs Top 25: #10 RHSP Cory Mazzoni

#10 RHSP Cory Mazzoni (LR: NR)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 200 lb
Age: 24
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 2nd Round, North Carolina State University

2014: (AAA) 7-2, 4.69 ERA, 71.0 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.338 WHIP
2013: (AA) 5-3, 4.36 ERA, 66.0 IP, 10.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.348 WHIP
2012: (A+/AA) 10-6, 3.93 ERA, 144.1 IP, 6.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.316 WHIP
2011: (SS-A/A+) 2-1, 1.38 ERA, 13.0 IP, 12.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.154 WHIP
  
    Look....I'm not perfect. I have a tendency of jumping on some band wagons too late and others too early. That's what happens when you get into the business of ranking prospects. In Cory Mazzoni's case though, his lack of placement on our previous list was a massive error in my part. I literally just completely forgot about him.

     Unfortunately, many people did as well. The former 2nd round draft pick came out of college with a plus fastball that could reach 97 mph and an already MLB average slider with 2 plane break. While his fastball did not have much downward movement, its horizontal movement was considered one of the best in the draft and still generated groundball rates of near 60%. The major knock on him was that when he did crank up his fastball to the 96-97 range, it straightened out an became hittable. He also had a hybrid change-up/splitter that scouts did not like.

     Mazzoni was chugging right along after being drafted and reached AA within his 1st 12 months of professional baseball. However injuries struck in 2013 and it was feared that some pain originating from his knee area would cause him to go under the knife. Luckily, it was only some nerve pinching and and the team cautiously shut him down for the remainder of the 2013 season. 2014 also provided us a bit of a scare as Mazzoni went down after the final spring game of the year with discomfort in his tricep. The fear was that he would become another Tommy John candidate but Mazzoni was only diagnosed with elbow tendinitis.

     Mazzoni took the spring off but is now back and pitching for the Las Vegas 51's. He has reduced the velocity on his fastball to the 92-93 mph range but has improved his control and vertical movement of the pitch. He has also tighten up the spin of his 3rd pitch to make it a true Split-Finger and is racking up more K's and groundballs. The Mets front office still thinks that Maz has the ability to be a solid #3 SP in an MLB rotation with his 3 plus to average pitches despite the massive depth of high level young pitchers in the organization. At the bare minimum, Mazzoni has the stuff and the arm slot to at least be a middle leverage relief pitcher. At the same time he could very well end up being a secondary piece in a trade to acquire a bat.

Ceiling: #3, high ground-ball rate, MLB SP. (Homer Bailey)
Floor: Medium Leverage ground-ball specialist (J.P. Howell)

MMs Top 25: #11 OF Cesar Puello

#11 OF Cesar Puello (LR: #4)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 220 lb
Age: 23
Acquired: 2007 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2014: (AAA) .237/.340/.366, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 13 SB (93%), 28 BB, 65 K
2013: (AA) .326/.403/.547, 16 HR, 73 RBI, 24 SB (77%), 28 BB, 82 K
2012: (A+) .260/.328/.423, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 19 SB (90%), 7 BB, 58 K
2011: (A+) .259/.313/.397, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 19 SB (68%), 18 BB, 103 K
2010: (A) .292/.375/.359, 1 HR, 34 RBI, 45 SB (82%), 32 BB, 82 K
2009: (R) .296/.373/.423, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 15 SB (75%), 10 BB, 51 K   
  
     Puello is the owner of the largest drop between this ranking and the pre-season ranking dropping from 4th to 12th. Honestly, I'm not quite sure what is going on here. After posting monster numbers in Binghamton, Puello looked for sure to be locked in to making his MLB debut in 2014. Injuries, personal life events, and a lack of playing time have derailed that opportunity, though.

     Early in the season, Puello scuffled at the plate, only hitting .244 and posting a paltry .563 OPS during April. This allowed the rehabbing Juan Lagares and the mixture of Andrew Brown, Eric Campbell, and Bobby Abreu to eat away at some of Puello's playing time. After Lagares and Abreu were promoted to the MLB, Puello began playing more consistently and hit a much better .291 with a .863 OPS in the month of May. But then came a personal leave of absence from the team to deal with court cases involving the BioGenesis scandal. Once he returned to the team though, he was not himself and struggled mightly hitting only .137 with a .567 OPS in the month of June.

     He has once again recovered well after getting back in the consistent playing groove and posted a .282 AVG with a .917 OPS in July. However, as has been the story all year, the inconsistent Puello is in another slump during August. As he has seen his AVG drop to .235 and his OPS to .722. Puello continues to struggle to draw BB's which combined with his near 20% K rate is putting pressure on his average and causing it to fluctuate wildly during these hot and cold streaks.

     Puello has also reportedly gotten himself into trouble with Manager Wally Backman causing him to get benched every now and then in favor of Brandon Allen and Anthony Seratelli, both of which are posting better numbers then him despite being older. Puello still has the tools to be a future 15 HR/15 SB guy but now there are questions about whether or not he is going to have the ability to hit at the MLB level. Some additional risk in his floor has developed and its hurting his stock.

Ceiling: 20 HR/20 SB RF with good defense (Jason Heyward)
Floor: Streaky 4th OF, starter on a basement team (Desmond Jennings)

MMs Top 25: #13 LHRP Jack Leathersich

#13 LHRP Jack Leathersich (LR: #16)
Bats: R Throws: L
Height: 5' 11" Weight: 200 lb
Age: 24
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 5th Round, University of Massasschusetts- Lowell

2014: (AA/AAA) 3-3, 3.26 ERA, 49.2 IP, 1 SV, 15.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.329 WHIP
2013: (AA/AAA) 4-0, 4.63 ERA, 58.1 IP, 3 SV,15.7 K/9, 6.9 BB/9, 1.646 WHIP
2012: (A/A+) 2-6, 3.00 ERA, 72.0 IP,  2 SV, 14.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.153 WHIP
2011: (SS-A) 0-0, 0.71 ERA, 12.2 IP, 1 SV, 18.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.711 WHIP
     
     First I was on the Leather Rocket express, then I was off, but once again I'm back on. Leathersich has always had control problems and they became more pronounced when he was promoted to Las Vegas last season. His performance was poor enough that the team re-assigned him to Binghamton to re-collect himself once again.

     Just like his last stint in Binghamton, Leathersich was flat out dominant. He struck out 79!!! guys in only 46 innings while keeping his BB rate under control at 4.1 per 9 innings. In fact, over his final 18 innings in Binghamton he was able to get that rate all the way down to 3.0 per 9 which is fantastic progress. Leather was promoted to AAA again at the beginning of the month and while it seems like he is struggling again, thanks to a 7.36 ERA; Leathersich has actually continued to pitch well.

     In his first 5 appearances back, Leathersich has faced 19 batters. 5 (26%) of them have struck out, 2 (10.5%) have walked, and 5 have gotten base hits (.294 batting average). While the hits seem pretty bad, only 1 of them was a solid contact line-drive. Encompassing everything, the overall periphals look strong. If he can continue at that 26% to 10.5% K to BB rate, he's going to be perfectly fine in AAA this time around and could potentially be ready to be a MAJOR piece in the MLB bullpen.

Ceiling: Stellar 8th inning bridge to the Closer (Andrew Miller)
Floor: Reverse Platoon Left handed specialist vs right handers (Antonio Bastardo)

MMs Top 25: #14 SS Gavin Cecchini

#14 SS Gavin Cecchini (LR: #15)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 180 lb
Age: 20
Acquired: 2012 Rule 4 Draft, 1st Round, Alfred M. Barbe HS (Lake Charles, LA)

2014: (A/A+) .242/.327/.373, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 10 SB (71%), 54 BB, 72 K
2013: (SS-A) .273/.319/.314, 0 HR, 14 RBI, 2 SB (40%), 14 BB, 30 K
2012: (R/SS-A) .240/.307/.321, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 5 SB (56 %), 18 BB, 44 K
     
     Mr. average has been....well average. Ever since being drafted in the 1st round by the Mets over the likes of Courtney Hawkins, Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, and Stryker Trahan; Cecchini has been floating around the middle of our Top prospect listing. As we have pointed out in the past, Cecchini does nothing great and he doesn't have any plus tools. What he does have is 5 average to above average tools that projects him to be an unflashy BUT productive all around player.

     While on the surface it seems as though Cecchini has been suffering through a tough season, the reality is that he's actually been pretty good. The BABIP baseball gods have been frowning down on Cecchini this season as he carries a batting average on balls in play of a meager .236. This has been weighing down his regular batting average which dropped from .258 in Savannah to .226 in St. Lucie. The more important things to look at are his K and BB rates, both of which have been stellar this season. In the 57 games he's played in St. Lucie, Cecchini is BB'ing in 12.1% of his plate appearances and K'ing in only 13% of them.

     Surprisingly, Cecchini has also developed a bit of power and is threatening to finish the season in double digits. After only hitting 3 HR, in 57 games, in the tough SAL environment, Cecchini has smashed 5 additional HRs in the same amount of games in the more even Florida State League. He also has 23 doubles and 4 triples to go with them. His performance this season has convinced me that his power tool has upgraded from below average potential to average for the SS position, capable of hitting 10-12 per season.

     Cecchini will finish the year out in St. Lucie but I'll be interested in seeing what the front office's plan is for him this off-season. There's an outside chance that he'll be assigned to a Arizona Fall League team to get him some more AB's and open up the potential to start him in Binghamton for the 2015 season.

Ceiling: Unexciting, albeit, productive MLB SS starter (Alexei Ramirez)
Floor: All around below average MLB SS who starts because the position is so weak (Alexei Amarista)

MMs Top 25: #15 3B/OF Dustin Lawley

#15 3B/OF Dustin Lawley (LR: #17)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 205 lb
Age: 25
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 19th Round, University of West Florida

2014: (AA) .226/.280/.436, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB (57%), 30 BB, 127 K
2013: (A/AAA) .262/.314/.513, 26 HR, 96 RBI, 6 SB (67%), 36 BB, 113 K
2012: (A) .261/.333/.434, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 14 SB (78%), 50 BB, 122 K
2011: (R/A) .284/.323/.510, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 5 SB (50%), 14 BB, 52 K

     Lawley forced his way onto the list last year with a highly impressive 2013 campaign in Port St. Lucie but this season has been a little more of a struggle for Lawley statistical wise. Hitting in the middle of the Binghamton batting order, Lawley is only batting .226 with a meager .280 OBP and an astonishingly bad 28.5% K rate.

     However, hitting for average and taking walks has never been Lawley's style of play. He's a masher who is expected to hit HR's and drive guys in. From that viewpoint, he's doing a fantastic job still. Almost 50% of his base hits this season are of the "extra" variety and, while his Isolated power rate is down, it still stands at an equally impressive .209.

     Defensively, Lawley has been getting a majority of his time at 3B but has begun to struggle with his throws. In only 68 games played, he's committed 17 errors. Long term wise, he still profiles better in the OF where he plays adequate defense and has the offensive firepower to stick in the corners. If he can cut his K rate back down to the low 20% range his average should creep back up to the .250 - .260 range which, with his power, could turn him in a big power bat that could slot in the 5th spot in anyone's line-up.

Ceiling: Late blooming Low AVG, Power Hitting LF  (Brandon Moss)
Floor: Power bat off the bench

MMs Top 25: #16 RHSP Logan Verrett

#16 RHSP Logan Verrett (LR: #18)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 190 lb
Age: 24
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 3rd Round, Baylor University

2014: (AAA) 10-5, 4.35 ERA, 147.0 IP, 6.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.429 WHIP
2013: (AA) 12-6, 4.25 ERA, 146.0 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 1.021 WHIP
2012: (A/A+) 5-2, 2.70 ERA, 103.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 0.968 WHIP

   The Mets seem to have a lot of pitchers in the minor leagues right now who all fit the same mold. Unsexy, control-oriented, low ceiling but high floor right handers who just know how to pitch. Verrett is another one of these guys that fit that mold.

     Verrett has long been one of Mack's Mets sneaky sleepers. He's always put up strong K to BB ratios despite not having premium velocity and he mixes all 4 of his pitches well. In fact he's earned his way onto MLB.com's Top 20 for the team despite not having a single pitch that grades out as MLB "plus." His plus command helps play up his largely average arsenal making him an effective innings eating guy. 

     His best pitch continues to be his 2 plane slider which he relies on heavily to generate strikeouts. He couples it with a low 90's fastball that he surprisingly likes to work up in the zone with. This leads to heavy Fly-ball Rates which, while it doesn't play well in Vegas, could be very effective in Citi Field with the Mets top flight defensive OF. Unfortunately, his lack of a plus pitch does prevent him from being used as a high leverage relief pitcher. 

     With the massive amount of pitching depth the club has, Verrett is more likely to be part of a trade than to pitch for the Mets. Once he does reach the majors though, he should at the very least be an effective #5 starter for someone with the chance to top out as a Dillon Gee type pitcher. 

Ceiling: Effective #4 MLB SP (Dillon Gee)
Floor: Innings Eating #5 MLB SP (Jeremy Guthrie)

MMs Top 25: #17 RHSP Marcos Molina

#17 RHSP Marcos Molina (LR: N/A)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 188 lb
Age: 19
Acquired: 2012 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2014: (SS-A) 5-2, 1.78 ERA, 55.2 IP, 9.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.898 WHIP
2013: (R) 4-3, 4.39 ERA, 53.1 IP, 7.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.312 WHIP
2012: (DSL) 5-2, 3.58 ERA, 55.1 IP, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.120 WHIP

    In reality Molina and Rosario should be both tied for this 17th spot. Both were international signings by Sandy Alderson in 2012 and both of them are having breakout seasons in 2014. Molina has been especially good with the Brooklyn Cyclones leading the league in K's and WHIP while holding the #2 spot for ERA.

     Molina was placed on the map last year by Baseball America who listed him as #10 on their list due to his athleticism and physical projectability. While many believed Mr. Jason Parks ranking was quite pre-mature considering his lackluster stats in the Gulf Coast and Dominican Summer Leagues, the overall scouting report caught some eyes.

     Molina's fastball ranges between 92-94 MPH with a max of 96 and, as with many of the Mets recent SP prospects, he has a plus change-up that is well beyond his years. Molina's also has 2 breaking balls currently; One is a curveball that has sloppy slurve like movement to it currently. He'll have to tighten up the spin on it or else it'll end up being scrapped when he reaches higher minor league levels. The other breaking pitch is a slider that has shown to the be the better of the two. He throws it hard, reaching 86-87 mph on the radar gun, with excellent two plane movement much like Matt Harvey's slide piece.

     Currently, Molina has a max effort delivery which is better suited to the bullpen. The amount of energy he expends disallows him the ability to hold his velocity deep into games. Reports have him starting games at 95/96mph but down to 91/92 by the 3rd inning on most nights. He also doesn't repeat his arm speed between his fastball and his breaking pitches. Sometimes he will slow his arm speed down which will tip off the breaking pitch to hitters.

     Just like with Rosario, Molina is still very young and not without his major flaws which is what makes him a high risk, high reward prospect. While conquering the NY-Penn League is an important 1st step, we have learn from countless occasions that even Brooklyn stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. Both Molina and Rosario will have chances to shoot up the list rapidly as they slowly progress through the lower minors. We very well could be looking at the next #1 and #2 prospects in the system by the end of next year.

Ceiling: Dominating #2 MLB SP

Floor: Flames out due to an arm injury from the max effort delivery 

MMs Top 25: #18 SS Amed Rosario

#18 SS Amed Rosario (LR: #23)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 170 lb
Age: 18
Acquired: 2012 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2014: (SS-A) .282/.327/.373, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB (70%), 13 BB, 35 K
2013: (R) .241/.279/.358, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 2 SB (25%), 11 BB, 43 K

    After being aggressively brought stateside and struggling through the lowest levels of minor league ball, Amed Rosario worked extremely hard over the off-season and the results of his training have shown this year. Despite not putting up great numbers in Rookie Ball, the Mets front office gave Rosario another aggressive assignment to Brooklyn where he has been facing college level pitchers all season long. Despite playing against guys 3 yrs older than him, Rosario has excelled in the NY Penn League showing why he was deemed as a potential superstar by Baseball America.

     This year for the Cyclones, which is home to one of the tougher hitting environments, Rosario has his batting average up over the .280 mark while his OPS hovers at an even .700. While the power numbers aren't too hot right now, Rosario should fill his body out more as he matures and develop more power. That combined with his natural opposite field driving abilities could potentially develop into 20 HR power which would be a premium at the SS position.

     Rosario is being placed on almost everyone's Top 10 lists this season, but, we have to remember that he's only 18 and still have 4 levels of minor league ball to move through. At this point scouts believe he will develop at least 4 plus tools with the potential to become a true 5 tool player if he can maintain his speed and continue developing power. If he continues to develop, he should continue his steady climb up the list.

Ceiling: Super-Star starting SS (Troy Tulowitzski type player) 

Floor: Fizzles out in the upper minors due to lack of body development or injury (ala Fernando Martinez.)

MM's Top 25: #19 RHSP Matthew Bowman

#19 RHSP Matthew Bowman (LR: #28)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 165 lb

Age: 23
Acquired: 2012 draft, 13th round, Princeton University

2014: (AA/AAA) 7-7, 3.35 ERA, 102.0 IP, 7.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.333 WHIP
2013: (A/A+) 10-4, 3.05 ERA, 127.0 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.150 WHIP
2012: (SS-A) 2-2, 2.45 ERA, 29.1 IP, 9.2 K/9, 0.6 BB/9, 0.955 WHIP

     The Mets are not strangers when it comes to drafting mature, almost fully developed college arms. Sandy selected a trio of them in 2011 (Mazzoni, Pill, Verrett), and Bowman was 1 of 7 college seniors selected in 2012. College seniors can generally be fast tracked through the lower minors and Bowman did exactly that. With his recent promotion to AAA- Las Vegas, Bowman has pitched at every major level in a span of roughly 12 months.

     As an Ivy League graduate, Bowman's upside comes from his knowledge and utilization of 5 different pitches which he mixes very well. He controls his 92-93mph fastball very well and spots it on the corners with regularity. He also has a curveball, slider, change-up, and a split finger in his arsenal, all of which grade out as potential MLB average pitches. All of that variety, plus the fact that his wind-up motion is nearly the exact image of former CY Young winner, Tim Lincecum, allows him to hide his pitches well and keep hitters off-balance multiple times through the order.

     Bowman has never posted an ERA above 3.50 at any level and his K/9 has always remained in the low 8's which is pretty consistently solid. Every time I watch him pitch I always compare him to a mix of Lincecum and a right handed Niese. He's certainly a sleeper guy worth watching.

Ceiling: #4/#5 Starter in the MLB

Floor: Medium Leverage MLB reliever

MM's Top 25: #20 OF Travis Taijeron

#20 OF Travis Taijeron (LR: #21)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 200 lb
Age: 25
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 18th round, California Polytechnic State University 

2014: (AA) .248/.362/.486, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 1 SB (33%), 44 BB, 87 K
2013: (A+/AA) .271/.356/.531, 23 HR, 69 RBI, 1 SB (50%), 47 BB, 131 K
2012: (A/A+) .255/.362/.477, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 6 SB (86%), 55 BB, 122 K
2011: (SS-A) .299/.387/.557, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 0 SB (0%), 22 BB, 64 K

    The world is full of guys who know how to hit a baseball. However, very few know how to hit a baseball HARD. Travis Taijeron is one of those guys. While he may never hit over .250 in the big leagues, Taijeron has the ability to regularly OPS over .850 which is higher than any Met right now outside of Lucas Duda.

     Taijeron swings and misses a lot with a K rate that is regularly over 25% but still maintains a healthy OBP thanks to a BB rate that is also over 10.5%. By SABR definitions, Taijeron is what we would call a "3 true outcome" player or a player who's stat will not fluctuate due to advanced metrics such as BABIP. When Taijeron gets base hits, its not due to luck, he just hits the ball really hard. During his time with Binghamton, he's on pace to hit 50 doubles and be a 30 HR 100 RBI guy.

     In terms of a Mets comp, the organization hasn't had an OF bat like Taijeron since Cliff Floyd. An average to slightly below average hit tool with monster power, a strong OBP, but little speed. Defensively, as with most of the Mets OF prospects right now, Taijeron has a very sure glove and a strong arm. His average speed is played up in the OF thanks to his good reads and route running abilities. If he can improve his hit tool just a little bit and somehow get that K rate closer to 20%, the Mets may have something special here.

Ceiling: 20 HR Starting OF on a Second Division Team 

Floor: Right Handed Power Bat off the bench