Hot Stove: Team Targets Peralta, Aceves, Brewers/Astros Shying Away from Davis.

     According to Nick Cafardo via Twitter, the Mets are interested in Red Sox RP Alfredo Aceves. After closing and converting 25 saves for the Sox in 2012, Aceves began the 2013 as a starter replacing the John Lackey in the rotation for the first but relationships between him and the Red Sox front office soured as the season went on. In July, Aceves claimed he was suffering from some sort of injury that was unknown to manager John Farrell. The controversy led him to be outrighted to AAA and placed on the 7 day DL for the remainder of the season. In his 11 appearances last season Aceves was 4-1 with a 4.86 ERA and a near 1:1 K to BB ratio.

(Sounds like another version of Frank Francisco if you ask me. As with Chris Young, if you can sign him to a minor league deal then fine bring him on board. However, anything more then that is not worth the possible headache considering the large number of young pitchers we have now and in AAA that can contribute.)

     According to CBS Sports John Heyman, SS Jhonny Peralta was spotted in Orlando, Florida and the team secretly met with the free agent to discuss his interest in joining the Mets. However Buster Olney, via Twitter, reported yesterday that the shortstop's representatives are apparently seeking a 3 year deal for $45M or more.

(Aye aye aye....$15M a season is up on the high side for Peralta and could be too rich for my blood. Alderson would be wise to wait it out and see how the market responds to Peralta's demands. We have to remember that the longer Stephen Drew sits on the market the more his price will be hurt by the Qualifying Offer he received. No need to panic here, continue being patient.)

     The Milwaukee Brewers seem to have changed their stance and are now interested in bringing back 1B Corey Hart for the 2014 season. At this point in time, John Heyman believes, that the Brewers prefer to sign the free agent rather than give up the pieces needed to trade for 1B Ike Davis. The Houston Astros do not seem to be a fit either as a potential trade partner. However, Metsblog's Anthony Vazzano via Mike Francesca, caught wind of discussions between the Mets and the Baltimore Orioles surrounding a trade centered around OF Nick Markakis. 

(Yes!! This is where releasing who your meeting with and how many teams are interested in helps out tremendously. Here we are at the beginning of the off-season thinking Davis had 0 trade value. Then we hear about a potential Davis for Aoki swap, then its Davis for Fowler, all of a sudden 5 teams are interested, and now his price tag has been driven up so much that we're talking about Markakis, a consistent .290 avg, 15 HR, strong armed former Gold Glover OF who is coming off a "bad" season which he still hit .271.)

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 11-5-13 – 2014, David Lennon, Bill Geivett, Jhonny Peralta, Amed Rosario

I sense a different policy coming out of Sandy Alderson's office this year. He would have never talked about giving up a draft pick in the past. I think they know exactly what direction they are going... sign one 'qualified offer' player, lose their 2nd round pick, and then sign additional players below that level.

The Mets must replace the loss of Marlon Byrd with a big name and then, not stop there. That simply would represent a breakeven position. No, there are at least two 'bats' being added to this team, either on the corner outfield positions, first base, or shortstop.

I just feel it.

 

Rocco asked –

                Mack, love the site. First time email.

A lot of you think that the Mets might spend enough money to fill up all ‘the holes’. Do you agree with them?

                Mack – Welcome Rocco. I’m not sure anyone thinks the Mets will spend what they should. What there has been is a lot of pipe dreaming about what each poster wishes the Mets would do.

I try and look realistically at this team while, at the same time, try and predict what Sandy Alderson will do rather than what I would do. Don’t believe what you read sometimes. The Mets are going to spend around $45mil tops for new talent. My guess is it will even be more in the $40 range.

As a past businessman, I fully understand the desire the Mets front office has to heal financially and because of the lack of long term salary commitments, they have a chance to move closer to a break even profit and loss statement this year.

I think the Mets will make pre-season 2014 decisions based on the mid-season projected 25-man roster. Three new players (SP Noah Syndergaard, P Rafael Montero, RF Cesar Puello) will join the team and all will be team controlled for years to come. Knowing this, the Mets are free to spend in the $14-19mil/yr. range for at least two prime ‘bats’, either through a trade or free agency.

I believe that Alderson is committed to playing Juan Lagares in centerfield, with Matt den Dekker as his backup. Den Dekker also gives the Mets an additional quality late inning defensive substitution at either of the corner positions. We’ve learned the hard way that close games have been lost in the past due to shoddy outfield defense. Lagares, den Dekker, and Eric Young Jr. have turned that image around in one season.

I think a new outfielder will fill one of the corner positions and Young will play in the other until Puello is promoted. It will be Young’s job to lose and he will lead off until or if that happens.

The other looks to be a replacement at shortstop. My guess is this will be a free agency pick.

The only other monies I see being spend would be for a ‘temporary’ starter and maybe one power relief arm. In a perfect sense, the Mets could have seven starters (Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Jenrry Mejia, and new guy) and we didn’t even menton Jerremy Hefner.

Trade wise, Expect one of our second basemen to depart (Daniel Murphy or Wilmer Flores) as well as one of the first basenen (Ike Davis or Lucas Dudu)., I expect a starter to depart as well

This is my spin… today .

 

Qualified offers -

1. Carlos Beltran: Beltran hit 24 Home Runs to compliment a .296/.339 line with the national league champion Cardinals. He is a strong candidate to accept his offer since he is unlikely to beat this deal elsewhere and he can remain with St. Louis to try to chase a World Series ring.

2. Robinson Cano: As a 31-year-old and the best Free Agent on the market, Robinson Cano is guaranteed to turn down his qualifying offer. The Yankees will either resign him or they will gain a compensation pick at the end of the first round.

3. Shin-Soo Choo: At 31-years old and as a 20 home run bat with a .423 OBP, Choo is guaranteed to turn down his offer. He may be the best all around long-term outfielder with age, durability and talent all taken into account.

4. Nelson Cruz: Mired in injuries and a steroid suspension, Cruz has played in more than 128 games in a season just once in his career. He may be a candidate to accept his offer and hit Free Agency as a 34-year-old at the end of 2014 after a full season to regain his value.

5. Stephen Drew: Drew has had an OBP over .326 and hit more than 15 HR just once in his career. At 30-years-old, he’s not a slam dunk to accept or reject his offer, but he would undoubtedly be one of the worst values in exchange for losing its first round pick to a new team should he turn down his offer and sign elsewhere.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury: A 30-year-old Scott Boras client, coming off a World Championship and with a natural replacement waiting for the Red Sox, Ellsbury is guaranteed to turn his offer down, gain the Sox a pick and get himself paid.

7. Curtis Granderson: One of three Yankees, Granderson was hit by two different pitches and missed most of the season. There’s an outside chance he accepts his offer, but will still likely turn it down since he can do a lot better than $14.1 million on the open market, even with a draft pick riding on it.

8. Ubaldo Jimenez: Jimenez will turn 30-years-old in January and is coming off a season with a 3.30 ERA, 9.6K/9 and 182.2 innings, his most since 2010. Expect Jimenez to easily turn down his offer and seek a long-term deal in Free Agency.

9. Hiroki Kuroda: Kuroda is only seeking one year deals at this stage if he decides to stay in the states. Still, by accepting the offer he would be taking almost a one million dollar pay cut despite being the Yankees’ ace. He will turn this down, but may not go anywhere in the US except the Bronx.

10. Brian McCann: McCann will be 30-years-old before Opening Day but as the top catcher in Free Agency, he will get a long-term deal somewhere for a lot more than his qualifying offer. No chance he accepts and he’s unlikely to return to Atlanta.

11. Kendrys Morales: The 30-year-old already took his one year deal to boost value in 2013 and he responded with 23 home runs, 80 RBI and a .277/.336 line. Morales will turn down his offer and sign a multi-year deal elsewhere.

12. Mike Napoli: The final of the three Red Sox and like Ellsbury, Napoli is going to turn down his qualifying offer. Unlike Ellsbury, it’s very likely Napoli signs a multi-year deal to return to Boston.

13. Ervin Santana: For a starter turning 31-years-old Santana is very likely to cash in on a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 211 innings. There is no chance this offer is accepted and Santana will sign a multi-year deal.

http://baseballnewssource.com/trade-rumors/cano-ellsbury-lead-list-of-players-with-qualifying-offers/27133/

 

David Lennon –

SHIN-SOO CHOO, CF With a .423 on-base percentage and 107 runs, Choo is a favorite of the analytic crowd. Also showed decent pop with 21 homers, including 11 away from the Reds' home launching pad. Even more valuable to a city with a large Korean fan base that could boost ticket sales. (Hint, hint). - Prediction: Mets, six years, $105 million

JHONNY PERALTA, SS Another member of the Biogenesis bunch; that should knock a few bucks off Peralta's market price. But he combines a solid glove with this season's .815 OPS, so that should convince teams to gamble, especially ones looking to fill a glaring need on the cheap. Prediction: Mets, two years, $19 million

Mack – Wouldn’t this be nice. 25% of your everyday players are locked up with genuine stars of the game. You could play EJY until Cesar Puello was ready to give him a fight for left field and all you have to do in this off-season is decide who is going to be your SP5 until Noah Syndergaard grows up.

Young, Murphy, Wright, Davis, Choo, d-Arnaud, Peralta, Lagares

 

Bill Geivett - of Colorado Rockies –

“Our needs are starting pitching, late inning relief (maybe 2 guys), and a corner bat. We'd listen on trading Tulo and Cargo but the likely scenario is that they're with us"

Mack – Well, Sandy Alderson can’t help here with a corner outfielder and, frankly, the Mets have their own relief problems.

I still think the best way to approach Colorado is to avoid any discussion on either Tulowitzki, or Gonzalez. You have two outfielders (Michael Cuddyer, Dexter Fowler) entering the last year of their contract.

The simple deal for one of them would to offer two ‘corner’ dudes… Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy.

At any point you could replace one of these names with any pitcher other than Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Dillon Gee, Jon Niese, or Noah Syndergaard.

You would also have to re-negotiate a couple more years here to make it worthwhile for the Mets. A 3-4 year deal with the 27-year old Fowler could move Juan Lagares to right and create quite the defensive outfield.

 

MetsBlog –

                The Detroit Tigers will not make a qualifying offer to SS Jhonny Peralta

                Mack – It makes sense. Detroit has budding star Jose Iglesias in the wings and Peralta’s 50-game suspension doesn’t play will in mid-America towns like Detoit.

                This is one less roadblock for the Mets to get this one done and I frankly thin this could be the first announcent of their FA season. I’m thinking a little bump over the qualifying offer figures and give im $15mil a year for two years with a team option in 2016.

                2013: .303/.358 OBP/.815 OPS, 11 home runs and 55 RBI in 448 plate appearances.

 

Fangraphs –

In sum, Amed Rosario is a player who already shows a diverse skillset. He has bat speed to burn, and his size and strength give him the potential to provide above-average power for a middle infielder. He’s also fairly polished for a 17-year-old, as evidenced by his ability to demonstrate his tools against much older competition in 2013. On the flip side, there’s a lot for him to work on, but it’s all just a matter of slowing the game down, refining, and gaining consistency rather than innate athletic deficiencies, and he has a lot of time to smooth out those rough edges, to say the least.  He has a long way to go, but his ranking as one of the top short-season prospects is well-deserved, and I expect his raw statistics to improve in 2014 with a year of adjustments and reps under his belt. Rosario should already be a target for deep-league dynasty owners looking to jump on the best of the newest crop of international prospect, and he’s still a player to track for those in shallower prospect formats, as he’s a definite 2014 breakout candidate.

Mack – This is the second big time prospect piece on some prospect we didn’t realize was in this organization. One blog site already has him playing Brooklyn next year and I’ve read him as high as Savannah. Frankly, if this kid really has what I takes at 17, slow him down and send him back to Kingsport for the first half of the abbreviated 2014 season. You can always send him up in Brooklyn if he comes out of the box in in Tennessee.

Either way, his ETA wouldn’t be until 2018.

The LTJ Editorial: “Don't underestimate Murphy; put him at first”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 11-1-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“Don't underestimate Murphy; put him at first”

 

For the past few years, the New York Mets haven't had a permanent nor consistent playmaker at first base. We saw a glimpse of hope back in 2010 when First Baseman Ike Davis was called up to the majors and made a serious impact on the team. Right before the 2010 All-Star Game, he had the second most HR's of any rookie in team history with 11. I specifically remember his defense was on point, he was patient with every at-bat, and he came through in clutch situations. Sadly, the following year in 2011, he was hit with a severe ankle injury and hasn't been the same since. Sure, in 2012 he hit a decent .227 with 32 HR's but in 2013 he was at his worst. It was so bad, I don't even want to mention his stat line since it was a definite decline from years past. Davis was demoted to AAA and had to earn his way back up to the majors. What happened? My theory is it's all in his head. He seems to lack the confidence that he can be a solid and consistent player. If he just focused on making the right choices in key situations he would be fine but he always looked lost and confused. He didn't stick to his original batting stance and changed it up almost every few games. Even Keith Hernandez questioned who, what, where, and why did his batting stance have no consistency. Davis's defense was atrocious and all across the media, people were demanding change. That change came by way of First Baseman Josh Satin.

Satin was called up to replace Davis, much to the cheers of Mets fans across the nation to bring some kind of redemption out of first base. He was someone who was doing good in AAA and earned an opportunity to help contribute to the team in the majors. He definitely impressed, he was getting his hits, played pretty good defense, and also made a Mets rookie record! He had a streak going on 29 consecutive games he started in which he at least got on base until it ended. Once the streak ended (Ironically once Davis was recalled up to the majors and got his starting spot back almost immediately) he started to struggle a bit. Satin lost that streak he had when he first arrived and just became another name at first base where he faded away. The Mets played the new game of shuffling first basemen based on who was pitching since once excelled over the other based on righties versus lefties. I've always said that while Satin did provide a spark at first base, he was better as a quality backup or used as a pinch hitter. Perhaps he needs more time in the minors, I just don't see the superstar potential of him just yet.

As we all know, the Mets plan to spend some serious money this offseason to start building the necessary pieces to contend for a championship in the next few years. 2014 seems to be the year but it could be 2015 or beyond, who knows. It's not going to happen overnight, but the plan is to bring in some much needed top talent to compliment the pieces we already have. One interesting scenario has been the possibility of trading away more talent to get either pieces we need now or future draft picks. The most common name has been Second Baseman Daniel Murphy. He had a pretty solid season for the Mets with a stat line of .286, 188 hits, 38 doubles, 4 triples, and 13 HR's. With a solid .319 OBP he definitely was a consistent player. Many suggest that the Mets could ship Murphy to a team that desperately needs an established second baseman and acquire some minor league talent for pitching, relief pitching, and the outfield. I don't think the Mets should trade him at all, he has been an asset to the team and continues to improve steadily. I actually thought about a scenario that would fix our issues at first base and allow some other popular players a chance to be on the field instead of being just hidden away as depth.

In my mind, this is how I envision our infield according to my scenario:

First Base: Daniel Murphy
Second Base: Wilmer Flores
Third Base: David Wright
Shortstop: (acquire top talent in offseason)
Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud

I'd move Daniel Murphy to first base since he can definitely handle it and be a fixture there. Wilmer Flores has shown signs of being the next big thing in New York, similar to when we all saw the debut and eventual development of Starting Pitcher Matt Harvey. It would be a shame to just have Flores and his talent be wasted waiting behind David Wright who unless he gets injured, will be playing third base the majority of the time. Speaking of Wright, he isn't going anywhere, he will always be our all-star third baseman. Shortstop is a weak link in our infield, Quintanilla did an sub par job last season and I don't see Tejada being a permanent starter. He just gets into a slump and never seems to bounce back in a positive way. That's why the Mets absolutely need to acquire a solid top talent shortstop in the offseason. Rumors have circulated we could have a reunion with Jose Reyes but I doubt it, plus he is another player who always gets injured and isn't consistent. Throw in the fact that he's coming in towards the latter half of his career. I'd like someone like Jhonny Peralta or even Stephen Drew to be honest. Someone who can hit, be good defensively, and steal some bases! Finally, I think d'Arnaud will turn into a solid catcher but will need another year or so to keep at it. Experience behind the plate will only help his progression. He should be our permanent main catcher for these next few years.

Murphy at first base would finally put an end to the slumps there, blunders on defense, and bring more of a successful presence there. I don't want to see him go since we absolutely need him to keep building around our core. So far it's shaping up nicely, like I said, just an idea I think would work while we bring in a quality shortstop, one starting pitcher, a few outfielders, and of course, a relief pitcher or two. Let us all see what the Mets have in store for us, bidding wars for the top free agents in MLB starts this coming Tuesday, November 5^th, 2013.

Let the races begin! Before you hit the gate, trust me, leave Murphy at first base, he's got this!