Paul Articulates - A brave new world

The bottom fell out yesterday for the New York Mets of 2025.  The ink was still wet on Edwin Diaz’ $69M deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers when word hit that Pete Alonso had reached agreement to become a Baltimore Oriole.  Then the other shoe hit – the Mets had lost three of their minor league prospects in the minor league rule 5 draft.

Before getting into the implications, let’s go through the recent events:

Edwin Diaz chose to accept an offer from the Dodgers for a three-year contract worth $69M, which is an AAV of $23M.  Diaz was making $18.5M AAV with the Mets and had two years plus a club option remaining when he exercised an opt-out provision in his contract to test the market.  The Mets were active in the negotiation with Diaz, and knowing the resources available to the Mets’ leadership, it is not likely that they were unable to afford the raise.  No, I would suggest that Diaz did not want to return.

Pete Alonso has flirted with free agency for two years now, looking for a deal that would give him and his family a lifetime of security.  It was clear that there were several teams interested, including the Mets.  Pete signed for five years, $155M.  Not many details of the contract are available, but unless there is significant bonus money involved, it would be an AAV in excess of $30M per year.  For reference, Freddie Freeman is making $27M per year through the 2027 season.  We may never know how competitive the Mets’ offer was, or how strong the pull of the New York fans was for Pete.  The deal is done, and Pete is no longer a Met.

Three Mets’ minor leaguers were among those unprotected in the organization that were tapped in the rule 5 draft:

RHP Trey McLoughlin:  Trey pitched with both the St. Lucie Mets (low A) and the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (AA) last season.  He had a 2-0 record with a 4.09 ERA in 22 innings with the AA team.  He was very well thought of in the organization and had received an invite to play in the prestigious Arizona Fall League in 2023.  McLoughlin will be 27 this summer.

RHP TJ Shook: Shook was a relief pitcher who was obtained in a mid-2024 exchange of minor league pitchers with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Shook spent the 2025 season closing for the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies with 7 saves in 9 opportunities, logging a 2.34 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 50 innings.  Shook was a late bloomer, with his recent success coming after several years moving through a variety of teams.  He will be 28 years old next season.

RHP Dylan Tebrake: Tebrake was an eighth round pick out of Creighton in the 2022 draft by the Mets.  He was a high K-rate pitcher in the lower minors (St. Lucie, Brooklyn) until he was sidelined for the 2024 season due to injury.  Last year he made a brief return, logging four innings with St. Lucie, but was expected to be healthy this year.

The Mets also poached two pitchers in the rule 5 draft, RHP Justin Armbruester from the Orioles and LHP Aaron Rozek from the Yankees.  

The rule 5 transactions were just part of the normal process of MLB teams mining for gold by trying to identify talent that they can mold into someone of value to the organization.  The free agent losses were enormous in proportion to the rule 5 activity.  But there is a common element, and that is change.

When the 2025 season ended, David Stearns vowed to do a full analysis of the root causes for the very significant meltdown the team experienced.  The real results of that analysis are privileged information to the ball club and there are probably very few people who really know what the details of that analysis are.  But the actions that have transpired over the last few weeks – the trading of Nimmo for Semien, the departure of Diaz and Alonso, and probably more player movement to follow points to a pretty clear objective.  Stearns decided to make major changes to the construction of this team – from the core on out.

Mets fans will surely struggle with the loss of some real fan favorites.  All of us had embraced them as key parts of the journey towards a championship that has not been celebrated in 40 years.  However, the leadership showed that they did not have confidence that this was the right roster to get there, and last year’s results justify that position.  It is going to be hard to watch further dismantlement of the team, but at the same time there is an underlying hope that this next iteration will be stronger and more likely to compete for the title.  Only time will tell as the new coaching staff works with new acquisitions and the advancement of some top minor league prospects.

Paul Articulates - The cost of replacing Pete Alonso

There is a lot of buzz this offseason about what Pete Alonso will do.  Will he re-sign with the Mets?  What will he be offered by other teams?  What is his real value?  Was 2024 just an off-year or was it the beginning of his decline?  The answers to these questions are pure speculation because the story will not be known until it is history.

So without adding to the speculation, I thought it would be reasonable to determine all of the factors that the team must consider if they were to replace what Pete brings to the team.  Some of those factors could be obtained in a single replacement player, but no one has exactly the same game, so some of what Pete would bring to the team would have to be replaced by others in his absence.

What does Pete Alonso bring to the Mets?

1) A power bat for the middle of the lineup.  Pete has a career OPS of .857, driven by a .341 On-Base Percentage and a .516 Slugging Percentage.  He has hit 264 home runs in his career and driven in 712 runs.

2) A below average fielding first baseman by any published metrics but he has very good scooping skills for balls thrown in the dirt.  His fielding metrics are primarily driven by his lack of range (speed, quickness) and his tendency to rush throws to a pitcher covering which drives up his error rate.

3) A New York City fan favorite that brings in millions of dollars in attendance, branded merchandise sales, and advertising.

4) A generous personality who is very active in local charity work that enhances the team’s reputation.

5) A humble spokesman who represents the Mets admirably in all public appearances.

How do the Mets replace these five things if Pete Alonso decides to accept another offer?

1) A power bat for the middle of the lineup may be the easiest thing to replace.  We have already read many articles about players like Kyle Schwarber being available in free agency, so one could argue that the HRs, RBIs, and OPS could be replaced in full by a Schwarber.  Of course, Philadelphia’s DH, has not demonstrated any skills as a first basemen.  Others that have credible first base on the open market that have power stats would include aging players like Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt, and Donovan Solano who are all 38 years old or above.  Those who are in their early thirties like Pete would include Rhys Hoskins, Ryan O’Hearn, Dom Smith, Josh Bell, and Ty France.  Only Hoskins, with a career OPS of .819 comes close to Alonso’s power production.  So clearly the offensive load would have to be carried in part by other Mets if one of these replacements were chosen.

2) A better fielding first baseman is certainly possible.  Of the players mentioned above in the power category, O’Hearn (+4 DRS), Bell (-4 DRS), Hoskins (+2 DRS), and Smith (-1 DRS) are average fielders which is somewhat better than Alonso (-9 DRS).   Having seen them play, only Smith stands out as someone on par with Pete for scooping balls in the dirt but they would add range and a few less errors.  For balls not scooped, the error goes to the player making the throw, so the statistical impact would be borne by the other Mets infielders.  The fielding gem out there is Ty France (+9 DRS), but of the five categories listed he is only going to solve one or two.  

3) Replacing one of the main faces of the franchise is a hard thing to do.  Yes, the team will still have guys like Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto.  But there was a certain connection between Alonso and the blue-collar Mets fans that would be difficult to replace.  Trade unions might boycott the project to move the fences in (wink).  In all seriousness though, there would be an impact to the revenue stream if the Mets lost Pete.

4) Both number 4 and number 5 are intangibles.  There are many players that contribute to the team’s reputation through their charitable work and their public persona.  There’s just no one quite like Pete – as humble as he is powerful and someone that cares about the city.  Like item 3, there is an economic impact to losing someone that draws fans closer to the team but this part is less quantifiable.

To summarize the five categories, the cost to replace Pete Alonso on the team will be difficult to bear.  Since there will always be a trade between power bat and slick fielding (unless we can steal Freddie Freeman), Pete will have to be replaced by more than one player.  Possibly a strong field, less bat first baseman in combination with a power hitting DH.  The farm has some candidates, but Ryan Clifford is not going to be ready to star in 2026 and others that could convert to the position need thousands of reps to acquire the necessary skills.

I am sure there is a very detailed analysis of all the potential candidates, their strengths, weaknesses, and calculated value to the club that exists in a folder on David Stearns’ desk.    As the free agent market develops over the next several weeks, that folder will become very worn as countless possible solutions are evaluated.  I hope that the outcome will be one that restores #20 to the roster.

Paul Articulates – Another shot?

Time moves on and there are still free agents out there and there are still teams signing players.  The biggest news of course concerns the players that are not yet signed.  At the top of that list is Pete Alonso, who has been the topic of thousands of articles this off-season.  And it appears that they will keep coming, because neither the Mets nor any other teams seem to be close to signing him.  During the recent winter event at Citi Field, Steve Cohen went on record to say how difficult the negotiations have been and did not cast a very positive light on resolution.

Simultaneously, word came out that both Mark Vientos and Brett Baty have been asked (and agreed) to start working in earnest to learn the position at first base.  This could be a tactic to create pressure in the negotiations, it could be sound risk mitigation, or it could be the team coming to grips with the fact that Pete Alonso may not be manning the bag this season. 

Now we have all speculated that one solution to that last option is to move Mark Vientos to first base, and most of the comments we have seen on this site have recognized that it would be a viable solution, particularly if it resulted in the signing of a talented free agent (Arenado or Bregman) or the advancement of a prospect like Mauricio or Acuna.  

The real twist here is the mention of Brett Baty in that communication as part of a dual option for manning first.  It wasn’t stated as Vientos at first with people like Baty competing for a chance.  It was about both of them learning the skill and proving how well they can apply it this spring.  It says that Brett Baty, two strikes into his promotion into major league baseball, is still a very real part of the player evaluation system on this team.  We have not heard anything about him being moved elsewhere other than the usual random speculation by writers seeking attention, so I think the Mets are serious about giving Baty another shot.

Baty has the physique of a first baseman – tall with long limbs to stretch for balls on close plays.  He has many years of fielding ground balls at the other corner so the hot shots should not be an issue.  He has the power that is desired of first basemen if he can fix that hole in his swing and start consistently putting the barrel on the ball.  In his minor league career, he has slashed .283/.382/.507.  That is an OPS of .889 which is usually good enough to translate to some success in the majors.  Why it hasn’t happened yet probably has a lot to do with the mental side of the game more than the physical.  It also doesn’t say that he can’t become that solid major league player that was projected during his rise through the development system.  It just has not happened yet.  The Mets may be willing to take a chance that it will.

What do you think?

Paul Articulates - The upper hand

Before the 2024 season, the Mets had an opportunity to extend the contract of Pete Alonso while he was still under team control.  Pete and his agent Scott Boras rejected an offer for a 7 year, $158M extension that would have kept Pete in Orange and Blue for the rest of his baseball career.  At that point, Pete had most of the season in front of him, and with his productive history at the plate, it seemed like a savvy business move.

As we all know, Pete played out the season, but had a down year, which did not help his negotiating position as a free agent.  His 2024 season average was nine points under his career average, his home run production was the lowest since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and his slugging percentage was a full 55 points below career average.  This created concern among many that had followed the statistical decline of several power hitting first basemen in their 30’s.  Was Pete on the decline?  Should he really get a long term contract with an AAV like Freddy Freeman ($27M) or Matt Olson ($22M)?  

The leverage pendulum seemed to be swinging back the other way.  But wait, this is the era of unbridled spending for free agents.  Teams routinely overpay on long term contracts for players that can give them a big boost on the front end.  Surely someone like Pete Alonso could give any team a boost in the next couple years.  

Pete’s market seemed to still be alive, as there were teams that desperately wanted a power bat manning the first base bag.  The cross-town Yankees were ready to turn the corner from Anthony Rizzo, the Astros seemed to be thinking the same about Jose Abreu.  The Red Sox tried four first basemen in 2024, and finally played the last half of the season with old friend Dominic Smith.

Recently, the free agent market for first basemen began to move.  The Astros signed Christian Walker to a three year deal with a $20M AAV.  The Yankees added both Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt (1-year, $12.5M).  Josh Naylor (1yr/$6.5M) went from the Guardians to the Diamondbacks to fill Walker’s slot and then Carlos Santana (1yr/$12M) went to Cleveland.  Now the Nationals got Nathaniel Lowe (2 seasons of team control remain - 2025 at $7.5M) in a trade with Texas.  So it seems that many of the teams with a void at first base have found short term help.

Where does that put Alonso and his leverage for a multi-year contract with a high 20’s AAV?  There still appear to be three teams besides the Mets that would benefit by spending for Alonso.  The Sox, the Mariners, and the Marlins could all use first base help.  Of the three, only Boston has the financial might to command the big multi-year deal.  So that pits the Boston Red Sox against the New York Mets to convince Pete Alonso to sign.  Certainly the Mets would have the upper hand, given Pete’s affinity for New York, his experience with the clubhouse, and the promise of a very competitive team for years to come.  The only play that Boston has is money.  And with the aforementioned risk of decline, would they be willing to outspend Steve Cohen for one player when they need much more than that to compete in the AL East?

My money is on Steve to put his money on Pete.  I think Alonso stays in New York, but not for 7 years at $180-$200M because Alonso no longer has the upper hand in this negotiation.  It may be shorter and a lower AAV than Freeman but it will be longer and higher AAV than Walker.   I would love to hear your opinion.  

Paul Articulates – Will the Yankees poach Pete?

There have been frequent discussions in the media about whether the Mets can retain Pete Alonso now that he has become a free agent.  These discussions have centered around what Pete (through his agent Scott Boras) will ask for in both dollars and length of contract.  Other discussions have been linked to the pursuit of Juan Soto, implying that money that could go towards retaining Alonso would be spent instead on sweetening the pot for Soto.

Here is another angle.  What if the New York Yankees go all out in pursuit of Pete Alonso?  Of course the Yankees are also trying to sign Soto, but they have a real advantage there.  The Yankees have had Soto during this World Series run and he has proven to fit well on their team.  The fans have certainly embraced him.  Yankee management have budgeted for Soto, and they are not afraid to put plenty of digits on a contract.  So if that money is already baked into the plan, and Soto by himself will not get the Yankees to another World Series, what will they be looking for?

Look no further than first base.  Anthony Rizzo has been a complete non-factor in the playoffs for the pinstripes.  Somehow he has compiled a .267 batting average but none of the hits contributed to anything of significance.  Zero RBI, a .300 slugging percentage, and two runs scored.  Defensively he has been below average.  The Yankees don’t accept that kind of mediocrity.  They need a replacement, and Pete Alonso looks like a great fit.

The short fences in Yankee stadium will boost Alonso’s already impressive power numbers.  Imagine 81 games per year in that enticing arena.  The city already loves Pete – imagine the jersey sales if he hits 50 homers next year.  Bronx Bombers takes on a new dimension with Judge, Alonso, and Stanton hitting 3-4-5.  The Yankees have a $17M club option next year on Rizzo.  Most estimates put Pete Alonso’s new deal in the $24M range for average annual value, so it is not outrageous to think that the Yankees would spend another $7M on putting a much better player at first.

Here is the upgrade comparison based upon 2024 regular season statistics:

Anthony Rizzo: 35 years old, .228/.301/.335 slash line , 81 OPS+, 0.2 WAR, -2 OAA

Pete Alonso: 29 years old, .240/.329/.459 slash line, 123 OPS+, 2.6 WAR, -9 OAA

I could put more statistics up here, but the point is already clear.  Pete Alonso would bring a significant performance upgrade to an already powerful lineup on the other side of the city, so expect Hal Steinbrenner to be extremely aggressive going after him.

That puts the pressure on the Mets leadership.  Yes, one can argue that Vientos could move over to first and still provide power there.  Yes, one can argue that Alonso is entering his 30’s next year and there is data showing that power hitters decline in their 30’s.  Yes, one can argue that despite improvement Pete is not a gold glove caliber first basement.  But Pete is a folk hero with Mets’ fans.  He brought excitement when the team was not winning.  Now that they are winning, it seems contrarian to walk away from that – even with some kind of analytical value analysis that puts his worth below his asking price.  

I don’t envy the tough decisions in the coming month that face the Mets’ front office.  All I can do is vote with my heart.  Keep Pete!!

Paul Articulates – First in my mind

There are always many topics to discuss as spring training winds down.  The players have had several weeks now to round into baseball shape, refine their swings or throwing mechanics, and renew their competitive spirits.  The player development and coaching staffs have almost wrapped up their evaluation phases, and are ready to make the final roster adjustments from the majors down through the minors.

Until the dust settles, there are always many articles written speculating about what choices the management should make, and there are opinions, and that is a lot.  The choices that come to my mind first are the one that involves the first base position.  Here is what the Mets are faced with:

Pete Alonso is entering his final season of team control under a $20.5M contract that was agreed upon prior to arbitration earlier this year.  We have all heard the rumors about whether or not he has received an extension offer from the Mets or not, have heard directly from David Stearns that he “Hopes Pete makes his job harder by having a great season”, and heard all the negativism about Pete’s agent Scott Boras.  

We will never really know what is going on behind the scenes, but we do know that if Pete has a monster season, it will take a boatload of cash to keep him in Flushing.  

I think everyone in the Mets organization wants him around (as I do) but things get very tricky when there are bidding wars going on.  So unless there is a surprise announcement within the next three days, Pete will enter the season without an extension, forcing the Mets to choose to either trade him at the deadline for a generous reward of prospects or go to the auction house with everything they have to sign him for life.

Jose Peroza , Luke Voit, and Daniel Palka played the majority of games with the AAA Syracuse Mets at first base last year.  Peroza and Palka chose free agency at the end of the season so they are no longer with the team.  I don’t expect Voit to be around either after batting just .118 with two extra base hits in spring training as of yesterday.  That leaves the position open to a few key prospects to vie for the heir apparent position if Pete leaves town at the trade deadline.

Mark Vientos has played some first base with the big league club, and seemed slated for the DH role this year until the late signing of JD Martinez which got Mark assigned to AAA.  One would expect that he would get most of the reps in Syracuse to be the insurance policy against injury or trade because frankly the Mets don’t have a backup first baseman right now.

Ryan Clifford came over to the Mets in the trade that sent Justin Verlander to the Astros last year.  There was so much buzz about Drew Gilbert that not much was said about Clifford, but upon a deeper look Ryan could be the sleeper in that trade.  Clifford is currently ranked as the Mets’ number 4 prospect (two spots behind Gilbert) in the MLB 2024 prospect rankings.  

Ryan has shown some serious power with an .848 OPS in his minor league career, belting 24 home runs in A ball last year.  He impressed the scouts in the Spring Breakout game as the starting first baseman and could soon be moving quickly up the ranks if the reports are accurate.  Ryan recently spoke with the Binghamton Rumble Ponies’ Jacob Wilkins at the Mets’ spring training complex – click on the interview below to see what he has to say.

 Ryan Clifford Spring Training Interview.mp4

JT Schwartz is a talented hitter and an outstanding defensive first baseman in the Mets’ system.  Schwartz played almost the full season last year with the AA Rumble Ponies and despite missing weeks with a quad injury he put up some very good numbers, slashing .302/.383/.437 and being a big piece of their playoff run.  Schwartz also had the opportunity to play in the Arizona Fall League last year where he was selected to the all-star team.  I have written about Schwartz before, calling him John Olereud without the batting helmet which is some pretty high praise.  

Unfortunately Olereud played when it was acceptable for a first baseman to be hit first, power second.  Current thinking is that 1B is a power hitting position so for Schwartz to break into the majors he may have to put some more lift in his swing.  Can he do it?  At 6’4” 225lb I think he can.  Let’s watch how this plays out.  Here is his interview with Jacob Wilkins below.

 JT Schwartz Spring Training Interview.mp4

So the many decisions are upon the Mets’ player development and coaching staffs as well as the front office.  Do we keep Pete and roll the dice on having the most attractive FA bid at the end of the year?  Do we trade him at the deadline for another haul of prospects?  If so, do we elevate Mark Vientos to the MLB first base job or would Schwartz or Clifford be ready for that spot?

Time will tell, but for now this is the toughest set of choices for the Mets’ organization.

<By the way, do you like these prospect interviews that have been shared with us by the Binghamton Rumble Ponies?  If so, I have posted all of them on the side bar for your viewing and listening pleasure.>

Remember1969: The Pete Alonso Conundrum

 

The Polar Bear Conundrum

Some thoughts before the walk year starts

By now, if you don’t know that Pete Alonso will be a free agent at the end of 2024, you must be living under the rock that is on one side of Pete, on the other side of his hard place.  

There has been a lot of discussion about what to do with him – trade him now for best return, wait until the trade deadline and ship him off for prospects or just wait until the end of the year and risk losing him to free agency and getting a compensation pick in next year’s draft.

But while all those are great discussions for the fans and the arm-chair general managers, Pete himself has a few things to look at.     It has been well documented that he switched agents to Scott Boras who always encourages his players to go to free agency and prices them as high as he can to get the most money for the player (and himself). 

Recently, free agency has taken a little different look than it showed in its first 40 or 50 years of operation, particularly in the Scott Boras camp, in that more and more players are unsigned well into the offseason and even as spring training starts.   This has to give pause to Pete and his thinking.    While Alonso has a skill that is quite rare on the market – the ability to hit 50 home runs a year, he still needs to read that market and decide if Boras is doing the right thing with his clients.  

 There was recently a good article by Bill Madden in the NY Daily News with the title of “Teams not willing to play ball with Scott Boras and his ridiculous asking prices”    Link here

 If anyone thinks Pete is different, I’d argue they need to think a bit closer.    The following list of names should raise red flags: 

 (Note, there are really no good statistical comps here for Alonso, but these can be used to demonstrate the process)

Bryce Harper:   While this is 5 year old news, Harper went through a dry off season in 2018-19 with numbers like $400 or $500 million being thrown around before signing on March 2 for less than $30M per season (for 13 years).   He was much younger and much more accomplished at the time of free agency.   

Cody Bellinger:    Just signed a three year deal with the Cubs for around $80M, a far cry from his reported asking price of $200M for the former league MVP.   

Blake Snell:  The current NL Cy Young Award winner:    Unsigned, rumors are he has had only one or two offers, neither close to his $270M asking price.

Jordan Montgomery:    Made his name as a solid starter on the World Series champion Rangers in 2023.    Asking for Aaron Nola money – approaching $200M

Matt Chapman:   Name has been tossed around, but teams seem to be looking at the bad stuff  (low batting average, poor 2H2023) more than his gold glove and very good power numbers

J.D. Martinez:  Looking for a lot of dollars for a one-dimensional player, even though power is the name of the game these days.

Michael Conforto:  Pete’s former teammate found no takers and sat out a full season after declining the Mets qualifying offer.     He will probably not be the last good player to sit out a year. 

Even Brandon Nimmo who re-signed with the Mets after entering free-agency might be good guy to chat with.   I would love to hear “the rest of the story” about his FA experience (although I never will).    Being the cynic I am, I sometimes wonder if he was spooked by his pal Conforto’s situation and when he didn’t have multiple big offers by early December, decided to go the safe route.    Can Alonso learn a thing or two here?  (of course I could be very wrong here, but …)    

Are teams shying away from playing the game Boras has been so good at for 20 years and not believing there is really a mystery team out there?   Or are teams just getting smarter and thinking that paying players top dollar for their age 30 and above seasons is not the best financial plan?

 If I am Pete Alonso, I am going to look at this and do some deep, deep thinking.   When he reads that Steve Cohen says that Pete is an important part of the Mets and would like him to be a Met for life, I would probably ask him now what his best offer is and perhaps try to talk him into a bit more, but I’d think very seriously about signing that contract very soon.   Next winter could be pretty ugly.     

Paul Articulates - Do something, for Pete's sake!

Pete Alonso is not happy.  That is not a good thing for New York Mets fans.

Why do I think Pete is not happy?  It is not because he is splintering bats over his knee or smashing a helmet in the dugout.  That’s just frustration talking from a guy who takes pride in what he does and hates to fail.  Pete wears his emotions on his face.  He has several displays – frustrated, focused, energized, and angry.  Lately he has displayed some anger and disappointment, but very little other emotion.  When he chats with opponents on first base, you can usually see a little bit of a smile or a laugh – but not in the last month or two.  When he circles the bases after a home run, you can usually see some satisfaction or an energized look – but not in the last month or two – he still looks pissed.

Why is Pete not happy?  Well, like most Mets fans he certainly has frustration about this season.  It has not played out well for the team, and although he is still putting up impressive power numbers (on track for 40+ HR and 100+ RBI) he is not carrying a batting average (.224) or OPS (.856) that he expects to at this point in his career.  They are both below his career averages of .254 and .878.  But that kind of frustration creates resolve and I don’t see resolve in his face.  Something else is bothering Pete.  

Pete is coming up on his last year of team control – after the 2024 he will have obtained enough MLB experience to be an unrestricted free agent.  The Mets have not yet offered him an extension that we know of and it is getting late for someone who is at the core of this team.  This could make him unhappy if there are discussions going on behind the scenes that are making him feel undervalued.

Pete has been the subject of some unfriendly rumors over the last few months – a ridiculous attention-seeking claim by Sal Licata that he was part of a “toxic” environment in the clubhouse.  Other rumors had him being offered in trades, of which none have come to pass.  This would make anyone unhappy, but players are instructed to ignore the media because the media by nature is critical and can get under someone’s skin in a hurry.

I am not going to speculate about the source of Pete’s unhappiness because I don’t know and I’m not afraid to admit it.

I will make some projections though – if Pete remains unhappy things will not go well for this team.  Pete is a power-hitting star with an extremely relatable personality that is the perfect match for the big city team.  He is not only a run producer for the club, he is a box office draw like few others, especially since Jake left town.  There are other great first basemen in MLB and some of them may be better players, but Pete is the best piece the Mets can put in the right corner of their infield. Period.

One thing that could make him happy of course is winning – but that’s not happening this year as the retooling is already in process.  Another thing would be an extension.  That’s going to be a tough decision for the Mets’ leadership as articulated in Mike Steffanos’ article on August 17th.  Pete is a 28 year old power hitter that has the leverage to demand a long term, high dollar contract but the book on power hitting players that preceded him says that they lose effectiveness fairly early in their 30’s.   It is likely that any contract he would accept is going to be overvalued in the final few years.  To me, that’s a price worth paying.  The Mets need that power bat to build a winner around now.  They need the star power to draw the crowds, rake in the revenues, and headline the advertisements.  Waiting for the bidding war to start at the end of the 2024 season would be a regrettable decision.

Paul Articulates – For Pete’s Sake

The New York Mets have had a very rough season – we all know it.  You have read plenty of stories about their epic failures from pitching collapses to hitting woes to the disappointment of having the highest salaried team in history win less than half of their games.  It is another “bad break” in the history of a team that specializes in bad breaks.

Sometimes the reaction to such a season is for people to call for the heads of the GM and manager, to demand a purge of all the underperforming players, or a fire sale to begin rebuilding. I understand the emotional reaction to such disappointment.  I accept it as part of human nature.

But here is one thing I don’t accept – people suggesting that we trade Pete Alonso to get a bucket of prospects.  Pete is currently in a terrible slump that has brought his batting average down to .205 and the harder he tries the worse it gets.  Pete has rewarded fans in the past with his heroics so it is even more frustrating to watch him pop out or strike out with runners in scoring position.  But this is a slump, not a manifestation of his true baseball abilities.  

Pete is a legitimate power hitting baseball star that you want on this baseball team for many, many years.  The fans want to see him hit; the owner wants to see his box office draw; the teammates want him in the clubhouse.  Do not EVEN think of moving him!

We should be talking contract extension, not trade value.  That was the talk at the end of last season – did you forget that quickly?  Pete has 4.0 years of MLB experience in a game where you can become a free agent with more than 6 years of MLB experience.  

He has avoided arbitration in the last two seasons by agreeing to one year contracts of increasing value as his value increased.  His current year salary is $14.5M.  That puts him behind Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Joey Votto for average salary per contract year.

Before we get into how much he is worth and what Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler should be offering, let’s talk about Pete’s value in the market.  The table below shows some of the noteworthy first basemen in baseball today.  I have created an “equivalent seasons” metric by dividing the number of career games played by 162 to normalize for the shortened 2020 season and injuries so we could look at a pure metric for the performance delivered.  

In that table, you will see that Alonso leads all of these guys in average HR and RBI per equivalent season.  That’s right – we have a 28 year old ballplayer that produces more power and runs per game than anyone else and he loves playing in New York.  We should go to great lengths to keep him.

So what is Pete worth in a contract extension?   Freddie Freeman’s $162M six year contract with the Dodgers was the most lucrative deal with a first baseman to date.  Freeman is an exceptional player that delivers gold glove quality defense, a lifetime .300 average, and some serious power with his .899 career OPS.  Goldschmidt is earning $22M this year and next and still producing in his mid-30’s.  Matt Olson seems like a bargain at an average of $21M/year with the power numbers he is producing this year.

Pete has delivered more home runs than anyone else in the last five years.  He has continuously improved his fielding and his batting for average with the exception of the current slump.  If you remember earlier in this year he was touted for being able to go with pitches away instead of trying to pull them.  His injury history has proven his durability – his only notable IL time has been due to HBPs.  He is a great clubhouse guy – always positive, supportive of his teammates, and very real in live interviews. 

I think that any long term extension will have to be in the $25M/season ballpark and given his age and durability will probably have to be an 8-10 year deal.  That is a $200M to $250M commitment, but given the contracts that Lindor, Scherzer, and Nimmo have been given it seems like the price of doing business when you are building a winning ball club.  Another one-year extension would have to be over $20M anyway, so why not offer the full monty this year?  So the Mets’ front office should dump some salary at the trade deadline and spend it a long term deal for Pete – they will not regret it.

The Mets and Mental Health by David Jacks

It's a passion, a love, an addiction, but being a die hard fan almost always ends in anguish. Bottom line, your team is not winning the World Series this year and probably not for the next decade. The Yankees and their fans have experienced more championships than any other team in baseball, and even those fans have witnessed far more seasons ending before the ultimate glory. In the end it's going to hurt, but for that one year. That one miracle team, the one time when the "bad guys" won, for that it's all worth it. Or is it? 

Twenty years ago I met a fan just like me. Wins brought us joy, losses ruined our day. We discussed every nuance of the game, knew every hitter from the Mets minor league team to the major league club. We lived and died with Mets baseball. I never actually spoke to him outside of Mets season, but when spring came we fell right back into our usual flow. Mainly we talked baseball, but slowly our actual lives trickled into the conversation. In those early days we talked about our relationships, our dreams and of course Benny Agbayani. Recently he told me of his fathers passing, and I shared with him my parents slow decline into dementia. Through it all we were bonded by our love of the Mets. 

And then, in 2023, with no fanfare, he decided he'd had enough. Just like that. He'd seen too many years end in devastation, he'd had too many Sunday afternoons ruined by games he had no control over. He decided to reclaim his life and to leave the Mets, and in turn, me behind. I miss my friend, and I've reached out to him several times this year. He's happy to be free of his fandom. I can relate. I absolutely love watching the Mets, but there is no doubt at times it feels like I've imprisoned myself. I HAVE to watch, and my mood is often commingled with a group of men who don't know or even care about me. Or do they?

This brings me to Wednesday April 19th. My six year old daughters first ever Mets game. I'll never forget mine. My dad, who couldn't care less about sports took me. Not surprisingly he mistook the start time and we showed up in the 6th inning, but as I walked through the tunnel and saw that green grass out at Shea I didn't care that we were late. I was gobsmacked. I was hooked. This was my holy place. I loved everything about it. The manicured lawn, the players flicking a wrist and the ball impossibly landing right in another players mitt hundreds of feet away, the smell of the peanuts and all the fans there, just like me, to "catch the energy." My daughters day was a little different.  She was focused on cotton candy, ice cream and a tie die Dodger's hat (blasphemous). 

And then something happened. I picked her up on my shoulders and told her to wave to Lindor, and he waved back. It was a small moment but her eyes lit up and she smiled and said, "he waved to me daddy, Fran Lanbor, waved to me.” A small gesture but it was greatly appreciated, he made her day, thanks Fran Lanbor. As I continued to watch Francisco Lindor and Luis Guillorme toss the ball to each other with such precision I was transported back to my first game, back at  Shea where six year old me marveled at these world class athletes. I was lost in a daydream, until my daughter elbowed me back into reality. and said "Daddy Fin Labrador is pointing at you." I replied “ Haha no honey he's not point at ...oh my god I think he is." He was. He was pointing RIGHT AT ME, then he motioned to my daughter and then he proceeded to toss a ball over the netting 25 rows back perfectly placed right into my bare hands (I caught it by the way). In my 40 years of going to games not once had I ever caught a ball.

I wish my friend had been there with me, as he was at Shea so many times. I wish my dad had been there like he was 40 years ago. I'm so glad I got to share that experience with my daughter. I'm so glad Francisco realizes the impact he can have with such simple but generous gifts. It was, for me, a simple  moment that will forever be etched in my mind. 

And then something else happened. In the third inning Pete Alonso flicked a ball into the stands and it was headed right for us. I was about to catch ball number two when a Braves fan (because of course) knocked into my daughter and I. He spilled her ice cream and of course he got the ball. But then he saw her tears and he too was transported back to reality. He gave her the ball, he bought her a new ice cream, and added a beer for dad. Another small but kind gesture. My daughter left her first game, ironically in the 6th inning with two baseballs. I have no idea how any game will ever live up to that, but I imagine it won't have to. A core memory has been made, just like mine was 40 years ago. 

When we got home she told mom that she got two balls but the Mets lost, surprising to me because WE did not lose. She was excited again to find out the Mets won, but it hardly mattered to her the way it does me. For her it's just fun with her dad, and ultimately I'd like to give her the gift of having it stay that way. I think my friend has it right. Having your day changed by 26 men you don't even know is lunacy, but for me, it's too late, I'll always die hard. LETS GO METS!

Mike's Mets - Decisions, Decisions: Position Players

 

By Mike Steffanos

We complete our three-part series on the player decisions the Mets will face after the 2022 season, focusing on position players.

In parts one and two of this series, we looked at New York Mets starters and relievers that would be free agents following this season. Today we wrap up with a look at the position players. Unlike the pitching staff, where the Mets front office will be forced to make several important decisions, there is only one significant position player reaching free agency: CF Brandon Nimmo. But Nimmo is an important player, indeed. Brandon is one of the offensive catalysts for this club and, as a bonus, turned himself into an excellent center fielder.

Nimmo is still a bit of a polarizing figure among Mets fans. While most acknowledge Brandon's skills as a ballplayer, his limited home run power and unwillingness to utilize his speed as a base stealer are checkmarks in the "against" column. But the biggest argument against signing Nimmo to a deal is his yearly struggles to stay off the Injured List. Brandon played 140 games in 2018 but hasn't topped 100 games in any season since.

Nimmo dealt with a bulging disk in his neck in 2019, ultimately appearing in only 69 games that year. He played in 55 of the 60 games in 2020, then the injury bug struck again in 2021. Finger and hamstring woes limited Brandon to 92 games.

So far in 2022, Nimmo has been relatively healthy, although he did struggle a bit with a wrist injury early in the year. Still, Brandon has appeared in 75 of the Mets' 83 games so far. If he can avoid missing a big chunk of time over the rest of the season, it will undoubtedly enhance Nimmo's asking price in free agency. Still, it won't erase concerns about Nimmo becoming this generation's Jacoby Ellsbury.

Ellsbury was a talented CF with the Red Sox who was signed to a 7-year, $153 million contract by the Yankees before the 2014 season. Injuries limited Jacoby to playing in only 520 of 972 possible games. He didn't play at all for the last three years of the contract. Even when he did play, Jacoby Ellsbury was relatively ineffective, slashing .264/.330/.386 for the Yankees in contrast to the .297/.350/.439 line he put up in 7 years with the Red Sox. Ellsbury's injury problems didn't begin with the Yankees, but he averaged over 100 games per season in Boston, which is better than what Nimmo has managed with the Mets so far.

So, the dilemma for Billy Eppler and the rest of the Mets' brain trust will be to decide what value to place on Brandon Nimmo's undeniable skills and how to mitigate the risk of Nimmo's proclivity for injury. Brandon will play next season at age 30. It would be nice to assume that Nimmo has turned the corner on injuries if he avoids them this season. However, it is a rare ballplayer who deals with fewer injuries in his 30s than he did in his 20s.

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Box Score and Recap: Nationals 4 Mets 3 - 9/6/2021

 

 

The Mets are in Washington to play the Nationals.  It's the final game of the five game series. 

Today’s Lineup: Jonathan Villar 3B; Francisco Lindor SS; Michael Conforto RF; Pete Alonso 1B; Javier Baez 2B; Kevin Pillar CF; Jeff McNeil LF; James McCann C; Trevor Williams P;

Box Score and Recap: Mets 13 Nationals 6 - 9/5/2021

 

 

The Mets are in Washington to play the Nationals.  It's game four of the five game series. 

Today’s Lineup: Jonathan Villar 3B; Francisco Lindor SS; Pete Alonso 1B; Michael Conforto RF; Javier Baez 2B; Jeff McNeil LF; Kevin Pillar CF; Patrick Mazeika C; Taijuan Walker P;

Metstradamus - Will There Be Earplugs?

 By metstradamus | August 30, 2021 7:04 am

It just might be because I’m getting old, but I can’t remember the last time I booed a Mets player.

I mean sure, I marched down to the Mets dugout in Washington and fired Jerry Manuel, but honestly, who hasn’t?

But, and I’m only speaking for myself, I’ve thought for a long time now that booing your own players should be limited to an obvious lack of effort, and embarrassing yourself and the franchise with an egregious act of stupidity off the field. That said, booing as an act of frustration at the end of ballgames after long losing streaks, for example? Hey, it happens. I’ve always thought that a lot of booing is just that. Frustration. I know a lot of booing that happened in seasons like 2020 were more directed at the Wilpon family and Brodie Van Wagenen. Heck, if people like that were made available to boo at, maybe while they’re sitting in a dunk tank, it would deflect a lot of booing from the players. If I could sit a Mets player past, present or future down and warn him of this, I would. Don’t take it personally.

But Javy Báez took it personally.

Uh oh.

I don’t expect Javy to understand the frustration of the Mets fan. He’s been here for a month while we’re here forever. We were here before him, and we’ll be here long after he leaves. I also don’t expect him to understand the New York fan base after playing his entire career in the city of Chicago. Chicago is a great sports town, but there’s a lot of “midwest polite” in Chicago. It’s not New York. New York is tough, sometimes unfairly so. But they’re honest. That’s why there was such frustration about Pete Alonso’s positivity after the Phillies series. While I thought Pete was coming from a genuine place with those comments, a lot of fans took it as Pete peeing on their leg and telling them it’s raining. I understand that completely.

Mets fans will love you forever if you produce. They’ll love you forever if you understand them. And they’ll love you forever if you’re a husky pitcher who hits a home run because you have too much pride to keep striking out while your helmet flies off. But Mets fans will also be honest with you. Maybe all Báez was doing was giving the fans a little honesty of his own. Was he right? Maybe. Are fans who think it is never acceptable to boo a player for striking out right? Probably. But it’s not about what I think or what you think or what Javy thinks things should be. It’s about the way it is. The way it is is that if you come across as being against the fans, then the fans are going to be against you ten times as hard. Javy should have realized that, and now he’s going to hear about it on Tuesday.

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