

The first true concrete trade rumor has flown off the Mets Rumor Mill last night. In his written article for the New York Post, Joel Sherman suggests that the team views Davis as a "change of scenery"" guy and a potential move could involve sending him to Milwaukee in exchange for Brewers RF Norichika Aoki. However would this trade make sense on both sides?
Currently the team has a logjam at 1B with Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and potentially even Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores. After blasting 19 HR in his rookie campaign and 32 HR in his sophomore season, Davis went ice cold with only 9 HR in 2013 and was even demoted. His swing and plate approach seemed to change weekly and he looked lost in just about every plate appearance.
However, a 30+ HR hitter doesn't just disappear. This could be just as much of a detriment to the team's hitting coach Dave Hudgens for his failure to help Davis figure it out. A move to Milwaukee's Miller Park could also help Davis as the stadium is more favorable to HR hitters according to RotoGrinders. Citi Field was also ranked as the worst place for Left Handed Hitter last season with a 0.89 Park Factor, whereas Milwaukee was tied for 7th best with a 1.03 PF.
Norichika Aoki, meanwhile, is a consistent around above average RF. His stats for his 2 seasons with Milwaukee are below:
|
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
BB |
K |
|---|
2012 |
0.288 |
0.355 |
0.433 |
10 |
50 |
30 |
43 |
55 |
2013 |
0.286 |
0.356 |
0.370 |
8 |
37 |
20 |
55 |
40 |
This looks like your prototypical lead-off hitter doesn't strikeout, has a healthy on base percentage, and steals bases. Even better, with his 2014 option being picked up, Aoki is only slated to make $1.5M this season. However the Brewers aren't exactly overstaffed in the OF.
With the return of LF Ryan Braun, the Brew Crew have a starting OF of Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Aoki and a bench of Logan Schaefer and Khris Davis. However Davis had an extremely strong performance filling in for Braun during his suspension and hit .279 with 11 HR in his rookie campaign.
Although it is a small sample size, He did hit .350 in the minors in 2012 though and, according to David Grant of ReviewingtheBrew.com, could have the potential to be a 30+ HR, 100+ RBI hitter with full time work. This leaves Aoki as the 4th OF on the team.
Lastly we have to look at the Brewers 1B situation. In 2013, Juan Francisco and Yuniesky Betancourt manned the corner and both were dreadful both offensively and defensively. After coming over from the Atlanta Braves, Francisco hit .221 with 13 HR and a -8.7 UZR at 1B. Betancourt meanwhile hit .212 with 13 HR as well and a -2.7 UZR. Betancourt is now a free agent which leaves the team with only Francisco and their catchers as the only listed 1B on the roster. Steamer projections estimate that Francisco will only hit .239 with 21 HR next season while continuing his bad play at 1B.
On paper, this actually looks like a good opportunity for both clubs. Minute Maid Park would be beneficial to Ike Davis' left handed power and fills a huge hole at 1B while only adding $2M in payroll, while Aoki, could slot in as a major leadoff Left Field upgrade over Eric Young Jr. (who only had a .293 OBP in the leadoff spot) while actually saving the team some money to use on a power hitting RF.