Mike's Mets - How the Dominoes Fall

 

By Mike Steffanos

More thoughts on constructing a Mets starting rotation in 2023. Is exercising Carlos Carrasco's $14 million option for next season really a no-brainer?

The New York Mets had a rough time down in Atlanta this week. They lost starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker to injuries in the first two games of the Atlanta series, although it looks like Walker will only miss one start. Their infield defense took a big hit, losing Luis Guillorme and Eduardo Escobar to the I.L. The Mets' offense seems to be in hit-or-miss mode since the series against the Cincinnati Reds with run totals of 1, 1, 6, 1, 0, 9, 2, 7, 8, and 1 through Saturday's doubleheader split with the Phillies. They lost all but one of the games in which they scored 2 runs or fewer.

Meanwhile, the Braves win almost every day. Since June 1, Atlanta's record has been 52-20. Over a 162-game season, that would translate to 117 wins — one game better than the MLB record for wins in a season. Eight of those losses came against the Mets, meaning Atlanta has only lost 12 games against the rest of baseball from the beginning of July through last night's games. I doubt they will sustain that pace for the next month and a half, but I guess we'll find out. I'm not going to go on and on about the Braves here. They are a better team than I thought they were. Not that I ever thought they were nearly as bad as their 23-27 record heading into June, but I thought they were a club that would struggle to reach 90 wins, and that's clearly not true.

My focus is on the Mets, and I believe this past week has raised some interesting questions. One is about Carrasco. Carlos has had an excellent season for the Mets this year. Without him, they might not have survived the Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom injuries.

On the other hand, I'm not sure of the consensus of opinion that sees exercising Carrasco's $14 million team option for 2023 as a "no-brainer." Carlos turns 36 next March. Tossing out the pandemic season, Carlos has pitched 80 and 53.2 innings in his last two 162-game seasons, and 126.1 so far in 2022. It remains to be seen how many more he contributes this year.

I understand that $14 million isn't a huge outlay for a starting pitcher in today's game. Still, it's hard to evaluate how many innings it might be reasonable to expect from Carlos next year, and at what level of performance. If you feel you could expect around 130 innings at the exactly league-average ERA+ of 100 he's chipped in with this season, it probably is a no-brainer at $14 million. But it wouldn't be shocking to see Carrasco's performance go off a cliff at age 36, either.

I wrote a post on the decisions Billy Eppler's front office must make on the starting pitchers this winter. Pitchers definitely returning are Scherzer, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and David Peterson. Everyone else represents a decision to be made. Moreover, these decisions won't be made in a vacuum.

I think the Mets will probably want an answer on deGrom before they make any other decision. If they can retain Jake, how much they have to pay him will affect other judgments. Presumably, that will be somewhere in the $40-50 million per year range. He's making $33.5 million this year, so that's a healthy jump. But if the Mets hold onto Jacob deGrom, they are looking for third, fourth, and fifth starters along with some important depth. If not, there is more pressure to find a top-quality pitcher to take Jake's place.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

New York Mets: Crop Report (Part 2)

We looked at some of the Mets of Today and Mets of Tomorrow in terms of the position players... now... I'd like to look at the starting pitching situation, as it relates to the minors. I think that there are going to be various opinions on the gentleman of Generation 2K... please take my views for what they're worth... nothing. There are a TON of names... so forgive me for focusing on only my favorites (whom I see in Savannah or above).

Starting Rotation:

Johan Santana - Expiration Date 2010
Even a positive guy (when it comes to the Mets) like me can tell that Johan's best... great... and good days are all behind him. What is left is a pitcher who I have faith could be PRETTY good and above average in the middle of most rotations. The major hope with Santana is that he's healthy in 2012 which is NO sure thing.

Jon Niese - Expiration Date (Distant)
Niese is the only pitcher in the rotation right now that I think is a part of the "Met Future". You'll recall I have posted multiple times calling on the Mets to trade him (and still would) if they could get a player like Travis D'Arnaud, Jesus Montero or Wilin Rosario. You'll notice there are some reasonably GREAT names on this list of starters and I didn't bother listing a SINGLE catcher on my other list (Though I considered adding Albert Cordero).

R.A. Dickey - Expiration Date 2013 - 2015
I might not be the only one who is ready to extend R.A. beyond 2012. He's a knuckler and has extended longevity and he's a good human being and leader. I would like a player like Dickey in the rotation when pitchers like Familia, Harvey, Mejia, Wheeler etc... come up.

Mike Pelfrey - Expiration Date 2010 - 2012
Do I think Pelfrey is done? Depends on your definition of done. He's just not good enough to be anything more than a #5 pitcher and he's getting paid too much for what he is. He IS still a perfectly fine #5 pitcher.

Dillon Gee - Expiration Date 2013 - 2015
I am not a Dillon Gee believer. I anticipate that the S.S. Gee will hit an iceberg early in Spring Training and we'll all remember why none of us saw his 2011 success coming.

Chris Schwinden - Peak Ripeness 2012
Schwinden reminds me a lot of Gee and for good reason. He doesn't have a lot of "Stuff" but what he does have... is more "Stuff" than Gee. So... if Gee implodes in 2012 we have someone in the wings... assuming he's not already in the rotation because of injuries.

Pedro Beato - Peak Ripeness 2013
Alderson seems intent on trying an experiment with Beato. He wishes to convert him BACK into a starter. You can all forget Beato starting in 2012 but if ALL goes well... he could be back in the majors in a rotation as early as 2013. That assumes that ALL goes well... which is pretty far-fetched.

Collin McHugh - Peak Ripeness 2012 - 2013
McHugh is an interesting pitcher. In terms of "Stuff" he falls around Schwinden (slightly above) and he's a similar style pitcher in that he knows his way around the zone. McHugh is not and never will be an "Ace" but I would bet more on McHugh making it as a starter in the bigs than a number of other guys on this list. At best he fits into the #4 spot of the rotation but the hope is that he'd be no more than a #5 for the future Mets.

Jeurys Familia - Peak Ripeness 2013
Familia is going to start in AAA and will have a chance to break into the bigs based on how he does in the first few months of the season (Spring Training included). I'm still betting that Familia will eventually fall into the bullpen but that has more to do with me not seeing THREE pitches on the level of his fastball. If he can develop his secondary offerings he could be a #2 pitcher as soon as 2013. The Mets may need him sooner.

Matt Harvey - Peak Ripeness 2013 - 2014
My favorite Met prospect (I'm sure I'm not alone in that) is likely to start the year in AA. If Harvey can channel his success of 2011 in A+ baseball then he should be promoted by mid-year to AAA or EVEN the MLB. The Mets are being more cautious with Harvey (because of where they drafted him) than with Familia. That's fine, I don't think that rushing Harvey serves the team very well. Still... he could justify a 2012 promotion without it being a "RUSH".

Jenrry Mejia - Peak Ripeness 2012 - 2014
I like Mejia a ton but his injury pushes him down the charts. Still if he returns to health and glides as easily through AA as he's glided through other levels of the minors... he will probably get a call from Flushing in 2012 before the end of the season. I am one of the few people who write about such things who has more faith in Mejia being in the Met rotation long-term than say... Wheeler. If he struggles in 2012... he WILL be converted into a reliever.

Zack Wheeler - Peak Ripeness 2014 - 2015
Zack Wheeler has done nothing as a Met to inspire me to have anything short of extreme faith in him. He has earned his right to start 2012 in AA and will even benefit from the presence of pitchers like Harvey, Mejia and Gorski surrounding him. BECAUSE they are there he is a guy the Mets have no need to rush and I doubt that Wheeler will see a promotion to AAA before the end of 2012... though it wouldn't be impossible.

Darin Gorski - Peak Ripeness 2014 - 2015
The Miracle success of 2011... well... in the minors. Gorski is a lefty control pitcher who destroyed 2011 hitters in Port St. Lucie. He won all sorts of awards and is a MUST for making the 2012 AA roster. Looking at his stats... you wonder where it all came from. He went from distinctly mediocre to relevant on a major level in a very short time. Perhaps he figured something out? Perhaps he made a pact with Beelzebub? I don't care... if he pitches that well in AA... he has a future in Flushing.

Brandon Moore - Peak Ripeness 2013 - 2014
Moore probably wouldn't be listed if I hadn't WATCHED him pitch in person. He REALLY isn't half bad. He's got control and the ability to draw swings and misses with his breaking pitches. He's not likely to be anything more than a AAAA pitcher at any point.

Armando Rodriguez - Peak Ripeness 2015 - 2016
Try as I might, I can't promote Armando beyond A+ ball yet. He will get that promotion as soon as there is room. He's fine, if a little vanilla, but I think he COULD have a future in the back of a major league rotation... maybe.

Gregory Peavey - Peak Ripeness 2015 - 2016
Peavey was very good in Savannah in 2011 before stumbling a bit in Port St. Lucie. All in all... nothing to complain about. "The Other Pitcher" from the Harvey draft is flying under the radar because the Mets have some BIGGER stories in their minors for a change. That suits me fine as Peavey can get a pressure-less chance to find his footing in Port St. Lucie. If his 2012 goes well I don't think he'll stay off the radar for long.

Taylor Whitendon - Peak Ripeness 2015 - 2017
I thought about adding Taylor's picture because I happen to REALLY like him as a pitcher but as he's not yet pitched in A+ or above I felt it was premature. He seems like he could rise up a lot with a good 2012.

Chase Huchingson - Peak Ripeness 2016 - 2017
I cam even closer to posting a picture of Huchingson who excites me as much as Taylor but is also a lefty. Chase split time starting and relieving in 2011 so I'm betting he repeats Savannah to get more innings as they decide if his future is in the rotation or the bullpen.

Erik Goeddel - Peak Ripeness 2015 - 2017
Why am I less interested in Erik Goeddel than Taylor Whitendon or Chase Huchingson? Frankly... I don't have a reason.

Domingo Tapia - Peak Ripeness 2017 - 2018
Tapia is part of the NEXT big crop of talent coming through the pipeline. Fulmer, Urbina and Morris might all meet in Kingsport or Brooklyn in 2012 but I'm betting Tapia makes his way onto the Savannah rotation. He sits comfortably in the mid 90s and has toughed 100 MPH on his fastball. He's even supposed to have a pretty solid secondary offering for his development level. I don't think he's a sure thing, but like most people, I have him as a sleeper on my radar.

AAA, Bufalo Bisons:
1. Chris Schwinden
2. Miguel Batista
3. Colin McHugh
4. Pedro Beato
5. Jeremy Hefner

AA , Binghamton B-Mets:
1. Jeurys Familia
2. Matt Harvey
3. Jenrry Mejia (Mark Cohoon to start the year)
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Darin Gorski

A+, Port St. Lucie Mets:
1. Armando Rodriguez
2. Gregory Peavey
3. Taylor Whitendon
4. Angel Cuan
5. Yohan Almonte

A, Savannah Sand Gnats:
1. Gonzalez Germen
2. Erik Goeddel
3. Chase Huchingson
4. Marcos Camarena
5. Damingo Tapia