Paul Articulates - A brave new world

The bottom fell out yesterday for the New York Mets of 2025.  The ink was still wet on Edwin Diaz’ $69M deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers when word hit that Pete Alonso had reached agreement to become a Baltimore Oriole.  Then the other shoe hit – the Mets had lost three of their minor league prospects in the minor league rule 5 draft.

Before getting into the implications, let’s go through the recent events:

Edwin Diaz chose to accept an offer from the Dodgers for a three-year contract worth $69M, which is an AAV of $23M.  Diaz was making $18.5M AAV with the Mets and had two years plus a club option remaining when he exercised an opt-out provision in his contract to test the market.  The Mets were active in the negotiation with Diaz, and knowing the resources available to the Mets’ leadership, it is not likely that they were unable to afford the raise.  No, I would suggest that Diaz did not want to return.

Pete Alonso has flirted with free agency for two years now, looking for a deal that would give him and his family a lifetime of security.  It was clear that there were several teams interested, including the Mets.  Pete signed for five years, $155M.  Not many details of the contract are available, but unless there is significant bonus money involved, it would be an AAV in excess of $30M per year.  For reference, Freddie Freeman is making $27M per year through the 2027 season.  We may never know how competitive the Mets’ offer was, or how strong the pull of the New York fans was for Pete.  The deal is done, and Pete is no longer a Met.

Three Mets’ minor leaguers were among those unprotected in the organization that were tapped in the rule 5 draft:

RHP Trey McLoughlin:  Trey pitched with both the St. Lucie Mets (low A) and the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (AA) last season.  He had a 2-0 record with a 4.09 ERA in 22 innings with the AA team.  He was very well thought of in the organization and had received an invite to play in the prestigious Arizona Fall League in 2023.  McLoughlin will be 27 this summer.

RHP TJ Shook: Shook was a relief pitcher who was obtained in a mid-2024 exchange of minor league pitchers with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Shook spent the 2025 season closing for the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies with 7 saves in 9 opportunities, logging a 2.34 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 50 innings.  Shook was a late bloomer, with his recent success coming after several years moving through a variety of teams.  He will be 28 years old next season.

RHP Dylan Tebrake: Tebrake was an eighth round pick out of Creighton in the 2022 draft by the Mets.  He was a high K-rate pitcher in the lower minors (St. Lucie, Brooklyn) until he was sidelined for the 2024 season due to injury.  Last year he made a brief return, logging four innings with St. Lucie, but was expected to be healthy this year.

The Mets also poached two pitchers in the rule 5 draft, RHP Justin Armbruester from the Orioles and LHP Aaron Rozek from the Yankees.  

The rule 5 transactions were just part of the normal process of MLB teams mining for gold by trying to identify talent that they can mold into someone of value to the organization.  The free agent losses were enormous in proportion to the rule 5 activity.  But there is a common element, and that is change.

When the 2025 season ended, David Stearns vowed to do a full analysis of the root causes for the very significant meltdown the team experienced.  The real results of that analysis are privileged information to the ball club and there are probably very few people who really know what the details of that analysis are.  But the actions that have transpired over the last few weeks – the trading of Nimmo for Semien, the departure of Diaz and Alonso, and probably more player movement to follow points to a pretty clear objective.  Stearns decided to make major changes to the construction of this team – from the core on out.

Mets fans will surely struggle with the loss of some real fan favorites.  All of us had embraced them as key parts of the journey towards a championship that has not been celebrated in 40 years.  However, the leadership showed that they did not have confidence that this was the right roster to get there, and last year’s results justify that position.  It is going to be hard to watch further dismantlement of the team, but at the same time there is an underlying hope that this next iteration will be stronger and more likely to compete for the title.  Only time will tell as the new coaching staff works with new acquisitions and the advancement of some top minor league prospects.

Mack's Mets feature: Hot Thread

We are in the “Hot Stove” season, where every conversation centers around the latest news in MLB trades and free agent acquisitions.  

Often we will include a feature where our writers discuss what is happening, but this year we want more involvement from the readers.

We have combined two traditional features, “Hot Stove” and “Open Thread”  into this year’s “Hot Thread” which will run every Tuesday at 6:00am EST.

Considering the recent market activity and knowing your team’s needs, what would your next move be?  Hope we have sparked your interest! Tell us in the comments below.

Last week’s transactions:

Raisel Iglesias recently re-signed with the Braves for one year at $16M.

Baltimore Orioles signed Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28M contract.

      The Cubs agreed to terms with Phil Maton. 2 years, $14.5M.

 

Last week’s rumors:

Fifteen MLB teams showed interest in signing Helsley before he chose the Orioles. 

The Phillies are far from a deal with Kyle Schwarber as many teams show interest 

This week’s questions:

1.  Okay... Helsley is lost. Let's say Diaz dances to another team too. Who, in your opinion, should the Mets go after outside the organization... or, who should they name from within?

2.  How high should the Mets go to ensure that Diaz forgets his dancing shoes and stays in NY?

3.  So, Schwarber isn't a lock for the Filthies. Is he someone the Mets should go after. and, if not, what are your thoughts, going forward, on the 2026 Mets first baseman?

Mike's Mets - Please Move the WBC to the Fall

 

By Mike Steffanos

Feel free to care or not care about the World Baseball Classic. Just move the damn thing to after the baseball season, please.

I remember writing about the World Baseball Classic during my original blogging run. The first tournament was played in 2006, when the Mets looked like a real competitor for a title for the first time in half a decade. The idea of players ramping it up to play a tournament in March seemed absolutely insane to me then, and my attitude hasn't changed over the years since.

The counterargument is that players get hurt in spring training games, also. And of course they do. It happens just about every spring. Competing athletically, even in exhibition games, involves some inherent risk. But the risk is ramped up once you put the stress of competing for their countries onto athletes and ask them to ramp up so quickly to do this at a time of year when that stress is a complete break from normal routines. The WBC simply has to be moved to a different time of year, preferably at the end of the season when a team who has invested heavily in an athlete has the least chance of seeing an injury cost them the services of that athlete during games that count.

This was the first time a WBC occurred in a year when the Mets looked to be a top competitor since the inaugural 2006 event. Yeah, I know the 2017 event took place the spring after the Mets had qualified for the Wildcard Game, but I was somewhat skeptical of their chances that year, even before their vaunted pitchers and key offensive players started dropping like flies.

What is most frustrating here is that Steve Cohen made a very large investment to keep closer Edwin Díaz because his value to the club was irreplaceable. Now the Mets will face an entire season without their closer anyway. And I'm running across several pieces, like this one from Tom Verducci on SI.com and this from Brittany Ghiroli in The Athletic, lecturing me the WBC is not to blame for what happened to Edwin. Yeah, whatever.

I don't love the WBC. I barely watch any of the games, occasionally flipping one on for a few minutes and finding it no more exciting than any exhibition game. I love baseball, but I come at it from having a deep, longstanding rooting interest in what happens to the New York Mets. This was not ideal for many years, but now that Tweedledee and his son Tweedledum have been forced to sell to someone with spare cash and a vision for the franchise, I want to see my club compete for a title. No matter how you frame it, a player lost for the season in an exhibition tournament is unacceptable. So, spare me the lectures on me not loving baseball enough because I don't love the WBC and come up with a solution we all can live with.

I know some fans love this thing, particularly fans with Latin American roots who care what happens when their home country competes. I understand that players love playing for their home country. I don't begrudge any of them what they love. Just please, move the damn thing to November, when I don't have to worry about losing a Mets player for an entire season, as happened with Edwin Díaz. The people who love watching the tournament and the players who love playing in it can get what they want. Seems like a win-win situation. If this thing had taken place in November and Díaz got hurt, at least Mets fans could be hopeful of hearing the sound of trumpets again in July or August.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Mike's Mets - These Aren't the Wilpon Mets

 

By Mike Steffanos

The Mets signing their talented closer to a huge deal so early in the off-season is a welcome change from the parsimony and indecision of the Wilpon era.

Reports are out that the New York Mets have signed closer Edwin Díaz to a five-year, $102 million contract. My first thoughts were about how much the game has changed where even the top closer is worth over $20 million per year. But mostly, I feel grateful that the Mets were able to lock up one of their most important free agents very early. This will allow them to move on to the other consequential decisions they need to make.

Resigning Díaz was arguably the Mets' top priority heading into the offseason. While there is risk involved in investing so much for any reliever, Edwin Díaz has proven that he can handle the New York market. Díaz survived a simply brutal first season in New York — and all of the media types endlessly whining about how they didn't trust Díaz as the closer heading into this season. Not that I totally trusted him but, as I documented a while back, it's not in my nature to trust any closer.

Besides having such an excellent year — the best season by a Mets closer I've witnessed — Edwin Díaz earned some respect from me from being flexible about being used in spots other than the familiar ninth-inning save opportunities. Many closers are resistant to that sort of usage. But with the way the game is evolving, a closer's willingness to step outside of the traditional comfort zone is important. Especially so if said closer is being paid the highest salary for a reliever in MLB history.

The deal is reportedly for 5 years, with a team option for a sixth season at around the same $20 million per. And, of course, there is also reportedly an opt-out after the third year, because every large MLB contract seems to feature an opt-out these days. Díaz would be heading into his age-32 season at that point. It's hard to see Edwin getting an offer for more money at that point. However, if he's pitching really well, he might push to see if he could get another year or two tacked on to the end. If I were the Mets, I'd be leary about going too deep into his 30s while paying Edwin at such an elite level. But that's tomorrow's worry.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Mike's Mets - Decisions, Decisions: Relief Pitchers

 

By Mike Steffanos

We're looking at some tough decisions the Mets front office will need to make after this season. Today we discuss the bullpen arms.

The New York Mets are in the midst of a special season after years of frustration. I'm very much looking forward to watching my team finally take part in the playoffs come October. But I'm also intrigued by the impending free agency of many important players and what that might mean to the Mets going forward. In part one of this series, we looked at the starting pitchers. Now we'll turn our focus to the bullpen, where the Mets must decide how much they're willing to pay to retain some key contributors.

Relievers are an inherently volatile bunch. It's become an accepted truism in baseball that intelligent, well-run teams don't build their bullpens by paying large salaries to established relievers. All too often, these pitchers get hurt or struggle to justify their contracts. Meanwhile, thriftier clubs often find valuable pieces for their bullpen by taking pitchers discarded by other organizations and making changes to unlock their potential. They also take promising arms in their minor league system and successfully groom them for relief roles.

On the other hand, teams willing to spend a few bucks often prefer to have a more experienced closer and some late-game options. For instance, the Dodgers allowed Kenley Jansen to walk away when his price tag got too high but then traded for Craig Kimbrel before the season started. The 34-year-old Kimbrel has alternated success with some massive struggles in recent years. He's been up and down in 2022, but LA is still keeping him in a closer role.

The Mets know something about having a closer struggle. Edwin Díaz has been quite good for the Mets this season but has gone through some tough times since coming over in the Robinson Canó deal in 2019. Edwin heard some boos from time to time, but the fans are really embracing him in 2022. He's rewarded them with some dominating appearances, such as striking out Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto to finish the Mets' combined no-hitter against the Phillies. Díaz has endured a couple of rough patches this year as any closer does, but he's been excellent. That makes his impending free agency after the season a focal point once the season concludes.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Draft 2012: - Edwin Diaz, Chris Phelan, Courtney Hawkins, Tom Murphy, Rio Ruiz

10-24-11: - http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/10/marucci-elite-and-rising-prospects-impress-in-jupiter - FIVE 2012 PLAYERS WHO IMPROVED THEIR STATUS - Edwin Diaz, rhp, Naguabo (P.R.) HS  Live arm with a fastball that touched 94 mph but needs to improve feel for secondary pitches.

10-25-11: - http://www.collegesummerbaseball.net/2011/10/top-20-pitchers-in-atlantic-collegiate.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter  - Top 20 Pitchers in the Atlantic Collegiate Baseball League  2.   Chris Phelan   RHP   Southampton Breakers---Farmingdale State -  Chris (6-0/210 pounds) led the league with a minuscule 0.68 era in 40 innings of work. He also went 4-0 and walked just 4 batters on the summer. for the Breakers. He started 5 games and completed 3 of them for Southampton.

10-28-11: - http://orioles-nation.com/2011/10/26/wwba-2012-highlights  - Courtney Hawkins (Corpus Christi TX; Carroll HS) – Simply a hitting machine.  He is another highly explosive athlete in this draft class that shows the power and speed that teams covet, running a clean 6.6 with almost little effort.  His stroke has improved and is showing plus power in game; solid chance for dual type threat bat with a good deal of pop in the stick.  He has really taken that next step, showing a cleaner approach to the plate. He continues to push his name to the top of the 2012 HS class and is the one player that no scout wanted to miss this weekend.

10-29-11: - http://ht.ly/1fnqBA  We continue the countdown today at number 77 with Buffalo junior catcher Tom Murphy. The West Monroe, New York native attended Central Square High School. He was a three year captain for coaches Kyle Brown and John Jefferies. As a senior, he batted .510 with eight home runs, eight doubles and three triples while being named First-Team All-CNY and CNY Athlete of the Year. As a freshman in 2010, he started 36 games and appearing in six other games. He finished the season with a .313 average while hitting four homers and driving in 25 runs. Murphy had a breakout season as a sophomore leading the Bulls in hitting with a .384 batting average while hitting ten homers and driving in 44 runs. He spent the summer mostly in the NECBL with the Holyoke Blue Sox hitting .285 with 10 homers and 28 RBI. He also played in the NECBL All-Star game against the USA Collegiate National Team. He ended up hitting a long homer off of LSU’s Kevin Gausman. (Video below) After the game, he was added to the USA Collegiate National Team roster. He played in four games (two starts) where he did not get a basehit in eight official at-bats.

10-29-11: - http://www.sgvtribune.com/preps/ci_19221416#ixzz1cBgKjdRI  - Bishop Amat High School quarterback Rio Ruiz suffered a knee injury in Friday's 14-3 loss to Loyola on homecoming, leaving Amat's playoff hopes in jeopardy and Ruiz's immediate future in doubt. Ruiz, named the CIF-Southern Section Division 4 player of the year in baseball after leading the Lancers to the championship last spring, injured his left knee after he was sacked with 5:33 left in the first half.