The New York Mets had a rough time down in Atlanta this week. They lost starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker to injuries in the first two games of the Atlanta series, although it looks like Walker will only miss one start. Their infield defense took a big hit, losing Luis Guillorme and Eduardo Escobar to the I.L. The Mets' offense seems to be in hit-or-miss mode since the series against the Cincinnati Reds with run totals of 1, 1, 6, 1, 0, 9, 2, 7, 8, and 1 through Saturday's doubleheader split with the Phillies. They lost all but one of the games in which they scored 2 runs or fewer.
Meanwhile, the Braves win almost every day. Since June 1, Atlanta's record has been 52-20. Over a 162-game season, that would translate to 117 wins — one game better than the MLB record for wins in a season. Eight of those losses came against the Mets, meaning Atlanta has only lost 12 games against the rest of baseball from the beginning of July through last night's games. I doubt they will sustain that pace for the next month and a half, but I guess we'll find out. I'm not going to go on and on about the Braves here. They are a better team than I thought they were. Not that I ever thought they were nearly as bad as their 23-27 record heading into June, but I thought they were a club that would struggle to reach 90 wins, and that's clearly not true.
My focus is on the Mets, and I believe this past week has raised some interesting questions. One is about Carrasco. Carlos has had an excellent season for the Mets this year. Without him, they might not have survived the Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom injuries.
On the other hand, I'm not sure of the consensus of opinion that sees exercising Carrasco's $14 million team option for 2023 as a "no-brainer." Carlos turns 36 next March. Tossing out the pandemic season, Carlos has pitched 80 and 53.2 innings in his last two 162-game seasons, and 126.1 so far in 2022. It remains to be seen how many more he contributes this year.
I understand that $14 million isn't a huge outlay for a starting pitcher in today's game. Still, it's hard to evaluate how many innings it might be reasonable to expect from Carlos next year, and at what level of performance. If you feel you could expect around 130 innings at the exactly league-average ERA+ of 100 he's chipped in with this season, it probably is a no-brainer at $14 million. But it wouldn't be shocking to see Carrasco's performance go off a cliff at age 36, either.
I wrote a post on the decisions Billy Eppler's front office must make on the starting pitchers this winter. Pitchers definitely returning are Scherzer, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and David Peterson. Everyone else represents a decision to be made. Moreover, these decisions won't be made in a vacuum.
I think the Mets will probably want an answer on deGrom before they make any other decision. If they can retain Jake, how much they have to pay him will affect other judgments. Presumably, that will be somewhere in the $40-50 million per year range. He's making $33.5 million this year, so that's a healthy jump. But if the Mets hold onto Jacob deGrom, they are looking for third, fourth, and fifth starters along with some important depth. If not, there is more pressure to find a top-quality pitcher to take Jake's place.
