Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS - # 21 GABE YNOA

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS - # 21 GABE YNOA

We got a little glimpse at Gabe Ynoa as a Mets pitcher in 2016.  I was surprised when he pitched by the low to mid-90's velocity, although it seemed hittable. 

The young righty, listed at 6'2", 205, struggled to a 6.38 ERA in just 18.1 major league IP, with a 1.80 WHIP, but (not surprisingly) won his lone decision.

I say "not surprisingly" because Ynoa wins...a lot.

He is 59-30, 3.36 in his minor league career...add in his major league win, and he has won 2/3 of his decisions. 

Ynoa has had a remarkably low minor league walk rate...but also a remarkably low K rate.  Career, 134 BB in 795 IP (1.5 per 9 IP), but the past 2 years, only 160 Ks in 307 IP (a substandard 4.7 per 9 IP).  (813 innings through age 23 is a lot, by the way.

He did more than hold his own in the pitchers' wasteland of Las Vegas, going 12-5, 3.97, with 170 hits and 78 Ks in 154 IP.  That is far better than Seth Lugo and Rob Gsellman managed in Vegas last year, but they far exceeded Ynoa where it counts by putting up strong results at the major league level.  

Ynoa is 24-16 in AA and AAA, a commendable ratio.  Some guys may just get lucky, but the young fella (turns 24 in late May) must have an extra ability to make wins happen, an desirable quality, since baseball is ultimately about wins and losses.

I've long felt his chances of being more than an end-of-the-pen major leaguer rests on his ability to miss more bats...that he should accept a higher walk rate if he can up his K rate to at least low/average.  His low walk rate also is the reason he has allowed a hair more than a hit per inning in the minors, an unusually high number. 

18 major league innings is unfair to over-assess, but hitters made hard contact on him - he needs to improve on finessing hitters and getting then to chase more pitchers' pitches, like Bartolo Colon did.

As of now, I'd say that Ynoa and Rafael Montero are neck and neck for the non-existent 8th starters' spot, which means if 3 Mets starters were to get hurt, he would be the guy picked to slip into that starting slot...I see Thor, Matz, Jake, Harvey, Gsellman, Wheeler, and Lugo ahead of him.

Gabe (and Raffie, as well as quality tossers in Ricky Knapp and Kevin McGowan) likely will open the season in Vegas.  Gabe needs to get the K rate up, keep winning as he always seems to, and be ready. 

My guess is his ceiling is as a major league back end starter, similar to Dillon Gee, but most likely not with the Mets who, at the current time, have elite arms and more apparently on the way in Dunn, Szapucki, and possibly Molina and Kay.  Winners have a way of exceeding predictions, though.  60-30 is a winner's resume.