2/5/17

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS - # 21 GABE YNOA




Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS - # 21 GABE YNOA

We got a little glimpse at Gabe Ynoa as a Mets pitcher in 2016.  I was surprised when he pitched by the low to mid-90's velocity, although it seemed hittable. 

The young righty, listed at 6'2", 205, struggled to a 6.38 ERA in just 18.1 major league IP, with a 1.80 WHIP, but (not surprisingly) won his lone decision.

I say "not surprisingly" because Ynoa wins...a lot.

He is 59-30, 3.36 in his minor league career...add in his major league win, and he has won 2/3 of his decisions. 

Ynoa has had a remarkably low minor league walk rate...but also a remarkably low K rate.  Career, 134 BB in 795 IP (1.5 per 9 IP), but the past 2 years, only 160 Ks in 307 IP (a substandard 4.7 per 9 IP).  (813 innings through age 23 is a lot, by the way.

He did more than hold his own in the pitchers' wasteland of Las Vegas, going 12-5, 3.97, with 170 hits and 78 Ks in 154 IP.  That is far better than Seth Lugo and Rob Gsellman managed in Vegas last year, but they far exceeded Ynoa where it counts by putting up strong results at the major league level.  

Ynoa is 24-16 in AA and AAA, a commendable ratio.  Some guys may just get lucky, but the young fella (turns 24 in late May) must have an extra ability to make wins happen, an desirable quality, since baseball is ultimately about wins and losses.

I've long felt his chances of being more than an end-of-the-pen major leaguer rests on his ability to miss more bats...that he should accept a higher walk rate if he can up his K rate to at least low/average.  His low walk rate also is the reason he has allowed a hair more than a hit per inning in the minors, an unusually high number. 

18 major league innings is unfair to over-assess, but hitters made hard contact on him - he needs to improve on finessing hitters and getting then to chase more pitchers' pitches, like Bartolo Colon did.

As of now, I'd say that Ynoa and Rafael Montero are neck and neck for the non-existent 8th starters' spot, which means if 3 Mets starters were to get hurt, he would be the guy picked to slip into that starting slot...I see Thor, Matz, Jake, Harvey, Gsellman, Wheeler, and Lugo ahead of him.

Gabe (and Raffie, as well as quality tossers in Ricky Knapp and Kevin McGowan) likely will open the season in Vegas.  Gabe needs to get the K rate up, keep winning as he always seems to, and be ready. 

My guess is his ceiling is as a major league back end starter, similar to Dillon Gee, but most likely not with the Mets who, at the current time, have elite arms and more apparently on the way in Dunn, Szapucki, and possibly Molina and Kay.  Winners have a way of exceeding predictions, though.  60-30 is a winner's resume.









Mack Ade – Q and A – Meaningful Games, International Players


Good morning.


Gary asked –

Mack here's a question: do you think it's enough for management that we play meaningful games in September as far as how much they make dollar wise or put another way do you know the financial difference between what they made in 2015 when we went to the WS and what they made last year when we only made it to the WC. To make the signing of a much needed lefty in the pen, and really 2 would be better, about the money is just foolish and to think they paid what... $22 million for this team in 1980 and it's worth 1.5 to 2 BILLION today...Wow

            Mack – Let me break down your question.

1.     The profit and loss statements/situations involving the Mets are about as stealth as missile testing in North Korea. What we can safely assume, is that the team is in the black, even after paying themselves their huge salaries (which are not considered operation expenses).

2.     The pre-season isn’t over yet. And Jerry Blevens and  Fernando Salas have been inked since you wrote this question.

3.     You can’t compare $22mil in 1980 with the value of the team now. The cost of operating this team, paying taxes, debt on the stadium, etc.is completely different. The value of this team is based on the value of the total package before paying off what is owed. That would have to be paid off by the selling team (Mets}.

4.     Lastly, a value of a sports franchise is based on profit per season times a cash flow multiple, which is determined by the economy and banking climate. I sold my first radio station in 1988 for 10 times cash flow… my cash flow was $440K, thus I was paid $4.4mil. I sold my last station in 1990 at three times cash flow because the economy had tanked and, when all the deals were done, I still owed the bank $1mil and they called in the note.

Back to your original question, owning and operating a major sports franchise is an emotional one and every owner wats to win the big one. And no one wants to win it more than the Wilpons.

Mike asked –

I saw last week that the Giants signed 29 year old Korean 3B Jae-gyun Hwang to a Minor League Deal and if he makes the opening day roster he gets $1.5 Million.  Why are the Mets not making more signings like this?  The guy hit .330 with 26 home runs and 104 RBIs in 118 games as well as stealing 24 bases.  Now is he going to do that over here? Probably not but still I'm sure he would provide great depth in the minors especially since the current Mets 3B has a history of back problems.  This is the stuff that bothers me that the Mets don't take more chances with International free agents.  Instead they'll sign someone like Niuman Romero who hit .248 last year.
            Mack – Thanks for the question Mike.

The Mets, especially under Sandy Alderson, never have been a big buyer of players outside the normal Latin American channels, like the Dominican Republic, Curacao, and Venezuela. They especially don’t participate in Asian and European countries that often.
Maybe their lack of success here is part of the reason. Here are the Asian players that have played for the Mets since 2000 and their stat line –
            2000 – none
            2001 – OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo: 400-AB, .268
            2002 – P Satoru Komiyama: 25-G, 5.61  -  
                        P Jae-weong Seo: 1-G, 0.00
            2003 – OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo: 114-AB, .193 –
                        P Jae-weong Seo: 32-G, 3.82
            2004 – P Jae-weong Seo: 24-G, 4.90 – 
                        SS Kazuo Matsui: 460-AB, .272
            2005 – P Jae-weong Seo: 14-G, 2.59 – 
                        SS Kazuo Matsui: 267-AB, .255 -
                        P Dae-Sung Koo: 33-6, 3.91 –
                        P Shingo Takatsu: 9-G, 2.35
            2006 – SS Kazuo Matsui: 130-AB, .200
            2007 – none
            2008 – none
            2009 – P Ken Takahashi: 28-G, 2.96
            2010 – P Hisanori Takahashi: 53-G, 3.61 –
                        P Ryota Igarashi: 34-G, 7.12
            2011 – P Ryota Igarashi: 45-G, 4.66
            2012 – none
            2013 – P Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7-G, 4.42
            2014 – P Daisuke Matsuzaka: 34-G, 3.89
            2015 – none
            2016 – none

Frankly Mike, they haven’t been big spenders in the Latin bonus draft each season. They have been (with their last season stats) -

2016-17:
SS Sebastian Espino - $300,000 – has not played yet
OF Ezequiel Pena - $200,000 – DSL Mets, .103
2B Luis Santana - $200,000 – DSL Mets, .293
OF Jean Carlos Soto - $150,000 – has not played yet

2015-16:
SS Gregory Guerrero - $1,500,000 – DSL Mets, .247
SS Andres Gimenez - $1,200,000 – DSL Mets, .350
SS Shervyen Newton - $50,000 – has not played yet   
     
2014-15:
SS Kenny Hernandez - $1,000,000 – GCL Mets, .203
SS Yoel Romero - $300,000 – 2015 DSL, .194, OOB
SS Edgardo Fermin - $250,000 – DSL Mets, .230
OF Tulio Garcia - $175,000 – DSL Mets, .140
LHP Daniel Guzman - $140,000 – DSL Mets – 3.38
RHP Jhoander Churio - $130,000 – DSL Mets – 2.25
SS Hansel Moreno - $50,000 – DSL Mets, .317

2013-14:
OF Ricardo Cespedes - $725,000 – Kingsport, .322
C Ali Sanchez - $690,000 – Brooklyn, .216
SS Yeffry De Aza - $475,000 – K-Port, .199, Bklyn, .000
SS Luis Carpio - $300,000 – GCL-Mets, .290
RHP Luis Silva - $275,000 – GCL 3.06, Columbia, 2.08
SS Cecilio Aybar - $251,000 – Kingsport, .300

2012-13:
SS Amed Rosario - $1,750,000 – Binghamton, .341
RHP Ronald Guedez - $170,000 – Kingsport, 1.08
SS Franklin Correa - $155,000 – K=Port, .214 -  
3B Walter Rasquin - $140,000 – Kingsport, .294
SS Miguel Patino - $135,000 – GCL Mets, .263
RHP Scarlyn Reyes - $25,000 – St. Lucie, 5.90

2011-12:
C Jose Garcia - $800,000 – Columbia, .200
3B Jhoan Urena - $425,000 – St. Lucie, .225
C Dionis Rodriguez - $185,000 – K=Port, .246, 
LHP Adrian Almeida - $170,000 – K-Port, 6.14
RHP Nicholas Debora - $115,000 – GCL Mets, 4.46
RHP Marcos Molina - $100,000 – DL/St. Lucie

Rosario looks like a future star, and a candle is lit fur Guerrero, Cespedes, and Molina, but, as of right now, none of Sandy’s Latin bonus babies have made it to Queens.


2/4/17

UPDATE - IF - Wilmer Flores


Utility Infielder and fan favorite, Wilmer Flores, has won his arbitration case against the Mets and will receive a 2017 salary of $2.2mil, instead of the $1.8mil offered. 

Congrats Wilmer... and good luck buddy.

UPDATE - RP - Jerry Blevens


It was announced late last night that the Mets have re-signed relief specialist, LH Jerry Blevens, to a one-year (yay!) deal, with a team option (double yay!). The contract is said to be worth $6mil for the 2017 season.

Mack - With the addition of Fernando Salas and Blevens... well, all of a sudden we have our bullpen back.

It will feature Jeurys Famila, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Salas, and Blevens. 

In addition, my guess is it will round out with Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker, and Erik Goeddel.

And, as I said in a previous Salas post, it will allow Paul Sewald and Logan Taylor a full year at AAA to mature.

Lastly, both the Salas and Blevens signings take the pressure off of converting either Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo to a reliever.

Both great moves right before pitchers and catchers are due to report.

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 22 KEVIN KACZMARSKI



Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 22 KEVIN KACZMARSKI



I almost did not pick him because his name is hard to spell, but I got over myself in that regard and picked him at # 22.  The percentage of time I have spelled his name right just about equals his career batting average of .309.



Kaczmarski started out with Pat Mazelka in Kingsport in 2015, and both hit over .350, with Kevin edging out Mazelka by a point for the batting title in the Appalachian League...Batman and Robin - the Dynamic Duo.  


As a 24 year old in 2016, he played in both Columbia and St Lucie. In 175 games in his career, his line is an impressive .309/.381/.451.  The lefty OF has stolen 34 of 49 in those 175 games, with 47 doubles and a Jose-Reyes like 15 triples....but only 6 homers to date.  Defensively, he made just 2 errors in 170 games, so dude has got glove.


He would be greatly benefited in his quest for a major league career by a stellar 2017 season in AA, with added home run pop...15 or more would be nice...so would another batting title.

He is older than Brandon Nimmo, who has a few more years in and has progressed further than Kevin has, but it is not inconceivable that the excellent year Nimmo put up in 2016 could be replicated by Kaczmarski in 2017.  If KK splits his season between AA and AAA, I could see him hitting .310, with 35 doubles, a dozen homers and 20 steals in 125 games. And possibly be a September call up.


To me, I can easily see KK as a possible platoon or reserve caliber major league outfielder, starting in 2018.

Reese Kaplan -- Could Jay Bruce Have a Mets Future?


While many people routinely take potshots at Sandy Alderson for a variety of reasons, he’s actually had a few defenders emerge from the woodwork regarding the whole Jay Bruce situation.  These folks are all pretty much trumpeting the same tune – that Bruce is in a contract year prior to free agency and will likely have extra motivation to do well, you can’t just dump a 30 HR hitter for a bag of balls, and Michael Conforto has not yet done in the majors what Bruce has done for many years.

It’s an interesting conundrum and certainly not the worst problem in the world to have – too many left handed power hitters.  With Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda, the Mets have a triumvirate of 30 HR hitters who, if healthy, could actually propel them out of the lower tiers of run production in the National League.  All three are playing the final years of their contracts before becoming free agents, so it occurred to me to try to ascertain what they might be worth when that time rolls around.

Bruce is probably the easiest one to figure out.  There’s an excellent comp in Baltimore’s Mark Trumbo.  He just re-upped with the Orioles for 3 years and $37.5 million, an average of $12.5 million per year.  For reference, Bruce is making $13 million right now, so that’s right on track with what you’d expect to pay.  How close are they offensively?  Well, the soon-to-be-31 Trumbo averages 34 HRs, 99 RBIs and .251 with 163 Ks.  He provides an OBP of .303, SLG of .473 and OPS of .776.  His one year younger mirror image doppelganger provides 31 HRs, 94 RBIs and a .248 AVG with 158 Ks.  He provides an OBP of .318, SLG of .467 and OPS of .785.  Consequently a 3 year $37.5 to $39 million contract would seem to be what he’s reasonably worth.

Now the question becomes would the Mets be interested?  In Trumbo’s favor he could play 1B or the OF.  He’s spent almost equal amounts of time in both positions whereas Bruce is exclusively an outfielder with just 3 games at 1B.  However, left handed bats are often more difficult to obtain than right handed, so that tips the scales in Bruce’s favor a bit.  Call it a wash.  That brings us back to the question of whether or not he fits on the Mets?

Well, if you assume Curtis Granderson is a goner given his age, declining production and big price tag, then there is an opening in the OF for sure.  Whether or not Conforto could become a passable CFer is anyone’s guess at this point but Jay Bruce’s best position is probably DH.  They paid Granderson more to play RF than what we’re projecting here for Bruce and with Trumbo’s deal as a yardstick they might be able to shave off that 4th year. 

Of course, a lot depends on what they intend to do at the 1B position as well.  In many ways Lucas Duda is a clone of Bruce and Trumbo – high power, high strikeouts, low batting average but at a lower price point.  He has had that back injury and will be watched like a hawk during 2017.  With Dom Smith working his way rapidly through the farm system, the Mets might be inclined to let him walk away, particularly if he has a subpar year due to poor production or injury.  Right now at $7.25 million for a 30 HR bat he’s a bargain but come 2018 he’ll be looking to cash in.  Would you bring him back?
  
Duda averages .246/26/81 with 144 Ks over a 162 game period.  His other metrics are actually a bit better than Trumbo or Bruce – OBP of .343 SLG of .449 and OPS of .792.  He’s had some injuries (most notably the back surgery in 2016).  A not perfect but adequate comp would be Kendrys Morales who spent much of his career at 1B before turning into a DH.  He averages .273/25/92 over 162 games.  He’s a switch hitter but older at 34.  He just recently signed a 3 year deal with Toronto for $33 million.  I’m thinking on that basis Duda is probably looking at about $27 to 30 million for 3 years. 

Personally I think you either have to extend Duda before the season ends or let him walk away.  You don’t want to get into the Neil Walker QO debacle again.  Extending him seems unlikely as it would block Dom Smith who would provide theoretically a higher batting average and better defense though lesser power.  More importantly to the bean counters, he would cost minimum wage whereas Duda would be in the $10 million or so range. 

My feeling is that the OF pipeline for the Mets is fairly thin.  Obviously Yoenis Cespedes is a fixture in LF.  Whether or not they feel Conforto can play CF is the issue.  It’s the reason I think they’ll send him to Las Vegas to play CF every day, more than to prove he can hit.  If he shows he’s capable of being adequate at the position then it opens up mid-year trade possibilities of Granderson.  If not, then it may be Bruce who they let walk at year end if Conforto’s bat looks solid but the CF play is not.  With at minimum Granderson’s and Duda’s money coming off the books, that’s $22 million – more than enough to absorb Bruce and have plenty left over for pitchers’ salary increases.  Remember, Bruce was not as bad as he looked in August and probably not as good as he looked in the final weeks of September.  The reality is that he’s pretty darned good with the bat, though…and if you want that then you have to pay for it.  

***Separate issue*** Many are applauding loudly for the Mets' 11th hour successes inking Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins to return to the club.  Don't get me wrong.  Those pitchers are fine additions and shore up a projected-to-be leaky bullpen.  It's what should have been done.  Whether those pitchers are the right ones is a subject of some debate, but you're certainly not going to be hurt by offering those contracts.

The problem is that the club is once again exercising its philosophy of maintaining the status quo.  Both of these pitchers (like Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker) were here last year.  The list of players who have departed (other than Bartolo Colon) likely won't be missed.  The issue is that the club is treading water instead of attempting to move forward.  Had you won the World Series then not changing a thing could perhaps be justified.  We all know they eked into the playoffs and were out after a single game.  You'd think that suggests there is room for improvement.

Celebrate the return of two fine pitchers but don't let up on demanding more.  

2/3/17

Richard Herr - So Whaddya Think? - 14.5

Fernando Salas signed
“So whaddya think?”
“Whaddya mean? What do I think?”
“Whaddya think about the Mets re-upping Fernando Salas making that the second sighing of the day ?”
“Prince Charming must’ve walked into the Mets offices and kissed Sleeping Beauty to wake everyone up.”
“Who do you suppose is Sleeping Beauty.”
“I don’t know. Ms. Mette?”



BREAKING NEWS - RP - Fernando Salas


According to WFAN baseball insider Jon Heyman, New York and the right-hander have reached an agreement on a one-year, $3 million contract, pending a physical.
The Mets acquired Salas from the Los Angeles Angels in an Aug. 31 trade. In 17 appearances with New York, he pitched 17 1/3 innings and had a 2.08 ERA.
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/02/03/mets-re-sign-fernando-salas/ 

Stop the Presses! Mets Acquire a Player!!!

Well, not much of a player...Tom Gorzelanny is on a minor league deal that can pay him up to $2.8 million if all incentives are reached, but it comes with an invitation to major league camp.  If I'm Jerry Blevins, Tom's 21.00 ERA for Cleveland last year absolutely has me quaking in my boots over the competition.  Sandy really is playing hardball now 😉